Two Weeks in Review
1 response | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - Nov. 21, 2021, 1:06 p.m.

Did another short excursion this weekend,  so this is a little behind schedule.

NFIB Small Business   Optimism_M/MOct-2199.1098.20C-
JOLTS (Job Openings(_M/MSep-2110.439M10.438MC
Empire State Mfg_M/MNov-2119.8030.90B-
Philly Fed Mfg_M/MNov-2123.8039.00B-
Industrial Production_M/MOct-21-1.301.60B-
Retail Sales_M/MOct-211.001.70C+
Consumer Sentiment_M/MNov-2171.7066.80C-
RedBook_W/W 111/6/202115.7015.60C
RedBook_W/W 211/13/202115.6015.20C
Jobless Claims_W/W 111/6/2021269K267KC
Jobless Claims_W/W 211/13/2021267K268KC
Housing Market Index_M/MNov-2180.0083.00C+
Housing Starts_M/MOct-211.530M1.520MC
Housing Permits_M/MOct-211.589M1.650MC+
Leading Indicators_M/MOct-210.200.90B-

Some good data over the last 2 weeks.

CPI continues to make new ground, exceeding the worst expectations at .9 for 6.2 annual, an increase over the previous painful 5.4.

Consumers and Small Business are not too happy.

In spite of that, Retail Sales had a very strong increase of 1.7% and RedBook remains very high.

Jobless Claims have stabalized in the mid 200k range.   I don't think it  can get much lower, even with employers extremely reluctant to fire in this buyers market.

Job Openings remain well over 10 million.   This metric is typically around 7 million during boom times. We had a record 4.4 million voluntary quits as employees take advantage of the abundant greener pastures.

Housing is starting to show some movement.  The Index was up a few tics,  tho at a historically low level. Starts were steady and permits up nicely.

As we know, Housing Permits weigh heavily on Leading Indicators which jumped to .9.

MFG continues to be a bright spot. Empire State and Philly showed outsized growth while Industrial Production did a total 180 with 1.6% growth and 76.4% Capacity.

In spite of the good news,  I am not comfortable with going higher than C+ this week.  Inflation is a major red flag for me at this time. It has to be brought back under control or some of this other stuff will start falling apart.


By metmike - Nov. 21, 2021, 1:15 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much Tim!