INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 24, 2022, 5:12 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, February 25, 2022 



8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.6%)

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)



8:30 AM ET. January Advance Report on Durable Goods



                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0%)

                       

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

                       

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 933.5K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2887.8K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 128.6K)



10:00 AM ET. January Pending Home Sales Index



                       Pending Home Sales (previous 117.7)

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -3.8%)

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -6.9%)



10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 67.2)

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 64.1)

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.9%)

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1%)

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 72.0)



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow managed to close higher on Thursday signaling a possible end to the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 30,547.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,281.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,281.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,719.39. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 32,264.22. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 30,547.53.



The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021 rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,435.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 14,668.50. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 15,068.00. First support is today's low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021 rally crossing at 12,847.13.



The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4430.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4484.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4554.94. First support is today's low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 5/32's at 152-13. 



March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-03. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 150-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.



March T-notes closed up 50-pts. at 126.140.



March T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.260 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 123.084 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.260. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 128.115. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 125.175. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 123.084. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday but well off session highs that were triggered by Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $87.46 are needed to signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the May-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $100.54. Second resistance is the May-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.83. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $87.46. Second support is the January 24th low crossing at $81.06.   



April heating oil closed higher on Thursday but well off session highs following today's invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $267.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $326.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $300.00. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $307.11. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $267.28. Second support is the February 1st low crossing at $259.23.  



April unleaded gas close higher on Thursday following news of Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. However, profit taking ahead of the closed erased most of today's early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at $320.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $278.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 307.01. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at $320.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $278.00. Second support is the February 1st low crossing at $261.88.    



April Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday but well off session highs as it extends the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, February's high crossing at 5.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.334 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 5.053. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline crossing at 8.606.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.334. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.984.    



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $98.31 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $94.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $97.74. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $98.31. First support is the February 21st low crossing at $95.65. Second support is February's low crossing at $95.15.  



The March Euro closed lower on Thursday and spiked to a new contract low in early trading. However, the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $108.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 115.04. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline crossing at 114.63. First support is today's low crossing at 111.11. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $108.91.



The March British Pound closed sharply lower on Thursday as it spiked to a new low for the year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends today's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3550 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3550. Second resistance is the February 10th high crossing at 1.3641. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3166. 

 

The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0834 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, January's low crossing at 1.0715 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1015. First support is February's low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is the January's low crossing at 1.0715.  



The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. A short covering rally ahead of the close tempered early-session losses, which allowed March to extend the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 71.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.13. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 80.32. First support is today's low crossing at 77.64. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.13.



The March Japanese Yen posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087123 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087123. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.086380. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.084932.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed lower on Thursday as a sell off into the close erased early session gains on news of Russia's invasion of the Ukraine. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1844.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2020 high crossing at $1985.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is the November-2020 high crossing at $1985.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1879.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1844.20.  



May silver closed lower on Thursday as it posted a huge key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.329 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 25.904 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 25.705. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 25.904. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.903. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.329.       



May copper closed higher on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 444.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, last-October's high crossing at 474.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 469.95. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 474.15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 444.10. Second support is January's low crossing at 428.80.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed up $0.09-cents at $6.90 1/4. 



May corn closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off September's low. Profit taking ahead of the close tempered early-session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at $7.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.43.     



May wheat closed up $0.50-cents at $9.34 3/4.  



May wheat closed limit up on Thursday on news that Russia has invaded the Ukraine and posted a new contract high as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the July-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.47 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.88 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.34 3/4. Second resistance is the July-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.23 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.99 1/2.



May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.48-cents at $9.66.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher for the sixth-day in a row on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $10.01 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.11 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $10.01 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.11 1/4.



May Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.17 1/2-cents at $10.20 1/4.



May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are is possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $11.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.41 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $10.62 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $11.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.68 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.41 3/4. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed down $0.17-cents at $16.54.



May soybeans closed lower on Thursday after being up $0.88 1/4 in early trading as it posted a new high close of the year. However, a sell off into the close erased early session gains and today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off November's low, the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.70 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $16.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.70 1/4.  



May soybean meal closed down $10.40 at $455.40. 



May soybean meal closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-October's low, the June-2014 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $509.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 16th low crossing at $435.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $509.40. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $415.50.        



May soybean oil closed up 139 pts. at 71.97. 



May soybean oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.30. Second support is the February 9th low crossing at 62.81. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $2.55 at $108.08. 



April hogs closed sharply lower on Thursday following yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off October's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $121.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $112.85. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is today's crossing at $105.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.52. 



April cattle closed down $2.42 at $142.32 



April cattle gapped down and closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $139.03 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $146.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $148.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $159.54. First support is today's low crossing at $142.10. Second support is January's low crossing at $139.03. 



April Feeder cattle closed down $4.47 at $163.80. 



April feeder cattle gapped down and closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, the November 12th low crossing at $160.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $170.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $170.19. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $173.98. First support is today's low crossing at $162.03. Second support is the November 12th low crossing at $160.72.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Thursday Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 238.60 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the January 24th low crossing at 230.75 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 280.94 signal is the next upside target.           



May cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the January 27th low crossing at 24.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.99 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.   



May sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 17.39 is the next downside target.         



May cotton closed lower on Thursday as it posted a key reversal down signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month decline, the January 24th low crossing at 116.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 24, 2022, 7:13 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

I think that milder weather in early March may have been what reversed natural gas prices from sharply higher to slightly lower.

The front month March expired today also.

However, using weather for trading in this environment(what I do for a living) is taking an extremely high risk from the markets more powerful reaction to the Ukraine situation.

Chicago wheat was limit up because Russia AND Ukraine are near the top for wheat production and exports. 

Beans almost made limit up very early this morning, just below +90c, which is $4,500/contract, then reversed and closed lower.

Beans care more about news out of South America, the US or China and that market has been bombarded with extremely bullish production news from South America for over 2 months. 

There aren't as many traders of the sidelines to buy on fresh bullish news in the beans. The market can still go higher but it will do it without the help from future weather. Just too late in the growing season for that and in fact, the forecast features tons of rain still.

Over 5 inches of rain the next 2 weeks for many of the drought areas.