Happy July 16th!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather for trading............ or for any other reason.
Still tons of rain in many key locations, the latest forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precip below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rainfall threat..........moving back into the N/C Plains and Western Cornbelt.
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk...........High Plains. Press your cursor on the map for full screen.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
High Temperatures today and Tuesday......much cooler air in the N/C Plains/Midwest today sinks south and moves east.
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!
Heat and high humidity COMBINED .....feels like temperature! Still MUGGY today south and east of Chicago but dryer air is pushing south.
Highs days 3-7............Pleasant Midwest to East Coast........intense heat in S.Plains and westward.
How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year. Close to average in the Midwest to East/Coast!
Heat backs up to the West! Sizzling in the S.Plains.
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Here is the latest radar image.
Rains the past 24 hours. Outside of the main Cornbelt!
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Rains over the last week, 2 weeks, month and 2 months compared to normal.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Missouri/Arkansas to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry.
NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet!
Drought has worsened in those areas(KS/AR should be getting some relief, OK/TX will get worse yet):
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
The low skill, longer range CFS model, pleasant/cool north, blazing heat south and west...........at least that what this model STILL shows today for the 2nd day in a row.
Mixed on precip.
Precip below:
Same questions as the last 2 days:
Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be?
Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward? Will this act to keep the trough from deepening?
Just less than half of the members have this idea.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC
Went golfing yesterday. The tee boxes were so hard, it took some work to get in the tees. Enjoyed the extra 20 some yards I got on my drives. This particular course only waters the greens. Public course in a rural area. Turning a little brown. Our chances of rain yesterday went from 60% in the morning to 0 by noon.
Sorry that you missed this rain Jim,
Rains were disappointing in some places, especially the ECB, where you live but good chances return for you late this week.
Hi Mike
I wonder how much of that expected rain actually happens
Your maps have shown rain for our area multiple times
However, not a drop
We usually show some variation of light or dark green
Some times we don't even have heavy cloud cover and if it is cloudy
I know there is no rain in those clouds
I notice a good chunk of corn belt also shows green
I wonder if we are the only area missing expected rain
Ill and Ind has good rains but what about all the rest of the corn belt
Some is good but I wonder how much
Must be a lot according to drop in price
Even accumulated rain is not accurate for our area
The only thing that is probably accurate is the spreading dark red on the maps indicating dry conditions and we are surrounded with dark red
Supposed to rain today from previous maps but no rain
No doubt a lot of aborted kernels on our farm
Hi Wayne,
Sorry that you are not getting all the rain that your crop needs. Watching prices crash lower at the same time has got to be one of a producers least favorite experiences.
Latest, 12Z operational GFS is not a great deal different than the previous runs. A bit cooler in the middle of week 2, then warmer at the end.
Still plenty of rain for the total 2 week period because of the upper level trough in the Midwest. HOT in the West to S.Plains. Need to watch the upper level ridge in the W.Atlantic to see if it builds more westward and tries to merge with the heat ridge in the West US/S.Plains and nudges out the upper level trough in the Midwest/Northeast.
gfs_namer_312_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_312_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_312_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_312_850_temp_ht |
Total rains........nothing new:
Thru 10 days below.......small dry pocket
Thru 15 days lots of blue covering every place below
The NWS extended forecasts are below.
Cool Midwest. Hot West to S.Plains to possibly deep South.
A dry spell in the Central Cornbelt early in week 2, but followed by rain chances returning and the short term forecast for later this week, has rain chances before the dry spell.
Temperature Probability 6-10 day |
Precipitation Probability |
Temperature Probability 8-14 day | |
Precipitation Probability |
Extreme weather for days 3-7. Heat wave S.Plains and just eastward.
Potential for a ridge rider, perturbation coming over the top of the heat ridge/dome down there to trigger some heavy rains.
Extreme weather for 8-14 day period. The heat ridge/dome is still alive but shifting around. Most likely hot spots will be southwest part of S.Plains(TX) and "possibly" way up in the Pacific Northwest.
The heat which the NWS targets the Pacific Northwest with, does not have alot of model agreement in my opinion..........so call that specific area speculative. However, there will be a large area of intense heat with high confidence from around the Southern Plains to points west of there.
When you have a strong upper level ridge in the Pacific Northwest, the spacing between the main large scale upper level features, makes it very likely for some downstream troughing and cool weather. This is consistent with the cool outlook in the Midwest.
What goes up, must come down?
How about, air moving from lower latitudes to higher latitudes, is going to result in air moving from higher latitudes to lower latitudes somewhere else.
well unless I miss my guess {and I am a good weather guesser} our last chance at rain this week just went and gone to the nearby NE. Looks like it was a good one. After all the hype there appears to not one thing building back to the west....its over its gone,,,not fun this time of year to read hype day after day and see it 90 again crop sinking...my rant......I will feel better in then morning. One last joke it looks like. Our local who has been head cheerleader for this round of rains for days just said {with a straight face} 50% chance of big storms this evening. Now I do not know much but one step outside and one look up and there ain't no 50% of crap tonite...its gone