INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 24, 2022, 8:14 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, February 24, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous -0.15)

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.33)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +6.9%)

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +6.9%)

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +1.2%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +6.5%)

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +6.9%)

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.9%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous (previous +3.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 248K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +23K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1593000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -26K)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (previous 811K)

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +11.9%)

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.0)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1911B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -190B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 20)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 24)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 37)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 411.508M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.121M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 247.061M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.332M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 120.262M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.552M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 85.3%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 22.741M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.86M)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, February 25, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.6%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0%)

 

                        

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 

                        

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 933.5K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2887.8K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 128.6K)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 117.7)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -3.8%)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -6.9%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 67.2)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 64.1)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.9%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 72.0)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as tensions between Russia and the Ukraine turn red hot. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,399.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 14,668.50. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 15,068.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13.



The March S&P 500 was sharply lower overnight as Russia invades the Ukraine. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4424.57 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4484.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4552.56. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-13. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 156-17. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 150-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.



March T-notes was higher overnight as it extend the rebound off the February 10th low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.269 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.269. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 128.115. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 125.175. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:April crude oil was sharply higher overnight in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Overnight trading saw April spike above the $100 mark and sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the May-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.83 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $89.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.36. Second resistance is the May-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.83. First support is last-Friday low crossing at $89.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.42.



April heating oil was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.0711 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday low crossing at $2.6728 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.0009. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.0711. First support is last-Friday low crossing at $2.6728. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.5923.  



April unleaded gas was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at $3.2088 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.7870 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.0710. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at $3.2088. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.7870. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.6188.    



April Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 5.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.349 would signal that a short-term  top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.916. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.053. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.349. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.986.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it renewed the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $97.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $97.44. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31. First support is this month's low crossing at $95.15. Second support is January's low crossing at $94.61.



The March Euro was sharply lower overnight as it renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, January's low crossing at $111.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.41 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $115.04. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline crossing at $116.26. First support is January's low crossing at $111.31. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $108.91.



The March British Pound was sharply lower overnight marking a downside breakout of February's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, January's low crossing at 1.3354 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3552 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the February 10th high crossing at 1.3641. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3745. First support is January's low crossing at 1.3354. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3311.



The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.0715 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.0715.  

 

The March Canadian Dollar was sharply lower overnight and marked a downside breakout of the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $77.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 10th high crossing at $79.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 10th high crossing at $79.13. Second resistance is the January 26th high crossing at $79.66. First support is the overnight low crossing at $77.83. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.



The March Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087137 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087137. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.085955. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was sharply higher overnight as a flight-to-safety move on the part of investors pushed the market to its highest level since January 2021. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1847.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1885.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1847.20.



May silver was sharply higher overnight and spiked above November's high as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $25.904 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.387 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $25.750. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $25.904. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $24.020. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.387.   



May copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4416 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, last-October's high crossing at 4.7415 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.6995. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 4.7415. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4416. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.2880.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was limit up overnight as it extends the rally off last-September's low as Russia invaded Ukraine overnight. The limit up trade overnight sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off September's low, the June-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.44 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $7.16 1/4. Second resistance is the June-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.44 1/2. 



May wheat was limit up overnight as Russia invades the Ukraine. Overnight trading sets the stage for a limit up opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.99 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.34 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.72 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.99 1/2.



May Kansas City wheat was limit up overnight as Russia invades the Ukraine. Overnight trading sets the stage for a limit up opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2019-rally crossing at $10.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.22 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2019-rally crossing at $10.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.52 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.22 1/2.



May Minneapolis wheat was sharply higher overnight and posted a new contract high on news that Russia has invaded the Ukraine. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the April-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $10.62 3/4. Second resistance is the April-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.72 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.54. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.73 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.73 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at $14.90.

 

May soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $443.10 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $443.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $415.80. 



May soybean oil was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 74.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.82. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.42.       


Comments
By metmike - Feb. 24, 2022, 12:50 p.m.
Like Reply

tallpine, thanks very much.

Your thread should be the hottest topic here, with every market going crazy right now because of the situation in Ukraine.

I apologize for not giving it more attention.


Beans went from almost limit up to lower.

Corn and wheat were locked limit up for hours but are still sharply higher. 

Crude and ng are way off their highs.

For sure weather is taking a back seat!