Weather December/January 2022
59 responses | 1 like
Started by metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:02 p.m.

Most maps below are constantly updated

Latest National radar images

Static mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg



            This link below provides some great data. Hit the center of the box below for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations.

 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains Southern Plains Midwest East Central Northeast Southeast 



By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:03 p.m.
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Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.



By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:04 p.m.
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Surface moisture in the air:

Current Dew Points


By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:04 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:05 p.m.
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Excessive rain threat.

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:05 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated constantly.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook



By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:09 p.m.
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U.S. Snow Depth and Snow Accumulation

National Snow Analyses

Current Snow Depth

Static map

1 week ago below

Static map

2 weeks ago week ago below

Static map

Winter weather link from the NWS experts:

Snowfall the next  week. Updated Jan 24

Weather Model

Snowfall the next 2 weeks updated Jan 24

Weather Model

By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:10 p.m.
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Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:10 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:



By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:11 p.m.
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Lows days 3-7 below:



By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:11 p.m.
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Extended weather.

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:12 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:13 p.m.
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U.S. Drought Monitor

There's been tremendous improvement along the West Coast the past 2+ months

Updated  January 12, 2022

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:16 p.m.
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december 17: Just updated weeks 3-4 forecast that goes out to Janurary 14th......extremely mild in the south, cold North and West.

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature ProbabilityWeek 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability


By metmike - Nov. 26, 2021, 10:21 p.m.
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12-19-21: The NAO and AO crash to solidly negative(with alot of spread/uncertainty-PNA heads towards 0 late in the period) which is favorable for cold air to move from north to  south from higher latitudes to the middle latitudes.

12-22-21: Every day for the past 3-4 days has seen a HIGHER AO and HIGHER NAO. Now, they both go to 0, which is neutral.  In fact, the NAO does NOT take the huge dive into negative territory, it stays near 0. The AO has a very wide spread. The PNA stays solidly negative which extremely favors the cold in the West(not the East).

12-23-21: No changes. Not as cold as 4-5 days ago.

12-26-21: Extreme cold NorthCentral to Northwest. Very mild Southeast.

Solidly negative AO brings frigid air from Canada south. Near 0 NAO makes it hard for it to penetrate to the Southeast US.....we need a -NAO for that.  -PNA favors cold in the West but it increases at the end of the period, suggesting the cold could push farther southeast.

12-30-21: Huge changes in the indices. AO has numerous positive members that would make it unfavorable for cold to move from high to mid latitudes.......but a wide spread with some still negative and favorable for cold. NAO is positive but dips to 0 briefly. This will make it tough for cold to penetrate deeply into the Southeast. The biggest change is the long lived solidly negative PNA gets back to 0, with moderate confidence. This will cause the West to warm up from the recent extreme cold.

12-31-21: Very similar to yesterday. WARMING WEST! Farther east very uncertain.

1-3-22: Happy New Year. Indices are still not very favorable for sustained extreme cold air in the Midwest/East. But there is uncertainty because of the potential PNA pattern change.

1-4-22: Indices at the end take a turn towards being slightly more favorable for sustained cold but are still only near 0 and thats at the very uncertain end.

1-5-21: AO and NAO now drop below 0 at the end of 2 weeks. More favorable for cold now.

1-6-21: Exact same, outlook as 1-5. AO/NAO moving colder. Some graphs/maps below did not update today.

1-11-12: indices lean cold with wide spread on AO

1-14-22: Almost off the charts spread in AO. NAO close to 0(neutral). PNA is positive. Late week 2 has been looking LESS cold the last 2 days but still COLD.

1-15-22: Indices still favor cold. AO colder today mainly because not as many +AO members as yesterday. Still a wide spread. NAO close to 0 with wide spread. Solidly +PNA drops to 0 at the end......might try to oppose cold farther east?

1-19-22: Indices have shifted to taking out cold risks. Both AO and NAO now go solidly positive with good agreement. PNA drops to negative which shifts cold risks farther west and helps warm the east/downstream.

1-20-22: Same as yesterday with a very wide spread for the AO.

1-22-22: AO spread is huge and added some extreme negatives(cold). NAO drifts lower late in the period, potentially colder than yesterday. PNA dropping, favoring the cold in the West.


Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook


NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

12-19-21: This is the 500mb anomaly below at the end of the period....15 days.... from the GFS ensemble mean. All the anomalies and teleconnections are favorable for cold air delivery into the US.

