Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:18 a.m.

Happy July 16th!


 Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather for trading............ or for any other reason.

Still tons of rain in many key locations, the latest forecasts are below.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

   




7 Day Total precip below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                    


Comments
By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:20 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat..........moving back into the N/C Plains and Western Cornbelt.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:21 a.m.
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 Severe Storm Risk...........High Plains.   Press your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:24 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Tuesday......much cooler air in the N/C Plains/Midwest today sinks south and moves east.

                    

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:25 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!

Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:26 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED .....feels like temperature! Still MUGGY today south and east of Chicago but dryer air is pushing south.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:27 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7............Pleasant Midwest to East Coast........intense heat in S.Plains and westward.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    


By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:28 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year. Close  to average in the Midwest to East/Coast!

 Heat backs up to the West! Sizzling in the S.Plains.

High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:28 a.m.
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Midwest fronts are where the action will be!


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:29 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:30 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  Outside of the main Cornbelt!     

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:30 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:31 a.m.
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Rains over the last week, 2 weeks, month and 2 months compared to normal.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:31 a.m.
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Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry.

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:32 a.m.
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Drought has worsened in those areas(KS/AR should be getting some relief, OK/TX will get worse yet):

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

                                    

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:33 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model, pleasant/cool north, blazing heat south and west...........at  least that what this model STILL shows today for the 2nd day in a row. 

Mixed on precip. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:38 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles going out 2 weeks:

Today: Much cooler/Midwest, heat backs up West.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Hot West/S.Plains, Pleasant Midwest to East.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Hot West to S.Plains pleasant Midwest to East.
NCEP Ensemble t = 240 hour forecast product


Day 15  Hot West to High Plains, comfortable Midwest to East.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 9:40 a.m.
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Same questions as the last 2 days:

Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this act to keep the trough from deepening?

Just less than half of the members have this idea.


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By Jim_M - July 16, 2018, 9:41 a.m.
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Went golfing yesterday.  The tee boxes were so hard, it took some work to get in the tees.  Enjoyed the extra 20 some yards I got on my drives.  This particular course only waters the greens.  Public course in a rural area.  Turning a little brown.  Our chances of rain yesterday went from 60% in the morning to 0 by noon.  

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
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Sorry that you missed this rain Jim,

Rains were disappointing in some places, especially the ECB, where you live but good chances return for you late this week.


By wglassfo - July 16, 2018, 10:26 a.m.
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Hi Mike

I wonder how much of that expected rain actually happens

Your maps have shown rain for our area multiple times

However, not a drop

We usually show some variation of light or dark green

Some times we don't even have heavy cloud cover and if it is cloudy

I know there is no rain in those clouds

I notice a good chunk of corn belt also shows green

I wonder if we are the only area missing expected rain

Ill and Ind has good rains but what about all the rest of the corn belt

Some is good but I wonder how much

Must be a lot according to drop in price 

Even accumulated rain is not accurate for our area

The only thing that is probably accurate is the spreading dark red on the maps indicating dry conditions and we are surrounded with dark red

Supposed to rain today from previous maps but no rain

No doubt a lot of aborted kernels on our farm

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 1:04 p.m.
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Hi Wayne,

Sorry that you are not getting all the rain that your crop needs. Watching prices crash lower at the same time has got to be one of a producers least favorite experiences.

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 1:13 p.m.
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Latest, 12Z operational GFS is not a great deal different than the previous runs. A bit cooler in the middle of week 2, then warmer at the end.

Still plenty of rain for the total 2 week period because of the upper level trough in the Midwest. HOT in the West to S.Plains. Need to watch the upper level ridge in the W.Atlantic to see if it builds more westward and tries to merge with the heat ridge in the West US/S.Plains and nudges out the upper level trough in the Midwest/Northeast. 

      

gfs_namer_312_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_312_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_312_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_312_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_312_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_312_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_312_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_312_850_temp_ht_s.gif


Total rains........nothing new:

Thru 10 days below.......small dry pocket

gfs_namer_240_precip_ptot.gif

Thru 15 days lots of blue covering every place below

gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 4:49 p.m.
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The NWS extended forecasts are below.

 Cool Midwest. Hot West to S.Plains to possibly deep South. 

A dry spell in the Central Cornbelt early in week 2, but followed by rain chances returning and the short term forecast for later this week, has rain chances before the dry spell.

 

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability 8-14 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

                                    


            

                

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 4:53 p.m.
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Extreme weather for days 3-7. Heat wave S.Plains and just eastward.

Potential for a ridge rider, perturbation coming over the top of the heat ridge/dome down there to trigger some heavy rains. 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png



By metmike - July 16, 2018, 4:57 p.m.
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Extreme weather for 8-14 day period. The heat ridge/dome is still alive but shifting around. Most likely hot spots will be southwest part of S.Plains(TX) and "possibly" way up in the Pacific Northwest.

The heat which the NWS targets the Pacific Northwest with, does not have alot of model agreement in my opinion..........so call that specific area speculative. However, there will be a large area of intense heat with high confidence from around the Southern Plains to points west of there.

When you have a strong upper level ridge in the Pacific Northwest, the spacing between the main large scale upper level features, makes it very likely for some downstream troughing and cool weather. This is consistent with the cool outlook in the Midwest.

What goes up, must come down?

How about, air moving from lower latitudes to higher latitudes, is going to result in air moving from higher latitudes to lower latitudes somewhere else. 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png

By mcfarm - July 16, 2018, 5:42 p.m.
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well unless I miss my guess {and I am a good weather guesser} our last chance at rain this week just went and gone to the nearby NE. Looks like it was a good one. After all the hype there appears to  not one thing building back to the west....its over its gone,,,not fun this time of year to read hype day after day and see it 90 again crop sinking...my rant......I will feel better in then morning. One last joke it looks like. Our local who has been head cheerleader for this round of rains for days just said {with a straight face} 50% chance of big storms this evening. Now I do not know much but one step outside and one look up and there ain't no 50% of crap tonite...its gone