https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-12-09/Thursday-s-Forex-Analytical-Charts-December-09.html
going into a wedge the last few weeks. will it break up or down?
this may also tell us which way the metals will go.
bear
CPI 8:30 tomorrow followed by Consumer Sentiment at 10 will have input for your question.
Consensus is things are heating up - may cause a bid for the buck.
John
Anyone know what expectations are for CPI and consumer sentiment?
CPI
Core Inflation Previous YoY 4.6
Forecast YoY 4.9
Inflation Rate Previous YoY 6.2
Forecast YoY 6.8
Thanks 7475. I found this on Bloomberg:
It’s a huge day for U.S. data. Inflation, which a year ago economists were forecasting at 2% for this year, is projected to hit 6.8% in November when data is out later. That would be the highest in the lifetimes of most Americans. Here’s how the pandemic fueled an inflation shock of a generation. For the first time in a long while, the statistics are out on a Friday, and they’ll matter a lot more than payrolls, Bloomberg Opinion writes.
I never short gold. It's just not in my DNA. But the inflation bar seems pretty high for the gold bulls to hurdle.
There are powerful fundamental causes behind the current inflation picture, many directly related to the pandemic. Unfortunately, instead of looking for real solutions, we have a president who has done nothing other than add fuel to the fire with assorted energy policies and regulatory nightmares.
If, by some chance, the CPI data comes out better than expected, equity markets in particular, and other markets in general, will have an interesting reaction. Same if worse, but in the opposite direction.
.7 monthly, 6.8 annual has been priced in.
And here it is. Fairly close to expectations. Monthly up a tic over forecast.
| CPI - M/M | 0.9 % | 0.7 % | 0.5 % to 0.9 % | 0.8 % |
| CPI - Y/Y | 6.2 % | 6.8 % | 6.4 % to 7.1 % | 6.8 % |
| Ex-Food & Energy- M/M | 0.6 % | 0.5 % | 0.3 % to 0.7 % | 0.5 % |
| Ex-Food & Energy- Y/Y | 4.6 % | 4.9 % | 4.7 % to 5.1 % | 4.9 % |
Equities appear happy with the report.
There won't be a week in review this week. Not enough data. But between CPI, Sentiment and the low 184K Jobless claims, thats the bulk of data this week.
Consumer Sentiment Forecast.
| Prior | Consensus | ||
| Index | 67.4 | 67.0 | 65.0 to 69.0 |
Inflation, as experienced by the general population, has already hit in force. Increases in prices for basic commodities, have been increasing since the plandemic began. And, regardless of what other indicators might say, the value of their dollar has already decreased. Smaller packaging and increased prices, are already being experienced. When a family could go to a fast food joint, and feed the family for less than $20, but it now costs over $30, this is inflation to them. This is inflation at the basic level. The value of their dollar has decreased. At least to the general public.
This is a time for foresight on our part. Because we realize the reason for the increase in their costs. We make our living off of it. And we also control the increase in the cost of living.
Catagorically, I don't care if a market is going up or down. I will make money either way, as long as it moves. Because I will adapt to the direction it takes on a daily basis.
Mark
TY for post. And I agree--to the tune of several K in losses shorting bonds and dollar.
EVERY citizen is worse off due to Biden policies especially energy. YET, the 'logical' dollar down, rates up during democratic administrations has not (yet?) commenced.
Any thoughts on timing?
thanks tjc
I've been hunting trades on the short side of bonds for more than a decade. Occasionally i get one by watching the charts for a break to new lows but the trades don't last long. I'm still convinced that the time will come but need to be patient but constantly on the watch. I think it will start slowly, with pull backs.
Also when stocks run out that money will try to go to bonds?
The fed???
Just ramblings
Related to inflation.
I went to the closest grocery store to our house last evening, Schucks.
Jumbo eggs were $2.99/dozen, milk $3.99/gallon and yogurts $3.99/32 oz.
I bought some vegetables and a few other things but refused to buy those mentioned items...because I knew Walmart was cheaper.
I went to the Walmart 15 miles away(which is close to my gym and I just go to both of them on the same trip) and got the same eggs for $1.23/dozen.
Milk for $2.19/gallon and yogurts for $1.89...........and stocked up with over a months worth of the eggs and 11 yogurts..........all they had(I eat 2 of them every night).
Crazy difference in prices!
Why is this??
Because alot of people wont drive that 15 miles..
They dont realize or dont have another reason to make the trip-UR fortunate i guess.
Ive noticed some blatant gouging by my regular subcontractors-big multi state firms -just putting it out there.
Real estate appraisers -some charging twice the fees as normal while 1/2 the competition is not- again theyre just
putting it out there- like that 15 mile scenario.
Sheeesh---capitalism I guess'
As the pendelum swings.....
John
wow you eat 64 oz of yogurt every night! (2x 32 oz)
Yeah, it sounds crazy!
I have an extremely fast metabolism for an old man and can eat around 2,500-3,000 calories a day!
What I do actually is dump out 2 of them together into a strainer that sits above a bowl for 24 hours that captures a great deal of the fluid. They are the fat free yogurts and each one has 5 servings of 80 calories for a total of 400 calories for the entire container., 800 calories for 2 containers.
After a day, they are shrunk to around half the original size. I'm sure that the fluid that drains off has calories.
Then I take that much thicker yogart(some call it yogurt cheese, especially if I let it sit for 48 hours and its really dense) and mix in massive amounts of cocoa, sugar substitute, peanut butter powder, and chocolate pudding mix.
This adds calories back but it really turns it creamy and very chocolaty and a peanut butter taste too.
And while mixing it, I can't resist eating several large spoonfuls because its so dang yummy.
Then, I put it in the freezer and freeze it, like ice cream.
After its frozen, then I eat it like ice cream. It's often too hard, so I have to microwave it to melt and the outsides get hot and it ends up more like a hot fudge sundae.
These are the exact yogurts that I bought at Walmart yesterday.
I'll be eating 2 of them(drained and flavored in just a few minutes).
Maybe I paid 1.92 and not 1.89.
Look at where Schnucks prices the exact same stuff but a different brand for......more than double the price!
They had a Schnucks brand for less.............but were all out of it.....and that was still higher than Walmart's Great Value yogart.