12-22-21: COLD WEST with extremely high confidence. Very mild Southeast with moderate confidence.

12-=23-21: No changes.

12-26-21: Cold may get a bit better low level push southeast but the positive heights in the Southeast will try to resist.......with the resistance weakening in week 2.

12-30-21: Tremendous change in the anomalies out West. Going from the very strong/deep negative anomaly to a positive anomaly. Lots of change and movement and uncertainty in the East.

12-31-21: Anomalies NOT favorable for cold air to move from high latitudes to low latitudes............but amplification of the Western ridge/positive anomaly could change that. Warmest temps shift to the WEST........high confidence!

1-3-22: The anomalies at 360 hours have been moving around so much recently that I wouldn't put much weighting on today's model guess!

1-4-22: This is the solution from the 0Z run of the GFS ensemble. The anomalies look favorable on this run for some major cold to hit the high population areas of the US. The European model was actually MILDER on the same run. Much uncertainty.

1-5-22: Ridge Alaska/Trough near N.Plains is a nice POTENTIAL cold air delivery couplet. Uncertainty is high.

1-6-22: Favorable ridge/positive anomaly/Alaska, trough downstream along the Canadian border for cold delivery.

1-14-22: Still favorable ridge/positive anomaly/Alaska/western North America to Siberia and trough/negative anomaly downstream in eastern North America..favorable for cold air delivery that is!

1-15-22: Very similar to previous week+. One new element recently is that half of the ensembles are trying to fill in the upper level trough in the East and create more zonal flow.  Those solutions looked more impressive on Thursday, which is maybe why ng gave back all the gains from the previous day.

1-19-22: Large scale pattern and anomalies are retrograding(moving west). Cold that had been targeting the Midwest/East........"backs up" and is targeting the West with the East warming up.

1-20-22: Really warming up in the East and cooling off in the West. Back to the December pattern.

1-21-22: Some extreme cold...coldest on the planet in West/Central Canada. Target looks like the northwestern 1/3 to 1/2 of US while it stay mild in the southwestern 1/2 of the US.  Very similar to December and what a typical La Nina causes.

                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Nov. 28, 2021, 7:36 p.m.
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No real changes the last couple of days. Most of the maps above are updated constantly/automatically.

By metmike - Nov. 29, 2021, 11:23 a.m.
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Models and indices are even milder at the end of 2 weeks today!

+AO, +NAO and -PNA very unfavorable for cold air delivery into the US at the end of the period!

By metmike - Nov. 30, 2021, 2:38 p.m.
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12z models this morning were COLDER.

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2021, 9:21 p.m.
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Very mild outlook for week 2!

By metmike - Dec. 2, 2021, 7:09 p.m.
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Still very mild for December the next 2 weeks. Precip chances increasing in week 2.

By metmike - Dec. 5, 2021, 8:20 a.m.
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Still extremely mild in week 2!

Some of the frigid weather in Canada sneaks south of the border!

By WxFollower - Dec. 5, 2021, 5:08 p.m.
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 As you and the ensemble means keep showing, it continues to look quite mild out two weeks while the MJO allows for the zonal flow to continue. The question continues to be when the MJO will finally shift enough left in the diagram to allow what models have been showing to be a pretty large area of the coldest on the globe persisting in W Canada next week to later bodily come down into the US. The ante is very high on the potential for a very sharp change from quite mild to potentially frigid cokd to dominate starting in about two weeks central US and about 3 weeks E US and then going at least for several weeks. The CFS (essentially an extension of GETS) is a model with very low credibility as I like to say since it looks out so far, but unfortunately one has to look out that far for any possible hints of potential cold to actually plunge well down into a good portion of the US. Fwiw, it has been suggesting that possibility on some runs.

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2021, 12:54 a.m.
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Agree Larry!

There looks to be a pretty good chance for turning colder at the end of the 2 week period and Canada will be loaded with frigid air as you mentioned.

So any model runs that update showing a strong cold front from Canada penetrating deeply south vs previous runs will add double digit HDD's and be pretty bullish at that time.

However, the bottom will be in, not from a model run suddenly showing an individual cold shot thats much colder but from the shift in the configuration of the large scale features that allows more sustained cold coming south from Canada.

That might start with an individual stronger cold front. 

