stagnation
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Started by bear - Feb. 18, 2022, 12:26 a.m.

https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/january-2022

this is just a short term snapshot the last month or so,... but...

shipments are down 3% , and expenditures are up 31% .  

this means we have to spend more money to get less stuff.  thats bad.  


for 2021, and 2022, the gdp read is not the important number to look for.  

a far more important metric is whether the average paycheck is keeping up with inflation.  if my pay goes up at 3%, but inflation is up 7%... that is BAD.  

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Re: stagnation
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By metmike - Feb. 18, 2022, 1:18 a.m.
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Alot of data from that source bear. Thanks

So was this mostly Omicron related?

In which case, we should bounce back up immediately.

Re: stagnation
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By bear - Feb. 22, 2022, 2:06 p.m.
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it may be partly covid related.  i am not sure if it Mostly omicron related. 

there are also bigger cycles involved here.  and there are political policy implications also. 

i expect that growth rates will continue to lag expectations.  and i expect that inflation will continue to be too high.  

stock valuations are too high, so stocks will not  give good returns for the next 10-15 years.

interest rates cannot continue to go lower, and at some point have to reverse trend.  

another important thing to point out.  biden is not doing much that will be "pro-market".