INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 22, 2021, 8:20 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, November 22, 2021   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous -0.13)

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.25)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Existing Home Sales

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales (previous 6.29M)

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +7.0%)

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.4)

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 352800)

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +13.3%)

 



 

 

Tuesday, November 23, 2021   

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.2%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +14.7%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 58.6; previous 59.2)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 58.7; previous 58.2)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 12)

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous 1)

 



 

 

1:00 PM ET. October Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.7M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.8M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.1M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, November 24, 2021   

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 639.9)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.8%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 282.5)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.5%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2695)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 262K: previous 268K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 2080000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -129K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.4%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.0%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

 

                        

 

8:30 AM ET. October Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.0%)

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +5.7%; previous +5.7%)

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +13.6%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.3%)

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.4%)

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous -0.1%)

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.5%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Personal Income & Outlays

 

                       Personal Income, M/M%                 +0.2%      -1%

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M%               +1.0%      +0.6%

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M%                              +0.3%

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y%                              +4.4%

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M%              +0.4%      +0.2%

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%              +4.1%      +3.6%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 797K: previous 800K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -0.4%: previous +14.0%)

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 66.8; previous 71.7)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 67.9)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.8%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.7)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 433.003M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.101M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 211.996M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.707M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 123.685M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.824M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 87.9%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.629M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +2.339M)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3644B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +26B)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

 



 

 

Thursday, November 25, 2021  

 



 

 

  N/A               Marianas: Thanksgiving Day

 

  N/A               U.S.: Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets closed

 



 

 

Friday, November 26, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1044.6K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1374.9K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 399.1K)

 



 

 

1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early after Thanksgiving

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,131.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 16,649.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 16,131.76. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,490.92.



The December S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight.Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overnight, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4652.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4723.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4652.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4508.10. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, November's high crossing at 164-01 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, the October 29th low crossing at 159-15 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 164-01. Second resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 164-16. First support is the October 29th low crossing at 159-15. Second support is October's low crossing at 157-03.



December T-notes were lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.262 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the aforementioned decline, October's low crossing at 129.310 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 131.118. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 131.305. First support is October's low crossing at 129.310. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 129.035.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:January crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $72.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.06. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $83.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $75.03. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $72.30.



January heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $2.2393 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4279 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.3890. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4279. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $2.2393. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $2.1573 .  



January unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 2.1036. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2853 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2853. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 2.3825. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 2.1036. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 2.0280.



January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.623 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.559 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.559. Second resistance is the November 4th high crossing at 5.975. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.811. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.623.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $96.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $96.27. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $96.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $95.39. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.56.



The December Euro was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $113.98. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.01. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $112.48. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.60.



The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3549 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223 is the next downside target.First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3549. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3624. First support is November's low crossing at 1.3353. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off November's high, September's low crossing at 1.0693 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0853. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0895. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0725. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.0693.  

 

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the September 29th low crossing at $78.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.12 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.59. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.12. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $78.97. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at $78.27.



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087837 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off November's high, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087837. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 0.088735. First support is November's low crossing at 0.086990. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at $1890.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1826.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1879.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at $1890.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1826.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1791.50.



December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.459 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $26.130 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $25.490. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $26.130. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.459. Second support is November's low crossing at $23.045.  



December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 4.4890 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's low, October's low crossing at 4.0585 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 4.4890. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 4.8230. First support is the September 30th low crossing at 4.0545. Second resistance is September's low crossing at 4.0160.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at $5.86 would confirm an upside breakout of the May-June downtrend line while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $5.86. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $5.94 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.66. Second support is 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44 3/4.   



December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $8.59 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.94 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.43 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $8.59. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.15 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.94 1/4.



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.07 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.58 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.07 3/4. Second support is November's low crossing at $7.74. 



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $11.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $9.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $10.86 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $11.20. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $9.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.75 1/4.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans were higher overnight. Overnight trading set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.41 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If January extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $13.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing near $12.89 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $13.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.41 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at $11.81 1/4.  

 

December soybean meal was steady to higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at $383.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $347.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $382.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at $383.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $362.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $347.40. 



December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 54.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the November 3rd high crossing at 62.44. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 65.00. First support is the September 29th low crossing at 57.02. Second support is September's low crossing at 54.18.       


Comments
By metmike - Nov. 22, 2021, 10:40 a.m.
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