INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 17, 2021, 6:58 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, November 17, 2021  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 658.1)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +5.5%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 278.4)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.7%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2841)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +7.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

 



 

 

                       Total Starts (previous 1.555M)

 

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -1.6%)

 

                       Building Permits (previous 1.589M)

 

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous -7.7%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 435.104M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.002M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 212.703M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.555M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 124.509M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.613M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 86.7%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.29M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.707M)

 



 

 

Thursday, November 18, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 23.8)

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 70.3)

 

                       Employment (previous 30.7)

 

                       New Orders (previous 30.8)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 51.1)

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 32.2)

 

                       Inventories (previous 18.8)

 

                       Shipments (previous 30.0)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 267K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 2160000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +59K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York hosts virtual event on 'An

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Leading Indicators

 



 

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Leading Index (previous 117.5)

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0%)

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3618B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +7B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. Nov. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 25)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 41)

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 31)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 34)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, November 19, 2021  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October State Employment and Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,962.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 6th high crossing at 16,448.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,962.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,425.33.



The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight.Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4629.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 5th high crossing at 4711.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4629.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4493.96. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the October 29th low crossing at 159-15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 164-16. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 164-24. First support is the October 29th low crossing at 159-15. Second support is October's low crossing at 157-03.



December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, October's low crossing at 129.310 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.273 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 131.188. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 131.305. First support is October's low crossing at 129.310. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 129.035.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:December crude oil was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.15 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $85.41. Second resistance is the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.15. Second support is the October 7th low crossing at $74.67.



December heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4740 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3972 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.5280. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $2.5983. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3972. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at 2.2469.  



December unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2.3977 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.2654 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2.3977. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 2.4684. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.2654. Second support is the October 7th low crossing at 2.2073.



December Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.490 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.521 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.490. Second resistance is the November 4th high crossing at 5.876. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.713. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.521.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $96.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $96.27. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $96.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $94.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.36.



The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $112.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.29. First support is the overnight low crossing at $112.68. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $112.48.



The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3646 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3459. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3592. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.3353. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, September's low crossing at 1.0693 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0911 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0859. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0911. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0725. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.0693.  

 

The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the September 29th low crossing at $78.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.38 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.38. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $79.33. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at $78.27.



The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it has renewed this year's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087863 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087863. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.088735. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.08699. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at $1890.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1817.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1879.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at $1890.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1843.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1817.40.



December silver was steady to higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off September's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $26.130 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.397 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $25.490. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $26.130. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.397. Second support is November's low crossing at $23.045.  



December copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's low, October's low crossing at 4.0585 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 4.4890 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.4890. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 4.8230. First support is the November 4th low crossing at 4.2780. Second resistance is October's low crossing at 4.0585.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.60 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, November's high crossing at $5.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $5.94 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.60 1/4. Second support is 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41.    



December wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $8.59 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.82 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.29 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $8.59. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.82 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.46.



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.96 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this year's rally, the May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.55 1/2 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.38 3/4. Second resistance is the May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.55 1/2. First support is the20-day moving average crossing at $7.96 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.52 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $10.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $11.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $10.86 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $11.20. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $10.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.66 1/2.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Overnight trading set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June-August downtrend line crossing near $12.59 1/2 would signal that a short-term trend change is taking place. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.27 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the June-August downtrend line crossing near $12.59 1/2. Second resistance is the October 27th high crossing at $12.66 1/4. First support is November's low crossing at $11.81 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $11.55 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was steady to higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off October's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at $383.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $340.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $376.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at $383.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $350.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $340.40. 


December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 54.18 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 3rd high crossing at 62.44. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 65.00. First support is the September 29th low crossing at 57.02. Second support is September's low crossing at 54.18.       


Comments
By metmike - Nov. 17, 2021, 7:40 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!