Also, cold dense air moving south out of Canada is often not handled well by the models. It frequently is able to undercut warmer air aloft and an upper level pattern that looks warm but the shallow very cold air near the surface goes hundreds of miles farther south than the models thought that it would. 

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2021, 11:02 a.m.
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No changes today!

By metmike - Dec. 7, 2021, 12:59 a.m.
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Latest MJO forecasts continue to suggest high potential to go from the current phase 6(which historically has WARM analogs for much of the US) to phase 7 in around 2 weeks.........which flips to cold analogs,  especially in the middle of the country. A continuation to phase 8 by early January would push the cold even farther east.

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and
Update prepared by the Climate Prediction CenterClimate Prediction Center / NCEP      
6 December 2021

By metmike - Dec. 7, 2021, 10:27 a.m.
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Weather models, today outside of the potential MJO influence show no signs of the current mild weather regime changing at 2 weeks.

By metmike - Dec. 9, 2021, 12:22 p.m.
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The weather headline on Thursday is the enhanced potential for severe storms late Friday/Friday Night that included rotating storms that turn into strong tornadoes!

More on this later today!

By metmike - Dec. 10, 2021, 11:40 a.m.
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New weather thread updating on developing severe weather outbreak threat:

Weather update post on extended forecast for natural gas traders:

By metmike - Dec. 12, 2021, 7:52 p.m.
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Some pretty good precip coming up for drought areas of the West Coast:

By metmike - Dec. 15, 2021, 6:07 p.m.
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Severe storms with the current system in the upper Midwest with with surface low, jet stream and upper level dynamics shifted around 800 miles farther northwest of the one late last week. 

Severe weather is unlikely when this system comes thru as a cold front in the areas hit by the tornadoes last week.


Look how deep the low pressure storm is!

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2021, 2:55 a.m.
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See the latest extended  wx discussion on the MJO here:

By metmike - Dec. 17, 2021, 3:20 p.m.
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The pattern is setting up to turn into a cold northern US, warm southern US regime as the month goes with tremendous uncertainty on how far south the cold will go.

A slight shift north or south will mean a huge difference in temperatures for areas in the tightest part of the temperature gradient.

Re: Re: Weather
By metmike - Dec. 18, 2021, 3:15 a.m.
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Confidence in major cold along with the polar vortex shifting pretty far south at the end of december And intensifying in early January is going way up!

Stay tumed.

By metmike - Dec. 18, 2021, 12:32 p.m.
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Early January is shaping up to be extremely cold in the US!

By metmike - Dec. 19, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
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6Z and 12Z Sunday models were all much milder than the previous runs after being colder for several solutions. 

Same basic pattern, 

except the temperature bands all shift north 100+ miles and the temp gradient is so tight with this pattern, that  it makes a difference of 10 HDD's.

All the weather is here........warm week coming up for the southern 2/3rds. No White Christmas this year!

Then, turning sharply colder.......but how cold in early January?

By metmike - Dec. 22, 2021, 2:53 p.m.
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Latest MJO discussion.

Signal appears to be weakening.

By metmike - Dec. 22, 2021, 5:55 p.m.
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Latest week 2 analysis here:

Just Updated the key factors for week 2 weather here for you:

By metmike - Dec. 26, 2021, 12:02 p.m.
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Latest update for 12-26-21

Frigid air Northwest to NorthCentral this week.......very mild Southeast but the low level cold bleeds farther and farther south,....and east....especially in week 2.

By metmike - Dec. 28, 2021, 11:18 p.m.
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Latest MJO discussion:

 Both velocity potential based MJO and RMM indices indicate an active West Pacific MJO event with little continued eastward propagation in recent weeks.
 There is disagreement among the dynamical models regarding the predicted evolution of the MJO, leading to continued uncertainty in the outlook.
 Tropical cyclone formation is favored over the southern Pacific where any coherence of the MJO is more likely to manifest itself during the next two weeks.
 While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.

By metmike - Dec. 29, 2021, 10:32 a.m.
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By metmike - Dec. 30, 2021, 9:06 p.m.
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Week 1 features the frigid air in West to the Plains shifting eastward but moderating a great deal in the process.

Week 2 is a continuation of that shift but with a pattern change that starts a massive warm up out West and the brand of cold hitting the East being modest.


By metmike - Dec. 31, 2021, 10:04 a.m.
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Same forecast philosophy today!

