Two Weeks in Review
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Started by TimNew - Jan. 22, 2022, 5 a.m.



DatePriorCurrentRating
NFIB Small Business   Optimism_M/MDec-2198.8098.90C
CPI_M/MDec-210.800.50C+
PPI_M/MDec-210.800.20C+
Industrial Production_M/MDec-210.50-1.00C-
Empire State Mfg_M/MJan-2231.90-0.70D
Philly Fed MfgJan-2215.4023.20C+
Housing Market Index_M/MJan-2284.0083.00C
Housing Starts_M/MDec-211.679M1.792MC+
Housing Permits_M/MDec-211.712M1.873MC+
Existing Home Sales_M/MDec-216.460M6.10MC-
Retail Sales_M/MDec-210.30-1.90C-
RedBook1_W/W1/8/202218.8014.40C
RedBook2_W/W1/15/202214.4015.40C
Jobless Claims1_W/W1/8/2022207K230KC-
Jobless Claims2_W/W1/15/2022230K286KC-
Consumer Sentiment_M/MJan-2270.6068.80C-
Leading Indicators_M/MJan-221.100.80C+


Empire State Mfg  took a dramatic turn for January from a lofty 30+ range to -.7.  On the plus side, Philly Fed showed a nice jump.

Jobless Claims have returned to an historically low range of 280 +/-, but an 80K increase in this job market certainly warrents some attention.  When coupled that with a drop in Job openings in the last JOLTS,  I could speculate that this is foreboding.    But one month does not a trend make.

Retail Sales went negative, an unusual move for December,  typically a high point.

Industrial Production also took a hit,   but it's been very volatile the last several months.

CPI came down slightly, but remains in decades high territory. PPI, which some consider a leading indicator for CPI came down strongly over the previous month.  Let's hope this is from improved supply vs decreased demand.

Consumer Sentiment dropped a bit.  But Small Business remained at roughly the same level.

Housing is showing some strength for the end of the year altho existing did take a slight hit.

Leading Indicators remain positive, at least in part from the Stong Housing Permits.


I can't go better than a C- this week. The "nibbling around the edges" I've observed for the last few months is starting to turn into larger bites.  This is not meant as advice, but I am moving more to cash every week, waiting for some positive signs.





Comments
By metmike - Jan. 22, 2022, 11:54 a.m.
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Thanks Tim!

Wow, things must be getting pretty dang bad. I went back and looked and this is the worst overall report from you since June 2020, going back to the early parts of the pandemic and 19 months ago!

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2022, 11:57 a.m.
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Week in review compilations from Tim.

I'll add the last couple in a minute.

                Week in review compilation 2020/21/22            

                            Started by metmike - April 24, 2021, 6:42 p.m.            

                                        

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68446/

By TimNew - Jan. 22, 2022, 12:49 p.m.
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I would not go so far as to say things are bad.   Nothing like the spring of 2020.  We haven't gone over any cliffs.    But the warning signs are starting to pile up.  If we don't see some changes/positive moves soon this could get serious.

When you see weekly grades in the D range, and I reintroduce the suck factor, then things will be bad.

By TimNew - Jan. 22, 2022, 1:12 p.m.
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Q1:22 GDP Forecast now down to 5.1.  5.1 is certainly good,  but down from the high of 9.7 on 12/1/2021. 


Slide 1 (atlantafed.org)

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2022, 4:35 p.m.
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Thanks!