KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, January 11, 2022  

6:00 AM ET. December NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (previous 98.4)

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

10:00 AM ET. January IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 48.4)

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 42.8)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed lower for the fourth day in a row on Monday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 35,819.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 36,952.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35,819.39. Second support is the December 20^th low crossing at 34,665.50.   

The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-rally crossing at 15,043.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16,143.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16,143.19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 16,659.50. First support is today's low crossing at 15,152.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-rally crossing at 15,043.89. 

The March S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4665.80 signals that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional losses near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4734.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4665.80. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4734.88. First support is the December 20^th low crossing at 4520.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 4485.75.

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

March T-bonds closed up 18/32's at 155-22. 

March T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 157-25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-23. First support is today's low crossing at 154-19. Second support is the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07.

March T-notes closed up 10-pts. at 128.105.

March T-notes closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 127.290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.032 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.136. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.032. First support is today's low crossing at 127.300. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 127.290. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

February crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $82.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $79.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $82.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.45.   

February heating oil closed slightly higher on Monday as it extended the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at $256.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $233.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $248.81. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $256.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $241.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $233.13.  

February unleaded gas closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $240.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $220.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 234.41. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 240.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $220.73. Second support is the December 20^th low crossing at $201.61.    

February Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday and above the December 6^th gap crossing at 4.010 marking an upside breakout of the December-January trading range while signaling that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.385 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.050 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.385. Second resistance the November 26^th high crossing at 5.400. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.535. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.050.   

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it extends the November-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above December's high crossing at $96.90 or below the November 30^th low crossing at $95.50 are needed to mark a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the December 15^th high crossing at $96.90. Second resistance is the June-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $97.81. First support is the November 30^th low crossing at $95.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $95.07. 

The March Euro closed lower on Monday while extending the November-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 30^th high crossing at 114.17 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off last-Friday's high, November's low crossing at 112.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at 114.17. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-November decline crossing at 115.23. First support is November's low crossing at 112.22. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 110.60. 

The March British Pound closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 4^th high crossing at 1.3692 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3406 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the November 4^th high crossing at 1.3692. Second resistance is the October high crossing at 1.3826. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3406. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.3207. 

The March Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. If March extends the decline off December's high, the December 15^th low crossing at 1.0791 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0916 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.1005. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1042. First support is the December 15^th low crossing at 1.0791. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0712.  

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 31^st high crossing at 79.23 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 75.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 8^st high crossing at 79.33. Second resistance is the November 15^th high crossing at 79.99. First support is December's low crossing at 77.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 75.95.

The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087705 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087246. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087705. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.085980. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

February gold closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at $1753.00 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 1838.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1833.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1838.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1781.30. Second support is December's low crossing at $1753.00.  

March silver closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off the December 28^th high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at 21.410 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving acreage crossing at 23.289 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally during the first half of January. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.289. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 24.960. First support is December's low crossing at 21.410. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 21.003.    

March copper closed lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 431.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 451.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 449.85. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 451.15. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 431.35. Second support is December's low crossing at 411.95.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March Corn closed down $0.07-cents at $5.99 3/4. 

March corn closed lower on Monday as position squaring ahead of the release of January's supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's loss signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.87 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off last-Monday's low, December's high crossing at $6.17 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $6.17 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.33. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.87. Second support is the November 30^th low crossing at $5.62 1/2.     

March wheat closed up $0.03 1/2-cents at $7.62.  

March wheat closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.98 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $7.48. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.03 1/4-cents at $7.78 1/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.96 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rallycrossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is the October 13^th low crossing at $7.24 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.09-cents at $9.14 1/4. 

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.92 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.62 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.92 3/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the September 10^th low crossing at $8.51.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed down $0.25 1/2-cents at $13.84 3/4.

March soybeans closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as traders begin position squaring ahead of Wednesday's monthly supply-demand report. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off the November 30^th low, last-June's high crossing at $14.45 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 30^th low crossing at $13.34 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at $14.13 1/4. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $14.45 1/2. First support is the December 30^th low crossing at $13.34 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.88 1/2.

March soybean meal closed down $8.70 at $416.30. 

March soybean meal posted an inside day with a  lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $450.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 31^st low crossing at $398.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $431.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $450.80. First support is the December 31^st low crossing at $398.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $397.00.       

March soybean oil closed down 75 pts. at 58.00. 

March soybean oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 61.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 59.24. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 61.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.90. Second support is December's low crossing at 51.10. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

February hogs closed down $1.35 at $78.30. 

February hogs closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $75.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $81.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $84.68. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $87.48. First support is today's low crossing at $78.22. Second support is December's low crossing at $75.35. 

February cattle closed down $1.25 at $136.08. 

February cattle closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $135.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $138.46 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $138.46. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $141.43. First support is December's low crossing at $135.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $134.30. 

March Feeder cattle closed down $1.45 at $165.222. 

March feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, August's high crossing at $171.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $170.83. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $171.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.04. Second support is December's low crossing at $159.90. 

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's rally, the December 15^th high crossing at 241.60 signal is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 201.45 is the next downside target.       

March cocoa closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, December's high crossing at 25.76 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 23.33 is the next downside target. 

March sugar closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 17.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.89 would confirm that a low has been posted.    

March cotton closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 118.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.