NG thread 1/6
59 responses | 0 likes
Started by Jim_M - Jan. 6, 2022, 10:47 a.m.

Natural Gas.....bearish....

Comments
By Jim_M - Jan. 6, 2022, 10:49 a.m.
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By MarkB - Jan. 11, 2022, 12:23 a.m.
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If our own production is still down, and imports from Canada are still strong, that is bullish. Given the mild weather last week, I dont expect a large draw on the report thursday. But the next one after that, is going to be large!

By metmike - Jan. 11, 2022, 3:46 a.m.
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Previous Natural Gas thread:

                NG 1/1/22+          

                            61 responses |                

                Started by WxFollower - Jan. 1, 2022, 4:52 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/79754/


For First Time in New Year, February Natural Gas Futures Eclipse $4

 Natural gas futures on Monday closed above $4.00 for the first time this year as European calls for U.S. exports remain robust and forecasts point to continued strong domestic weather-driven demand. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $4.079/MMBtu, up 16.3 cents day/day. March rose 10.8 cents to $3.834. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg.… 


metmike: As I mentioned at the end of the previous thread...........don't be long if we have signs of the cold pattern letting up(other than models flip flopping with solutions)  The 0z GFS was just -2 HDD's less cold than the 12z run(though +5 HDD's from the 18z run) but  -11 HDD's less cold on the European model caused us to drop $1,000/contract as it came out.

The pattern looks mighty cold still but even small hints of it being less cold cause NG to get hit pretty hard. When the forecast goes back to average temps, it seems likely that NG is going to drop hard. 

By metmike - Jan. 11, 2022, 2:27 p.m.
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12z models were colder again.

By tjc - Jan. 11, 2022, 2:54 p.m.
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  Market started rallying midmorning.  I was about to ask you for update.

  How much colder?  Or is it expected to last longer?

  I must trade in and out more.  Holding after the immediate jump Sunday night was agonizing, but now new highs!

By WxFollower - Jan. 11, 2022, 8:51 p.m.
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tjc,

 I still see no end in sight for the mainly chilly wx in much of the eastern half of the US. Models will vary and have from run to run but the chilly theme remains. These ups and downs make options more attractive though they lose time value pretty fast. So, pretty quick and/or strong trends are needed to make profits on buying options. But at least the loss is limited to the price for the option.

By tjc - Jan. 12, 2022, 9:47 a.m.
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  Thank everyone for the support.

  Rang the bell !!

Bot 375 feb call ,226     sold   .85  BAM!   Equivalent of 4.60!  Huray!

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2022, 10:35 a.m.
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Congrats tic,

Agree with Larry again.

European ensemble was especially colder overnight. Interesting that ng picks times to shoot up that are unpredictable like this. 

Options paid off big in this case.

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2022, 11:32 a.m.
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Overnight Euro Model ‘Decidedly Colder’ as Natural Gas Futures Soar in Early Trading

 With updated weather models continuing to predict intense cold in the Lower 48 later this month, natural gas futures were up sharply in early trading Wednesday. The February Nymex contract had rallied 18.7 cents to $4.436/MMBtu as of around 8:45 a.m. ET. The European weather model shifted “decidedly colder” overnight, a development that was “clearly… 


metmike: That was it! WOW!

By tjc - Jan. 12, 2022, noon
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  I see new highs..   Some may say I was wrong.  I say great profit

By MarkB - Jan. 12, 2022, 12:57 p.m.
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I've never had a bad profit. Congrats!!

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2022, 1:05 p.m.
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I had tons of bad profits from getting out way too early!

And tons of wonderful losses..........tiny ones that avoided huge losses!

By hayman - Jan. 12, 2022, 1:46 p.m.
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Really nice to see you whallop a haymaker on that Natty.  Keep picking those spots and pretty soon you'll be collecting BitCoins! Again, congrats on a job well done, great New Year start to you.

By tjc - Jan. 12, 2022, 2:26 p.m.
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  TY Hayman

  Have my eye on coffee.  Bought Monday and looking pretty good

Should grind higher.   Adding on a dip tomorrow

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2022, 2:50 p.m.
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European model another +9 HDD's.

By tjc - Jan. 12, 2022, 2:53 p.m.
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  Private guys had that from a little before noon?  Rally almost nonstop from that time, making new highs!

By WxFollower - Jan. 12, 2022, 4:42 p.m.
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Congrats, tjc!