Most of the other maps above are updated constantly.

January 2, 2022
By metmike - Jan. 2, 2022, 2:47 p.m.
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Will start a new weather thread this week.

This one is still being updated.

January 6, 2022
By metmike - Jan. 6, 2022, 12:04 p.m.
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Frigid temps currently. Latest longer term outlook at this link:


Current snow event along and south of Ohio River.

                Snow to water equivalent                         

               Started by metmike - Jan. 5, 2022, 11:51 p.m.                                                    

The upcoming snow here in Evansville IN and just south is going to be unusually dry because the temperature will be around 20 deg. F (and colder air holds much less moisture).

By metmike - Jan. 6, 2022, 12:37 p.m.
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Lastest MJO discussion. It SHOULD be causing cold in the US the next several weeks under normal circumstances.

 MJO propagation has stalled near the Date Line, likely due to the destructive interference with La
 Dynamical models exhibit large spread regarding the evolution of the MJO over the next 2 weeks,
with a meandering intraseasonal signal depicted in the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles.

The MJO is in and going to a state that historically causes the greatest cold influence in the US......phase 7 going to phase 8.

By WxFollower - Jan. 7, 2022, 12:09 p.m.
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 I just talked to a meteorologist at CPC about the lack of teleconnection indices the last two days. Here is an email I sent him for documentation (he asked me to do this) and which summarizes the problem:

“Thanks for calling me back. I'm sending you this email as documentation of what I called you about. The normally daily updated PNA, AO, NAO, and MJO have not updated the last two days. I monitor these daily and was calling to find out the problem. I don't recall ever seeing two days in a row of no updates. You told me that it was based on an NCEP system issue and that it should be resolved by Sunday or Monday.
I'm not a meteorologist but have learned a lot and do follow weather every day as a hobby.
If you have any further updates, please feel free to email me.”

By metmike - Jan. 7, 2022, 2:13 p.m.
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Larry, no where else could I/we receive extremely useful information like that.

I very grateful to you. Was wondering the exact same thing and noted the absence of that data on my updates yesterday(which is likely why you pointed this out for us).

Thanks a ton! You're the best!

Even BETTER than most meteorologists when it comes to tracking weather and how it affects natural gas, cotton, coffee and hurricances!!!

Not saying that just to make you feel's a rock solid fact!

By tjc - Jan. 7, 2022, 2:38 p.m.
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Please begin a new "gas" post sunday afternoon.

I bought a feb call based upon my cycle work which was reinforced by your combined "colder" forecasts winning out over warming posts.

Wednesday I had hope, Thursday I was disappointed, but today optimistic.

MetMike, you have noted to the Forum that I approach highly speculative WEATHER trades with options.  YES, I pay premium, but loss is defined AND the contemplated reward seems justified.  One win usually pays for 3 attempts.

Again, frustrating wipsaw week---draw down

By metmike - Jan. 7, 2022, 4:42 p.m.
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i hear you tjc...very frustrating spikes up and down this week but the trend has been up/colder late week 2.

Just added this snow graphic/info:

By metmike - Jan. 11, 2022, 3:58 p.m.
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Still looking pretty cold the next 2 weeks, especially Midwest to northeast.

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2022, 9:46 a.m.
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0z European model was especially cold overnight.

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2022, 2:26 a.m.
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                Snow event coming up          

                                           Started by metmike - Jan. 13, 2022, 2:17 a.m

By metmike - Jan. 14, 2022, 12:48 p.m.
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Updated extended large scale anomalies/indices.

By metmike - Jan. 15, 2022, 9:40 p.m.
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Updated extended discussion/maps:

By metmike - Jan. 17, 2022, 1:21 p.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 19, 2022, 12:41 p.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 20, 2022, 12:49 p.m.
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Updated Extended analysis:


By metmike - Jan. 21, 2022, 12:37 p.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 21, 2022, 1:32 p.m.
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Latest MJO discussion from earlier in the week:

 Following a period of renewed eastward propagation earlier in January, the RMM index indicates the MJO has lost much of its amplitude, falling within the unit circle during the last week.
 Dynamical models generally show the MJO remaining weak and incoherent as other modes of tropical variability are favored to prevail over the Indian Ocean and Pacific through the end of January.

By metmike - Jan. 23, 2022, 3:32 p.m.
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