INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 18, 2022, 7:21 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, February 18, 2022  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales

 

                       Existing Sales (previous 6.18M)

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -4.6%)

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 1.8)

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 358000)

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.8%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                       Leading Index (previous 120.8)

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 13,706.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 14,668.50 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 14,668.50. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 15,068.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 14,031.00. Second support is January's low crossing at 13,706.00.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, January's low crossing at 4212.75 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 4484.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4484.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4581.04. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4354.00. Second support is January's low crossing at 4212.75.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's  decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-20. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 156-17. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 150-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.



March T-notes was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.014 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.014. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 128.115. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 125.175. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:April crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $93.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.36. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.10. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $81.90.



April heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6968 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April renews the rally off December's low, the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.0711 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.8543. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.0711. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.6968. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.5923.  



April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.7306 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, psychological resistance crossing at $3.0000 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.9155. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $3.0000. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.7306. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.6188.    



April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, February's high crossing at 5.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.207 would signal that a short-term  top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.645. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.053. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.207. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.929.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $97.44 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the January 14th low crossing at $94.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $96.43. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $97.44. First support is this month's low crossing at $95.15. Second support is January's low crossing at $94.61.



The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $112.87 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $116.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $115.04. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline crossing at $116.26. First support is Monday's low crossing at $112.87. Second support is January's low crossing at $111.31.



The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 1.3745 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3483 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.3641. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3745. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3483. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3483.



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.088 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.0715 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0907. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.0715.  

 

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $79.13 would mark a possible upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the January 6th low crossing at $78.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $79.13. Second resistance is the January 26th high crossing at $79.66. First support is the January 6th low crossing at $78.03. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087206 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087206. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.085955. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, last-May's high crossing at $1922.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1834.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1905.00. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at $1922.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1855.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1834.06.



March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $24.755 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.998 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $24.015. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $24.755. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.998. Second support is January's low crossing at $21.945.   



March copper was slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, last-October's high crossing at 4.7770 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4310 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4.7085. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 4.7770. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4310. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.2820.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.34 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $6.62 3/4. Second resistance is weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $6.81 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.34 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.13 1/4. 



March wheat was steady to lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $8.31 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $7.64 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.13 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $8.31 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $7.64 3/4. Second support is February's low crossing at $7.40.



March Kansas City wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, January's high crossing at $8.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $7.97 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.44 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $8.49 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $7.91 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at $7.53 1/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.78 3/4 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.78 3/4. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at $10.36 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at $8.96 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.78 1/2. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the June-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $16.67 1/2 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.31 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $16.33. Second resistance is the June-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.31 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.20 3/4.

 

March soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at $434.50 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $509.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $477.90. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $509.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $434.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $411.60. 



March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 68.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 9th low crossing at 62.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 67.41. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 68.07. First support is the February 9th low crossing at 62.70. Second support is the January 21st low crossing at 61.74.       

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 18, 2022, 11:52 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!