 No, they didn’t have that EE info til 2PM EST and after. The rally is on the general idea that the rest of the month still looks cold and to add to that with still no end in sight. This is so much colder than the very mild December that caused NG to plunge. The EE later helped it to rally more.

By tjc - Jan. 12, 2022, 5:39 p.m.
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Big TY to everyone.  

Perhaps a dip to the 4.15 (Sunday night open) to 4.40 support area will allow re-entry.  Almost got back to the 50% retrace today.  SWINGS ARE NOW HUGE

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2022, 11:52 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Soar, Approach $5 Threshold as Depths of Winter Loom

 


Natural gas futures surged on Wednesday, extending the first lengthy rally of 2022 to four straight days as forecasts for bitter cold temperatures and lofty heating demand intensified. The February Nymex gas futures contract soared 60.8 cents day/day and settled at $4.857. March jumped 35.9 cents to $4.327. At A Glance: ‘Strongest demand’ of winter… 

metmike: Amazing that the market decided to dial in so much of the upcoming cold in 1 day. I would never have expected it to happen like this, considering how poorly the market had been acting at times early in the week(filling the huge gap higher from Sunday night on Monday, then struggling to go higher on Tuesday).

Volatility could be extremely high for awhile! Margins may increase because of this. 

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2022, 2:04 a.m.
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Tomorrow's EIA report will be based on the 7 day period below, ending January 7, 2022.

Compare that to the previous 7 days below that which had an extremely bearish -33 BCF drawdown!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/79754/#79980

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220107.7day.mean.F.gif

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20211231.7day.mean.F.gif

                                    


                                    


By metmike - Jan. 13, 2022, 12:11 p.m.
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U.S. Natural Gas Storage

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

  Latest Release   Jan 13, 2022  Actual-179B  Forecast-173B    Previous-31B

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jan 13, 2022 10:30-179B-173B-31B
Jan 06, 2022 10:30-31B-54B-136B
Dec 30, 2021 10:30-136B-125B-55B
Dec 23, 2021 10:30-55B-56B-88B
Dec 16, 2021 10:30-88B-86B-59B
Dec 09, 2021 10:30-59B-54B-59B
By metmike - Jan. 13, 2022, 12:24 p.m.
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Triple-Digit Storage Withdrawal Fails to Impress Natural Gas Futures Traders

 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a pull of 179 Bcf natural gas from storage for the week ended Jan. 7, the largest so far this winter and in line with expectations. Nymex natural gas futures, already down in morning trading following a four-day rally, held deep in the red after the print. Ahead… 

metmike: The forecast did not change that much from Tue to Wed for us to go up 6,000+/contract(the 0z European model was colder..........but thats happened lots of times)  and has not changed that much for us today, to be down 5,000/contract(overall the models are just as cold).  Extreme volatility and unpredictability. 

I will say that Wednesday was just a 1 off deal with the huge funds having a massive short and the short covering fed on itself all day with positive feedback on the chart signature and technical indicators and extreme ammo from vulnerable shorts having huge drawdowns. 

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2022, 12:28 p.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

 for week ending January 7, 2022   |  Released: January 13, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: January 20, 2022 

                                                        -179 Neutral vs expectations.          

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(01/07/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region01/07/2212/31/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East730  767  -37  -37   732  -0.3  688  6.1  
Midwest835  893  -58  -58   885  -5.6  823  1.5  
Mountain159  172  -13  -13   189  -15.9  168  -5.4  
Pacific204  219  -15  -15   279  -26.9  246  -17.1  
South Central1,088  1,143  -55  -55   1,131  -3.8  1,019  6.8  
   Salt330  347  -17  -17   328  0.6  302  9.3  
   Nonsalt759  796  -37  -37   803  -5.5  717  5.9  
Total3,016  3,195  -179  -179   3,215  -6.2  2,944  2.4  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,016 Bcf as of Friday, January 7, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 179 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 199 Bcf less than last year at this time and 72 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,944 Bcf. At 3,016 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

By tjc - Jan. 13, 2022, 1:27 p.m.
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MetMike

Wednesday was shake out massive shorts.  Weather has not gotten warmer.  Do funds now buy??

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2022, 3:22 p.m.
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Not sure about that tjc.  If the weather stayed this cold for over a month..........then yes. If the pattern changes to mild again.........we will go lower!

