INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 1, 2022, 7:59 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, February 1, 2022   

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.0%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +15.6%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 57.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 



 

 

                       New Construction (expected +0.7%; previous +0.4%)

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 57.8; previous 58.7)

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 68.2)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 54.2)

 

                       Inventories (previous 54.7)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 60.4)

 

                       Production Idx (previous 59.2)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. January Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 54.2)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. January Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.4M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.2M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, February 2, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 551.7)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -7.1%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 300.1)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.8%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1989.4)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -12.6%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. January ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +250000; previous +807000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 416.19M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.377M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 247.918M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.297M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.154M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.798M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 87.7%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 22.417M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.502M)

 



 

 

Thursday, February 3, 2022   

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +28.01%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1237.3K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1228.3K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 736.7K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 230K; previous 260K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -30K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1675000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +51K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +3.1%; previous -5.0%)

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.7%; previous +8.3%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. January US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 50.9; previous 57.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January ISM Report On Business Services PMI

 



 

 

                       Services PMI (expected 60.0; previous 62.0)

 

                       Business Activity Idx (previous 67.6)

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 82.5)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 54.9)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 61.5)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous +1.6%)

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous  2591B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -219B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. January Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.6)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, February 4, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +178K; previous +199K)

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.9%; previous 3.9%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous  31.31)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous  +0.19)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.61%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.2%; previous +4.68%)

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous  +0)

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous  -12K)

 

                       Private Payroll (previous  +211K)

 

                       Participation Rate (previous  61.9%)

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low.Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Monday's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,530.75 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 13,386.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,114.89. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,759.86. First support is January's low crossing at 13,706.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 13,386.58.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4199.38 is the next downside target. Monday's  close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4422.10 signals that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4550.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4619.77. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4199.38. Second support is the June 2021 low crossing at 4129.00.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 13th high crossing at 156-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 156-28. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 157-15. First support is January's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.



March T-notes was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the the January 13th high crossing at 128.270 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 126.110 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 128.270. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 129.106. First support is January's low crossing at 127.020. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.110.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:March crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $92.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $88.84. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.21. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at $77.34.



March heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $2.7919 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5821 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.7754. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $2.7919. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5821. Second support is the January 7th low crossing at $2.4381.  



March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4203 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.5841. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $2.8181. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4203. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at $2.2757.    



March Henry natural gas was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.094 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.030 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.094. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.454. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.030. Second support is the January 20th low crossing at 3.629.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the January 14th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends January's rally, weekly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 99.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $97.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 99.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.90. Second support is the January 14th low crossing at $94.61.



The March Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of January's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $110.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.26. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $114.96. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $111.31. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $110.94.  



The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3551 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3551. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3745. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311.



The March Swiss Franc was sharply higher due to short covering overnight following Monday's key reversal up as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0892 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 1.0712 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0892. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0712. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.0673.  

 

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the January 6th low crossing at $78.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.20. Second resistance is the January 26th high crossing at $79.66. First support is the January 6th low crossing at $78.03. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087537 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 0.085980 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087537. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.086465. Second support is the December 4th low crossing at 0.085980.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1824.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $1755.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1819.40. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1824.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1780.60. Second support is December's low crossing at $1755.40.



March silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $21.945 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $23.504 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.942. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $23.504. First support is January's low crossing at $21.945. Second support is December's low crossing at $21.410.  



March copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.2388 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4378 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3840. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4378. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.3026. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.2388.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extended Monday's key reversal down. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $6.49 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.42 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $6.49 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.21 3/4 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.11. 



March wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $7.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $7.98 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $7.98 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $8.31 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.56 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $7.35 1/2.



March Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term  top might be in or is near. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.88 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $8.49 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $8.71. First support is the overnight low crossing at $7.76 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $9.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $9.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.82 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the September 10th low crossing at $8.51.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans was steady to lower overnight as it consolidated recent gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $15.45 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.11 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $14.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $15.45 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.37 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.11 3/4.

 

March soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $431.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $403.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $385.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $421.80. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $431.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $385.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at $373.00. 



March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 68.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 66.77. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 68.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.09.      


Comments
By metmike - Feb. 1, 2022, 2:21 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Beans in the teens!

Hey, wait minute.........we've been well into the teens for quite awhile (-:

Beans in the 20's!!