Two Weeks in Review
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Started by TimNew - Dec. 18, 2021, 6:23 a.m.

DatePriorCurrentRating
CPI_M/MNov-210.900.80C
NFIB Small Business   Optimism_M/MNov-2198.2098.40C
Empire State Mfg_M/MDec-2130.9031.90C+
Philly Fed Mfg_M/MDec-2139.0015.40C
Kansas City Fed Mfg_M/MDec-2124.0024.00C
Industrial Production_M/MNov-211.600.50C
Housing Market Index_M/MDec-2183.0084.00C
Housing Starts_M/MNov-211.520M1.679MC+
Housing Permits_M/MNov-211.650M1.712MC+
Retail Sales_M/MNov-211.700.30C
Consumer Sentiment_M/MDec-2167.4070.40C+
Job Openings (JOLTS)_M/MOct-2110.438M11.033MC
RedBook 1_W/W12/4/202116.9015.30C
RedBook 2_W/W12/11/202115.3015.70C
Jobless Claims 1_W/W12/4/2021222K184KB-
Jobless Claims 2_W/W12/4/2021184K206KC-


CPI has reached an impressive  6.8% per anum. The Fed no longer has a choice.   This may be the perfect setup for stagflation.

Job Openings actually crept up to a little over 11 million.  I believe I've stated before that the 7 million range is typical of an overheated economy. This is unprecedented. Quits remain in the mid 4 million range. Also unprecedented.

On a related note, in the last 2 weeks,  Jobless Claims dropped to a multi-decade low, but then "jumped" to an historically low 206K.  I can't imagine how incompetent you have to be to get fired in this environment.  Of course, if we keep going  at this rate,  the business closings will add a lot to these numbers. Competence will have nothing to do with it.  

Consumer Sentiment tic'd up a bit, but remains low. Small Business remains fairly steady.

Retail Sales moderated, but remained positive.

Housing had a nice showing for Nov. and Mfg remains a bright spot.

I'll give the week a C with a caveat.  The wheels may come off if we don't see some underlying improvements very soon.






Comments
By metmike - Dec. 18, 2021, 10:58 a.m.
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Thanks very much Tim!

By metmike - Dec. 19, 2021, 3:41 p.m.
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Updated the  Week's in Review compilation going back almost 2 years!


                Week in review compilation 2020/21            

                            Started by metmike - April 24, 2021, 6:42 p.m.           

 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68446/