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2022, 6:49 p.m.
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For First Time in Five Sessions, Natural Gas Futures Falter as Traders Take Profits

 The price of natural gas for delivery next month nosedived on Thursday as traders took profits after a massive four-day rally. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $4.270/MMBtu, down 58.7 cents day/day. March dropped 32.2 cents to $4.005. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., in contrast, continued to climb, gaining 89.0 cents to $6.450… 


metmike: It would have been almost impossible to know how natural gas would act this week.  I usually strongly recommend NOT using options, as tjc knows from the past because you will pay out the wazoo for the right to limit your risk and most options expire worthless but this was one of the examples of them paying off handsomely.............if you knew when to get out. If you were long futures and got out yesterday, you had massive profits too but with the futures, there have been some huge spikes down that are almost impossible to stay long thru in this environment. 

For instance, if I'm long, no way will I sit thru a $2,000/contract correction. Whether its a drawdown or whether it just wiped out that much in profits.........NO WAY for me. 

I'd be interested in WxFollower/Larry's take on the last 2 days. Even for natural gas, they were incredible and we ended up almost back to Tuesday's price. 

By metmike - Jan. 14, 2022, 1:52 a.m.
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I've been tied up with several things going on the last few days and not had time to look at the actual weather maps, only looking at the HDD data much of the time.

After looking at the actual maps from model solutions going back to Wednesday, it actually does make some sense why the market acted this way.

Definately an OVER reaction but the models peaked in cold intensity overnight Tuesday.......so the spike higher on Wednesday. 

However, the weather maps have been looking more and more zonal and milder towards the end of the period since then. Previous to Tuesday Night, the maps were looking colder and colder, with an exception for a run or two but then colder again.

The NWS extended outlook may have looked colder today but the models were clearly less cold late in the period and that has continued so far tonight.  The AO and NAO were NOT very bullish/cold overnight Wednesday/Thursday early ......just nuetral/near zero, though the 500 mb anomaly map was still pretty cold(not as cold as early Wed).

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/#78399

By metmike - Jan. 14, 2022, 12:51 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Extend Slide Despite ‘Solidly Cold’ Temperature Outlook

 Coming off a stretch of wild volatility, natural gas futures extended their recent losses in early trading Friday as forecasts hinted that cold might fade at the end of the month. The February Nymex contract was down 8.6 cents to $4.184/MMBtu at around 8:55 a.m. ET. Bespoke Weather Services characterized the recent tumble in natural… 


metmike: Agree that potential for cold to fade in late January was what clobbered the market on Thursday. Updated extended large scale anomalies/indices.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/#78399

                                    


By Jim_M - Jan. 14, 2022, 1:15 p.m.
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Quoting a wise man here.....we are another day closer to spring.  :)

By WxFollower - Jan. 14, 2022, 4:50 p.m.
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Mike asked me what do I think about this week’s NG action. My answer? Considering yesterdays huge drop, the current significant drop off daily highs along with being back down for the day,and colder 12Z models, I’d consider a conservative long for the weekend by maybe buying an OOTM call at these levels. There’s still a lot of intense cold on the way along with several 200+ EIA draws likely no matter what may happen near the end of the month. Also, crude is back close to its recent highs, which may indirectly help LNG demand, which is already at record highs. Options don’t expire til January 26th I believe.

By WxFollower - Jan. 15, 2022, 6:45 p.m.
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Looking at the neverending widespread and intense US cold of the rest of this month at least (as per about all models the last few days) and definitely including today, I couldn’t imagine wanting to short NG at these prices. I’ve been saying things are bullish for NG all month but especially now. But that’s if the market cares enough about US wx, which logic would say it should. This is turning into an epic January.

By metmike - Jan. 15, 2022, 9:52 p.m.
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Still looks extremely cold the next week!

The question is..........as we moderate after than, do we stay pretty cold into early February or are we close to average by the end of the month, with half the GFS ensembles, the European/Canadian and CMC models think with a more zonal pattern with time? 

Cold side of average but moderating the last week of the month.


Updated extended discussion/maps:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/#78399

By metmike - Jan. 16, 2022, 3:42 p.m.
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Still looks pretty cold, even while moderating in week 2.

Out of town at my grandighters cheer competition today.

By MarkB - Jan. 16, 2022, 5:15 p.m.
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Looks as though it might stay cold fo a while from the midwest to the northeast. Winter has arrived.

By MarkB - Jan. 16, 2022, 9:15 p.m.
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One also has to wonder if NG and CL are trading sympathetic with each other. Especially since crude is on a serious uptrend right now. And their daily charts seem to be quite reflective of each other for long term basis.

