Higher probability trade tonight.
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Started by Jim_M - Nov. 28, 2021, 4:45 p.m.

What do you think the higher probability trade is tonight?  Crude up or NG down?  I’m going with NG down.  Hard to tell what crude could do.  We should be able to tell pretty quick the mood on the new variant by what crude does.

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By metmike - Nov. 28, 2021, 4:54 p.m.
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By Jim_M - Nov. 28, 2021, 5:49 p.m.
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Already read it.  :)

By metmike - Nov. 28, 2021, 6:29 p.m.
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Thanks Jim!

By metmike - Nov. 28, 2021, 8:28 p.m.
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We are at a much higher risk than usual for COVID news to hit the markets with a surprise right now.

We are bouncing back some from Friday's brutal sell off on the new omicron strain news and maybe the markets will just take stuff like this in stride as not that big of a deal.

Everybody remembers the Spring of 2020 when the initial COVID news first hit.

Lots of Sunday Nights featured gaps lower on the open for the energies that took everything else down with them.

We are entering the seasonal virus season, when historically, the flu ALWAYS increases. 

COVID is likely to increase as a result but the vaccinations so far should keep it from being as bad to the market as it was in 2020.............but this is still very uncharted territory.

That risk and the new strain are just potential risks.

They may not ever materialize as major but we saw what happened on Friday.

Grains are holding up nicely so far with the weather actually turning bullish(and crude stabilizing from the Fri crash).....but I wouldn't have wanted to be long over the short Thanksgiving break and gaps lower on Friday from the COVID news.

And it can happen again on any bad news about COVID that the market over reacts to.

KC wheat

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78153/


Beans

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75828/


 COVID news:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78356/

By MarkB - Nov. 29, 2021, 12:55 a.m.
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Both were a good probability, given the knee-jerk reaction on friday. Moderna was up tremendously. Imagine that! They're making good money off of fools.

By metmike - Nov. 29, 2021, 3:01 a.m.
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Both S and W have island bottoms....potentially very bullish!

Gaps lower fri, then gaps higher tonight, stranding a 1 day trading island from Friday below the trading of today and the previous day.

Looks like the KE wheat actually  filled its gap on fri which was a bullish gap and crap selling exhaustion formation.

We’ll see if the beans can stay above it’s gap gigher tonight and hope the funds are in a buying mood later this morning.

By metmike - Nov. 29, 2021, 10 a.m.
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Funds were in a selling mood/mode from the get go.

It's possible that the high risk of bad COVID news is scaring away alot of buyers.


Beans and wheat had a gap and crap buying exhaustion formation on the trading charts overnight.........after the funds came in selling this morning and closed last nights gap higher. Pretty bearish technical signature.

Here's a good discussion/explanation for gapandcraps.

                GapandCrap buying(selling) exhaustion formation            

                            1 response |         

                Started by metmike - Aug. 30, 2019, 6:12 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38044/