KC wheat
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Started by metmike - Nov. 21, 2021, 8:55 p.m.

Weather has turned more bullish/dry in drought areas for the Hard Red Winter wheat!

It almost gapped higher, opening at the highs from Friday and is up over 10c.


It's NOT a key time frame but they don't need additional drying out ahead of Winter in areas that have low soil moisture already.

They've had timely planting and now, ideally, this is the time of year they need to gradually cool off,  so the plants can ease into dormancy and harden off slowly.

MA temps coming up will prevent the wheat from going dormant the next 2 weeks and dry soils will increase chances for desiccation and Winterkill this Winter.

If we have a major cold snap in December, with the plants NOT dormant yet  they will be vulnerable to some damage.

The optimal Winter wheat weather right now would be gradually cooler temps and good precip. We have unseasonable warmth and no precip......the opposite, even if is late November.


Drought monitor:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75004/#75015

Drought Monitor for conus



https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75004/#75014

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile


Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)


Comments
Re: KC wheat
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By metmike - Nov. 21, 2021, 8:57 p.m.
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Forecast the next week..............NO PRECIP in many key KC growing areas!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75004/#75007

The latest precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                    

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++

And with MUCH above temperatures!



            

Highs for days 3-7:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif


                

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif


By metmike - Nov. 21, 2021, 9 p.m.
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Forecast for week 2...........NO PRECIP in those same areas, until late in the period with some precip possibly in the northwest part of the belt.

Dry in KS/OK/TX.

With Above to Much Above temps that will increase drying rates.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75004/#75013



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif


8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

By metmike - Nov. 21, 2021, 9:03 p.m.
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Total 16 day precip from the just out GFS ensemble mean. Mostly dry in the Plains. 


By metmike - Nov. 21, 2021, 9:34 p.m.
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Crop rating from last Monday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/77866/


The SRW is doing great in most areas.

The HRW is a potential disaster in TX, CO, WA, OR, MT. Most of the states with double digit P/VP ratings are all HRW states.

Key states NE and especially KS/OK are doing OK right now but this weather will definitively make them more vulnerable.

It's early and if there are no sudden extreme cold snaps, and if  precip increases then there will be no consequences from the weather there the next 2 weeks.

It just makes the crop much more vulnerable!


By bowyer - Nov. 22, 2021, 1:41 p.m.
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Thank you for this post last night ! Talked to a relative out in Kansas this morning and he confirmed everything you said !

By metmike - Nov. 22, 2021, 7:04 p.m.
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Appreciate the comment bowyer!

The wheat condition deteriorated 2% on today's crop report........all into the P/VP category.

The weather still looks unseasonably mild with no precip in most of those key locations.

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog4821.txt

By bowyer - Nov. 23, 2021, 6:27 p.m.
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Again...Good call on the KC wheat. I've been long the spring wheat off and on all year. (and oats). I'll watch your forecasts for wheat country !

By metmike - Nov. 23, 2021, 6:39 p.m.
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Thanks man!

Still no significant precip the next 2 weeks in the Plains. I'll try to update frequently but may miss a few days.

By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 12:37 p.m.
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KC wheat weather is still BULLISH. The spike lower was from a new COVID variant concern. Actually we gapped way lower on the open, then barely filled the gap which is a gap  reversal and gap and crap formation........potentially selling exhaustion signal......very bullish if there is confirmation(close higher) But the volatile environment from outside markets makes the signal less reliable.

The top of the gap could also serve as resistance of buyers are afraid to push their case in the face of bearish COVID news.

2 week rains below.

By metmike - Nov. 28, 2021, 7:31 p.m.
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Still no precip and much above temperatures for the Plains the next 2 weeks.

It's December but if the market wants to trade this weather.......it's bullish for KC wheat.


By metmike - Nov. 28, 2021, 7:35 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 29, 2021, 10:24 a.m.
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Still no sign of needed precip..........but it's December and the affect of weather is limited on crops in the Northern Hemisphere at this time of year(which would only be Winter Wheat) is limited.........and prices are at record highs.

So wheat gapped higher over night but filled the gap this morning when the funds came in selling from the get go.........which is a gap and crap, bearish buying exhaustion formation. Pretty negative signature on the charts!

Here's a good discussion/explanation for gap and craps.

                Gap and Crap buying(selling) exhaustion formation            

                            1 response |         

                Started by metmike - Aug. 30, 2019, 6:12 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38044/



By metmike - Nov. 30, 2021, 3:53 p.m.
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Precip chances are up a bit in places outside the Plains but still pretty dry in the Plains and bullish weather.........for December with MA temps in KS/NE drying out and the HRW NOT going dormant/hardening off in preparation for Winter........... making the crop much more vulnerable this Winter. 

However, the time of year and this current volatile and uncertain trading environment means that this is NOT a good item to use in deciding what the market will trade, especially on any one day. 

If we see a sudden cold snap in late December that features sub zero temps in the S.Plains, on wheat not completely dormant and dry soils.........that should inspire some good spec buying on WInterkill expectations. 

Latest weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

@kannbwx

·

Nov. 30: CBOT March #wheat futures dropped 4.3%, touching 3-week lows and ending at $7.87-1/4 per bu as coronavirus fears battered commodities. Dec wheat ended down 4.2%, the front-month contract's biggest daily dive since Aug. 12, 2019.

Image

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2021, 3:09 p.m.
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Precip chances up a bit more today, with the potential for the Plains getting into a bit of the action......but only light there.