By metmike - Jan. 16, 2022, 10:54 p.m.
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They sometimes have factors in common that affect prices Mark.

I wouldn't want to be long ng if all models turn milder overnight.

By MarkB - Jan. 17, 2022, 12:22 a.m.
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I agree. But I would also be looking at "trading with the trend". Given, that if the models hold true, there's going to be a lot of drawdown in supply in the next 2 weeks. Maybe more. Is that factored in yet? 


The other consideration is now in a global market situation. Not just in NG. And not just in the US.

By metmike - Jan. 17, 2022, 1:14 p.m.
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The market knew about these upcoming huge drawdowns last week.

That's old news. NEW news comes when those huge drawdowns are updated to be even bigger or not as big and then, what is early February going to be like.

Looks like moderation is actually the trend.

By WxFollower - Jan. 17, 2022, 4:14 p.m.
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Mike and Mark both have some good points. I’ve already stated my points and have no reason to change them when taking into account wx updates to the present. The country looks quite cold as a whole through the rest of the month at least with still no indication of a return to anything even remotely resembling the mildness of December. There is going to be a string of at least 4 big draws to be reported, all either near or above 200 bcf after the next 4 reports. Some may be well above due partially to freeze-offs halting production. This will likely bring storage vs the 5 year average from the current +72 surplus to a deficit at least near 100 bcf and possibly close to 200. Since just 2 weeks ago, end of March projections have dropped ~200 bcf just based on January/first few days of February cold, alone. If that weren’t enough, if after a short closer to normal period in early Feb there’s renewed cold domination, then we’d be looking at even that much more bullish comparisons vs the 5 year average.

Edit/update: models I’ve seen suggest US HDD likely remain higher than normal through at least February 12th. Yes it is just speculation, especially after week 2. But if even the speculation has cold for almost another 4 weeks, well, hopefully y’all see my point. What would bears hang their hat on now?



By metmike - Jan. 17, 2022, 7:18 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

My opinion on price direction(and always trading positions)  often takes into account the relative aspect of the temperature forecast compared to previous forecasts.

Is it getting colder/warmer than before and how much of that is dialed in?

Obviously the week 3 part of the forecast is the most speculative/least known, so whatever that is, as it slowly becomes known, 1 day at a time,  can have more absolute significance because there isn't a great deal to compare it to.

Going from much below temps to below temps, to me is not all that bullish if the market expected that or if the market was expecting a continuation of much below temps and now its just below.

But each day is different and we have prices changes that can dial in a weeks worth of colder/warmer weather in 1 day.  Like we did last week with a 6,000+ spike higher...........and the maps were not that much colder on that day.

So you can be long for several days and give up, then suddenly the market responds right after you get out.

If we do continue this cold for a month, it seems likely that ng will go higher but in the 2nd half of Winter, there is not nearly as much speculative interest based on weather. 

In November, a sustained pattern has twice as long to affect storage. In last January, not only is that cut in half but if the first half was mild, you've eliminated the possibility of storage levels to get precariously low.

That's just an example. 

Also, it's not like prices are still near the lows. The market has rebounded quite a bit on the pattern change to cold.

The easy money comes very early in the pattern change. The market has not reacted yet and you have a bunch of traders following the old trend caused by the old weather pattern. You jerk them out of the market which is additional fuel to add to the NEW direction.

We've established the new direction now. The spike to almost $5 last week probably maximized the jerking out of the most shorts in a brief period.

No more easy money trading natural gas now.

However, I do agree that the forecast looks bullish/cold for the rest of the month and into early February.....though moderating.


By tjc - Jan. 18, 2022, 10:01 a.m.
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 Greetings MarketForum

  Larry/Wx, MetMike, and Mark I believe you are all correct!  Unlike Dec when big shorts pounded the market down on perceived (and fullfilled) mild temps, as Larry says, it is now cold and appears to extend for many weeks; the huge, one day spike happened (TY) so easy money is over; USA and Europe has witnessed a change to cold with a need for NG.  ALL THESE FACTORS NOW SPELL--DEMAND.

  In any event, I went long before your three Monday afternoon posts.  I opine NG ups/downs Tu/Wed, but dont be short Th/FRi.  Another round of blowing out re-established shorts will occur.  Truly believe NGF expires next week at/near 5.5 or possibly 6 (market exaggeration).  I may buy a call or two Wed night/Thurs a.m.

