INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 2, 2021, 7:38 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, December 2, 2021  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +27.53%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 199K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -71K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 2049000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -60K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3623B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -21B)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, December 3, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +531K)

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous 4.6%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous -73K)

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +604K)

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 61.6%)

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 58.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November ISM Report On Business Services PMI

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 66.7)

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 69.8)

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 82.9)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 51.6)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 69.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. November Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 55.6)

 



 

 

N/A               Latest deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown  

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp decline.Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,608.67 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 16,456.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 16,456.25. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 16,767.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 15,825.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,608.67.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the October 12th low crossing at 4317.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4654.04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4650.04. Second resistance is the November 22nd high crossing at 4740.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4497.75. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at 4317.25.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they extend the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 163-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-27 are needed to signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 163-27. Second resistance is the August 23rd high crossing at 164-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-27.



March T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 131.171. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.009 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 131.100. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 131.171. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.009. Second support is November's low crossing at 128.225.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:January crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $63.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $72.42. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.13. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $64.43. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $63.75.



January heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $1.9823 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3226 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.2235. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3226. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $2.0656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at $1.9823.  



January unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 1.8665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1891 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.1035. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1891. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 1.9434. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-October rally crossing at 1.8665.



January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it bounces off support marked by the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.137. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.593 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.050 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.859. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.050. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.137. Second support is August's low crossing at 4.009.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the June-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $97.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $96.94. Second resistance is the June-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $97.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.63.



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.84. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.30. First support is November's low crossing at $111.90. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.60.



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.349 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2906 is the next downside target.First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3409. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3565. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2906.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 1.1017 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0803 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1017. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1103. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0803. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0673. 

 

The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $77.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.25 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $77.89. Second support is September's low crossing at $77.53. 



The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last- Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 0.089293 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.087791 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 0.089293. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 0.089943. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.087791. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.086565. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at $1761.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1823.90 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1823.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1881.90. First support is the November 3rd low crossing at $1761.00. Second support is September's low crossing at $1723.70.



March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at $21.460 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.141 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.617. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.141. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $22.185. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.460.  



March copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Friday's high, November's low crossing at 4.2000 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4.5115 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4.5115. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 4.8230. First support is November's low crossing at 4.2000. Second support is the September 30th low crossing at 4.0400.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.59 3/4 would mark a downside breakout of the November-December trading range and would open the door for additional weakness possibly into the end of the year. If March renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $5.99 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $5.96 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $5.99 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $5.62 1/2. Second support is 50-day moving average crossing at $5.59 3/4.    



March wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.81 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.28 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.28 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.81 1/2. Second support is the July-September uptrend line crossing near $7.67 3/4.



March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.87 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews this year's rally, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.50 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $8.92 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.50 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $8.11 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.87 1/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $9.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $11.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $10.66 1/4. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $11.20. First support is November's low crossing at $9.91 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.84 1/2.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at $11.81 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.51 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $12.89 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $13.17. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $12.14 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at $11.81 1/4.  

 

March soybean meal was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $336.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $351.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $351.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at $372.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $336.60. Second support is the November 8th low crossing at $325.90. 



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. March extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 54.30 is the next downside target. If Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 61.44. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 63.29. First support is the overnight low crossing at 54.69. Second support is September's low crossing at 54.30.       


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.03 at $80.00. 



February hogs posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the November 10th low crossing at $77.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.14 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $84.68. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $87.48. First support is the November 10th low crossing at $77.67. Second support is November's low crossing at $77.10. 



February cattle closed up $0.80 at $138.70. 



February cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews this fall's rally, the March 2016 high on the continuation chart crossing at $141.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $141.85. Second resistance is the March 2016 high on the continuation chart crossing at $141.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.65. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.40. 



January Feeder cattle closed up $1.28 at $166.13. 



January feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at $170.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $168.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $170.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $163.81. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.39. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 224.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 258.65 is the next upside target.   



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high.  The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high July's low crossing at 23.13 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's gap crossing at 24.95 would signal that a low has been posted.  



March sugar closed unchanged on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, August's low crossing at 18.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 



March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off November's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. If March extends the aforementioned decline, October's low crossing at 101.31 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at 111.11 would signal that a low has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 2, 2021, 10:25 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Markets will be at a higher risk for negative COVID news thru the rest of the year at least.


Lumber

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78524/


Natural Gas........almost as bearish as it gets for weather but a bounce after the 12z models came out colder on Tue, then a crash overnight as the European models was enormously milder. Sharply lower again Wednesday. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/77992/


Main weather thread:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/


KC Wheat......gap and crap buying exhaustion.........powerful bearish technical formation on Monday AM ...wx is NOT being traded.......rain chances increasing a bit. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78153/


Beans......also a gap and crap buying exhaustion.........bearish technical formation on Monday AM... Argentina wx still bullish and will likely inspire a rally at some point in December if it continues. Maybe we started that today??? 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75828/


Exports

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78467/


Higher probability trades........Jim

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78437/



Moderna rattles the market

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78482/


Pfizers treatment for COVID

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78483/


Gold/Silver

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78488/


Cattle

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78480/


Crop conditions...........KC wheat/HRW crop is  bad

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78478