KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 9, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 617.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +12.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 312.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2355.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +18.4%)
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 415.143M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.047M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 250.037M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.119M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 122.744M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.41M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.41M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.007M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
Thursday, February 10, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 238K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -23K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1628000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -44K)
8:30 AM ET. January CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +7%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1175.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1977.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 161K)
9:45 AM ET. Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2323B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -268B)
2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 11, 2022
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 68.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 65.9)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 73.2)
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The Dow gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the aforementioned rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 35,997.12 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 34,799.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 35,997.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of January's decline crossing at 36,454.25. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 34,799.08. Second support is January's low crossing at 33,150.33.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,571.96 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 14,362.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 15,260.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,571.96. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 14,362.75. Second support is January's low crossing at 13,706.00.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-session close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4603.27 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 4438.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4603.27. Second resistance is the January 12th high crossing at 4738.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4438.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 4212.75.
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March T-bonds closed up 5/32's at 152-30.
March T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 156-28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-04. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 152-14. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.
March T-notes closed up 10-pts. at 126.195.
March T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 126.110 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.239 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 128.270. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.071. First support is today's low crossing at 126.135. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 126.110.
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March crude oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $100.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $93.17. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $100.36. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.77. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $81.90.
March heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $269.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $307.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $293.18. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $307.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $269.80. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $256.16.
March unleaded gas posted an inside day with a higher closed on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $281.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $252.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 272.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 281.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $252.44. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $237.36.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.937 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.599 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.599. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.572. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.937. Second support is the January 20th low crossing at 3.629.
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The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $94.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.83. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $96.17. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $95.15. Second support is January's low crossing at $94.61.
The March Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline crossing at 114.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 14th high crossing at 114.96. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline crossing at 114.63. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.35. Second support is January's low crossing at 111.31.
The March British Pound closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January 20th high crossing at 1.3659 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3441 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.3627. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3745. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3501. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3441.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, January's low crossing at 1.0715 is the next upside target. If March renews the rally off Monday's low, January's high crossing at 1.1015 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0907. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1015. First support is January's low crossing at 1.0715. Second support is the November's low crossing at 1.0712.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the January 6th low crossing at 78.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.18. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 80.32. First support is the January 6th low crossing at 78.03. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.13.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 0.085980 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087454 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. Second resistance is the December 17th high crossing at 0.088485. First support is today's low crossing at 0.086380. Second support is January's low crossing at 0.085980.
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April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1856.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1807.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1837.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1856.70. First support is January's low crossing at $1780.60. Second support is December's low crossing at $1755.40.
March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.232 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the December 28th high crossing at 23.480 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 22.708 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 28th high crossing at 23.480. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 24.755. First support is January's low crossing at 21.945. Second support is December's low crossing at 21.410.
March copper closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above January's high thereby renewing the rally off December's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 469.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 439.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 464.30. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 469.36. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 439.88. Second support is January's low crossing at 428.20.
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March Corn closed up $0.14 1/2-cents at $6.46 3/4.
March corn closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $6.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.47 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $6.49 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.03 3/4.
March wheat closed up $0.06 1/4-cents at $7.85.
March wheat closed higher on Wednesday extending the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.79 3/4 signals that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $7.35 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at $7.98 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $8.31 1/2. First support is last-Thursday low crossing at $7.40. Second support is the January 7th low crossing at $7.35 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.13 3/4-cents at $8.15.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday to extend the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.03 1/2 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, January's high crossing at $8.49 1/4. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $8.18 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $8.49 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rallycrossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $7.24 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.13 1/4-cents at $9.53 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.68 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 25th high crossing at $9.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.68 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the September 10th low crossing at $8.51.
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March soybeans closed up $0.25 3/4-cents at $15.94.
March soybeans closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $16.03 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.32 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $15.99 1/2. Second resistance is 87% retracement level of 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $16.03 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.32 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.65 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $7.80 at $461.90.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $471.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $464.10. Second resistance is the January-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $471.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $435.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.80.
March soybean oil closed up 75 pts. at 64.05.
March soybean oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it bounced off support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.02. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 68.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 66.92. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 68.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.02. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at 61.22.
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April hogs closed up $0.98 at $104.78.
April hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off October's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $110.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $105.48. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $110.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $99.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $95.44.
April cattle closed up $1.65 at $147.83
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $148.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $147.93. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $148.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.84.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.40 at $168.28.
March feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January 4th gap crossing at $169.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 4th gap crossing at $169.23. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $170.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.26. Second support is January's low crossing at $125.22.
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March coffee closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's upside breakout of the January-February trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 280.94 signal is the next upside target. Closes below the January 28th low crossing at 230.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, last October's high crossing at 28.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.95 would temper the friendly outlook.
March sugar closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 17.60 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 134.17 is the next upside target.
Thanks much tallpine!!