  USE a stop

By metmike - Jan. 18, 2022, 2:37 p.m.
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Thanks tjc!

The days 6-10 part of the European model were +10 HDD's.

The GFS was also colder during that period but we made new lows after that came out.

The rest of the forecast is about the same.

The AO and NAO are not the best for sustained cold but the teleconnections and anomalies are really good for cold.

By metmike - Jan. 18, 2022, 2:44 p.m.
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Temperatures for this Thursday's EIA:


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220114.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Jan. 18, 2022, 10:31 p.m.
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With LNG Momentum and More Cold Coming, February Natural Gas Futures Forge Ahead

 Natural gas futures crept higher Tuesday, as traders assessed colder near-term weather patterns, export strength and expectations for increased storage draws against the potential for warmer weather next month. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $4.283/MMBtu, up 2.1 cents day/day. March, however, dipped 3.3 cents to $4.048. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped… 

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2022, 2:19 a.m.
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European model coming out quite a bit LESS cold. The first 10 days were -7 HDD's, then its slightly colder.

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2022, 11:19 a.m.
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6Z GFS was a whopping -11 HDD's, which caused us to spike down to $4.2, then an hour later got back above $4.3.

Aftere 8:30am, there's been serious pressure. 


By metmike - Jan. 19, 2022, 12:53 p.m.
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Market Seen Discounting Cold’s Impact as Natural Gas Futures Called Near Even

 Natural gas futures hovered close to even early Wednesday as traders appeared to be keeping their powder dry ahead of potentially the coldest stretch of the winter season so far. The February Nymex contract was up 1.4 cents to $4.297/MMBtu at around 9 a.m. ET. The February contract went as high as $4.385 in after-hours… 


metmike: Latest extended analysis........taking out lots of cold risk.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/#80600


                                    


            

                

By metmike - Jan. 20, 2022, 12:39 p.m.
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U.S. Natural Gas Storage

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

  Latest Release  Jan 20, 2022   Actual-206B   Forecast-194B   Previous-179B



Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jan 20, 2022 10:30-206B-194B-179B
Jan 13, 2022 10:30-179B-173B-31B
Jan 06, 2022 10:30-31B-54B-136B
Dec 30, 2021 10:30-136B-125B-55B
Dec 23, 2021 10:30-55B-56B-88B
Dec 16, 2021 10:30-88B-86B-59B
By metmike - Jan. 20, 2022, 12:42 p.m.
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https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending January 14, 2022   |  Released: January 20, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: January 27, 2022 


Bullish but the market is focused on the big pattern change to milder late in the period........as it should.

                                                                                                                         

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(01/14/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region01/14/2201/07/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East669  730  -61  -61   686  -2.5  643  4.0  
Midwest770  835  -65  -65   835  -7.8  771  -0.1  
Mountain151  159  -8  -8   178  -15.2  159  -5.0  
Pacific201  204  -3  -3   275  -26.9  236  -14.8  
South Central1,019  1,088  -69  -69   1,062  -4.0  968  5.3  
   Salt308  330  -22  -22   300  2.7  286  7.7  
   Nonsalt711  759  -48  -48   761  -6.6  683  4.1  
Total2,810  3,016  -206  -206   3,036  -7.4  2,777  1.2  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,810 Bcf as of Friday, January 14, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 206 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 226 Bcf less than last year at this time and 33 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,777 Bcf. At 2,810 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2017 through 2021. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - Jan. 20, 2022, 12:45 p.m.
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EIA’s 206 Bcf Withdrawal Fails to Stop Bleeding of Nymex Natural Gas Futures

 


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a monstrous 206 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ending Jan. 14, a steeper pull than the market was expecting. Nymex natural gas futures had a modest reaction to the triple-digit draw, though, which was the first 200-plus Bcf withdrawal of the winter season. The February Nymex contract… 

metmike: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/79978/#80491

Latest extended. Back to December's pattern? Cold West, Mild East.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/#80649

By metmike - Jan. 21, 2022, 12:21 p.m.
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From yesterday eve:

Natural Gas Futures Fizzle for Second Day Despite Steepest Storage Withdrawal of Winter

 Natural gas futures floundered a second consecutive day as weather patterns tilted warmer, overshadowing record export volumes, threats to production and the steepest storage withdrawal of the season. A day after dropping 25.2 cents, the February Nymex gas futures contract on Thursday shed 22.9 cents day/day and settled at $3.802/MMBtu. March fell 19.6 cents to… 


From Fri AM

American Model Notably Colder Overnight as Natural Gas Futures Pare Losses Early

 Natural gas futures recovered some of their recent losses in early trading Friday as weather models trended colder overnight. The February Nymex contract was up 9.0 cents to $3.892/MMBtu at around 8:55 a.m. ET. The American Global Forecast System (GFS) model trended colder by 15 heating degree days overnight, according to NatGasWeather. Most of the… 


metmike: When we have a potential pattern change like the one coming up, there will be huge model to model/run to run fluctuations. Risk on again overnight/Friday for February cold!

