@kannbwx

Since July, #Ukraine has exported nearly 28% more grain than a year ago. July thru mid-Jan #wheat exports of 16.6 mmt matched last year's full-year volume. 

Some 13.7 mmt of #corn have been exported vs last year full-year of 23.1 mmt. Crops were short in 2020 but huge in 2021.

@kannbwx

#Ukraine accounts for 14% of the world's #corn & #wheat exports. Africa, the Middle East and China are among top recipients. 

About 3/4 of Ukraine's corn/wheat crop is exported, and nearly all that grain flows out of southern Black Sea ports Odessa & Mykolaiv 

@kannbwx

This is the focus of the U.S. corn market, but beyond that, countries where food security is a top concern - in the Middle East and North Africa - rely heavily on Ukraine's exports. Disruptions in that trade, if severe enough, could have dire consequences for those citizens.

@kannbwx

#Ukraine was #China's top #corn supplier until last year, when the U.S. took over (Ukraine had a short crop in 2020 and China's corn needs rose drastically).

 Is China confident Ukr can supply? Can Ukr ship China's purchases? Will U.S. supplies have to sub in? All valid questions.

@kannbwx

Why the concern about #Ukraine? It is a key grain exporter and it's unknown if a conflict with Russia would disrupt shipments, pressuring global food security 

 These charts from Refinitiv show Ukraine's peak #wheat shipping has passed for 21/22, but #corn is still active.

@kannbwx

Basically all of #Ukraine's grain ports on Tuesday have restricted loading operations due to poor weather.

 Looking back at news headlines from last year I found at least 8 such announcements between January and July 2021, so I wouldn't read too far into this today.