https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

@kannbwx

#Brazil's late-year exports of #soybeans were not as big as in 2018 and 2019 (when U.S. trade with #China was thin), but the stocks weren't emptied like last year. The record push in March-May 2021 helped calendar year 2021 shipments reach a (preliminary) record 86.1 mmt.

@kannbwx

#Brazil's 2020/21 #corn crop suffered large losses due to poor weather - apparent in the monthly export data. The midyear-harvested second crop usually boosts shipments to an Aug-Sep peak, but this year's peak was stunted. Earliest planting begins soon for the 21/22 2nd crop.

@kannbwx

That brings us back here: no one thought that bump in late 2018 was possible - never happened before. That next year, govt agencies (incl. USDA) overhauled their estimates for Brazil's soy stocks. Crops were bigger than pegged. Things make so much more sense in hindsight! :)

@kannbwx

Interestingly, the #China Soy Assoc. was technically not wrong about them not running out of #soybeans back in late 2018, but we didn't know why at the time. ASF was much more rampant than we thought, though that didn't become apparent until March 2019. Also, #Brazil helped out.

@kannbwx

#China in 2022 plans to increase area planted to #soybeans by at least 8%. Remember this chart? In Sept. 2018, amid the trade war, China's Soy Industry Assoc. suggested output would rise to over 30 mmt by 2020 and they wouldn't face a soy shortage. Spoiler: 30+ mmt didn't happen.

@kannbwx

17h

USDA confirms the sale of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. #soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 2022/23.

Export SALES

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

@kannbwx

U.S. net export sales of #wheat, #soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and beef last week were marketing year lows, #corn sales also came in below expectations. #China had 354kt soy (264kt switched from unknown). Canada and Mexico were top buyers of corn.

@kannbwx

The cost of #soybeans was a huge driver in the record exports by value. In November, the avg exported cost of U.S. beans to #China was $527/t vs $431 in Nov '20 and $361 in Nov '19. Nov '12 ($608/t) and Nov '13 ($516) influenced those years' high total export values.

@kannbwx

That 37% for #soybeans is well off normal, though. The soybean volumes by themselves are nothing special versus past years. 

In recent non-trade war years, soybeans would account for about 48% of the Jan-Nov value. The huge presence of #corn is the big difference maker in 2021.

@kannbwx

It's official. With the November data now in, record U.S. ag exports to #China are confirmed for 2021. The Jan-Nov value reached $32.16B, topping 2013's full-year high of $29.07B. #Soybeans account for 37%, #corn 15% - those are the top two.

@kannbwx

U.S. #corn exports to #China in Q1 2021/22 neared 1.5 mln tonnes, well off 3.5 mmt from the prior year and behind Q1 of 13/14.

 As of Dec. 30, there were 10 mmt of purchased U.S. corn awaiting shipment to China in 21/22.