By tjc - Jan. 21, 2022, 12:33 p.m.
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 MUST BE COLDER??

By metmike - Jan. 21, 2022, 12:38 p.m.
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The pattern change the last several days had been to much milder, back to Decembers pattern..........which is why we crashed lower.

 But the last couple runs are uncertain about how that shapes up exactly and looks potentially colder.

When there is an extreme temp gradient from northwest(cold) to southeast(mild) a slight change to the position of the main features can mean a 20 HDD difference.

The 0z GFS last night was +20 HDD vs the previous run!

Here's the latest:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/#80668

By metmike - Jan. 21, 2022, 7:46 p.m.
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February Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back, Buoyed by Forecast Shift, Export Strength

 Natural gas futures climbed back into positive territory on Friday amid updated forecasts for freezing conditions to extend into next month and expectations for stout withdrawals from storage. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $3.999, up 19.7 cents day/day. March rose 13.3 cents to $3.782. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., in contrast, shed… 


metmike: As mentioned:

1. Models have a pattern change back to the December pattern(with the MJO weakening and no longer a bullish influence on forcing a cold pattern downstream which is likely what caused us to shift colder at the end of December). Models are least reliable when we have pattern change predictions. Sometimes, they make the changes too soon as patterns that have been entrenched for awhile are hard to dislodge. 

2. This particular pattern has an very stout temperature gradient from the very cold northwest to very mild southeast. Slight shifts in the location of features in a changing pattern more than a week from now can be huge in terms of HDD's when the gradient is this tight.

The 0Z GFS overnight was +20 HDD's vs the previous run, for instance. This last, 18Z run was +13 HDD's vs the last, 12Z run. There's some solutions with a strongly negative, --AO(others are positive) late in the period. This means a huge difference in how much cold will be in Canada as a source region for cold fronts in the US. Canada looks frigid again, like in December. Where those cold fronts will hit makes a huge difference too.

By metmike - Jan. 23, 2022, 5:58 p.m.
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Lower open but not crazy lower.

By metmike - Jan. 24, 2022, 2:25 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Slide as Traders Eye Milder February Temps

 Eyeing a February warm-up, traders shrugged off signs of tight balances in the interim to send prompt month natural gas futures lower early Monday. The February Nymex contract was off 4.5 cents to $3.954/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. March, meanwhile, was trading close to even at $3.780. Trends from the major weather models were… 


metmike: We reversed to sharply higher this morning!

Cold looks aimed more towards the middle of the country instead of the West, in week 2 with a similar pattern in December that was extremely mild in the East.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/#78399

By metmike - Jan. 24, 2022, 2:29 p.m.
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GFS was the much colder model but turned much milder -16 HDD's with the 12z run.......but then the milder European model shifted to much colder!

+11 HDD's during the 6-10 day period!

Then, slightly milder and +8 HDD's for the entire period.


Regardless of model to model/run to run changes like this, the cold has peaked and the new pattern will be less cold(milder) with temps, maybe closer to average for the country as a whole(averaged) with more cold northwest half and more warmth southeastern 1/3 to 1/2.


By metmike - Jan. 24, 2022, 2:45 p.m.
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Feb NG expires on Thursday with a lot of big shorts probably still in the market covering.

Volume today, for Feb/G, the front month was down to 50% of the next month/Mar/H.

40,000-G vs 75,000-H.

Volume for Feb will continue to plunge the next 3 days.

By metmike - Jan. 24, 2022, 10:10 p.m.
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Expected February Warm-Up Limits Price Gains for Nymex Natural Gas Futures; Cash Surges

 Natural gas futures were sluggish to start the week as weather models came into agreement in showing a lack of continued frigid weather into early February. Though production remains off recent highs and export demand continues to be near record levels, the February Nymex gas futures contract on Monday settled at $4.027/MMBtu, up only 2.8… 


metmike: Weather models do have a warm up with the cold having peaked.