KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 14, 2022
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.7%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +0.4%)
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 76.8%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +1.2%)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 70.4)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 74.6)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off Monday's low while investors considered the latest weekly unemployment claims and wholesale price inflation out of Washington. The Labor Department's weekly jobless claims report showed an unexpected rise in first-time unemployment filings for last week, with these increasing to 230,000.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 35,843.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 36,952.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35,843.25. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at 34,665.50.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday ending a three-day rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16,138.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-rally crossing at 15,043.89 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16,138.29. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 16,659.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 15,152.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-rally crossing at 15,043.89.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, the January 4th high crossing at 4808.25 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4575.75 would renew the decline off January's high while opening the door for a possible test of the December 20th low crossing at 4520.25. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4714.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4808.25. First support is the December 20th low crossing at 4520.25. Second support is December's low crossing at 4485.75.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
March T-bonds closed up 21/32's at 156-23.
March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 156-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-26. First support is Monday's low crossing at 154-19. Second support is the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07.
March T-notes closed up 70-pts. at 128.255.
March T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.277 would open the door for a larger-degree short covering rebound. If March renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 127.290 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128.277. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.251. First support is Monday's low crossing at 127.300. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 127.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. February crude oil posted its highest close in about two months on Wednesday due to expectations that the omicron variant won't derail demand in the face of tight supplies. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $85.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $83.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $85.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.13.
February heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low and posted a new contract high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $279.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $238.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $262.03. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $279.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $247.44. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $238.63.
February unleaded gas closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday but not before posting a new contract high in early trading. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $281.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $224.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 240.34. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 281.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $224.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $218.76.
February Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a sharply lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.035 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.899 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December crossing at 5.035. Second resistance the November 26th high crossing at 5.400. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.899. Second support is December's low crossing at 3.518.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's sharp decline, which marked a downside breakout of the November-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the 38% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at $94.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.97 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.97. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $96.90. First support is today's low crossing at $94.63. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $94.11.
The March Euro closed higher on Thursday following Wednesday's upside breakout of the November-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 115.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 114.95. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-November decline crossing at 115.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 112.22.
The March British Pound closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 1.3826 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3474 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3826. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3914. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3474. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3411.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low and renewed the rally off November's low.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 1.1042 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0891 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1015. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1042. First support is the December 15th low crossing at 1.0791. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0712.
The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the November 10th high crossing at 80.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.29. Second resistance is the November 10th high crossing at 80.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.49.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087669 would open the door for a possible test of the December 17th high crossing at 88485. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.086761 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087669. Second resistance is the December 17th high crossing at 0.088485. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.086761. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.085980.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 1838.70 is the next upside target. If February renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at $1753.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1833.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1838.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1781.30. Second support is December's low crossing at $1753.00.
March silver closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving acreage crossing at 23.239 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.811 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.239. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 24.960. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 21.945. Second support is December's low crossing at 21.410.
March copper posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 461.42 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 431.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 461.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 469.36. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 431.35. Second support is December's low crossing at 411.95.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.11 1/2-cents at $5.87 1/2.
March corn closed lower on Thursday following Wednesday's neutral to bearish supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.87 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off last-Monday's low, December's high crossing at $6.17 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $6.17 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.33. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.87 3/4. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at $5.62 1/2.
March wheat closed down $0.11-cents at $7.46 3/4.
March wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's loss following a bearish supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's loss signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.75 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.75 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.95 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.48. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.18 1/4-cents at $7.59 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday following Wednesday's bearish supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.17 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.83 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.17 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rallycrossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $7.24 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.25-cents at $8.95 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.77 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.37 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.77 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the September 10th low crossing at $8.51.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.22-cents at $13.77 1/4.
March soybeans posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday due to profit taking triggered by an overbought condition in the market and a bearish shift in the extended weather forecast for dry portions of Brazil and Argentina. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off the November 30th low, last-June's high crossing at $14.45 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at $14.13 1/4. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at $14.45 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.96.
March soybean meal closed down $7.30 at $408.90.
March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday despite Wednesday's friendly supply-demand report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 31st low crossing at $398.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $450.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $431.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $450.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $403.80. Second support is the December 31st low crossing at $398.20.
March soybean oil closed down 93 pts. at 58.44.
March soybean oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past six trading sessions. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 61.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 59.24. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 61.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.77. Second support is December's low crossing at 51.10.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $1.00 at $77.85.
February hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $75.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $84.68. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $87.48. First support is today's low crossing at $77.05. Second support is December's low crossing at $75.35.
April cattle closed down $0.45 at $140.98.
April cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at $139.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.42 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.42. Second resistance is the January 4th gap crossing at $144.08. First support is December's low crossing at $139.92. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $139.44.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.70 at $166.73.
March feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, August's high crossing at $171.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $170.83. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $171.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.62. Second support is December's low crossing at $159.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 201.45 is the next downside target. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 252.35 signal is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the October 25th high crossing at 26.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.69 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 17.28 is the next downside target.
March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of its gains off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 121.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!