KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, February 25, 2022  

8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income & Outlays

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.6%)

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

8:30 AM ET. January Advance Report on Durable Goods

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0%)

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 933.5K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2887.8K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 128.6K)

10:00 AM ET. January Pending Home Sales Index

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 117.7)

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -3.8%)

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -6.9%)

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 67.2)

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 64.1)

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.9%)

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1%)

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 72.0)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,436.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,106.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,436.65. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13.

The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as investors remain concern over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4429.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4351.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4429.00. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79. 

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 156-19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 156-19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-23. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 151-29. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.

June T-notes was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 127.115 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084 is the next downside target. First resistance Thursday's high crossing at 127.115. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.039. First support is the February 10^th low crossing at 125.145. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084.   

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:April crude oil was lower overnight following Thursday's low-range close. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $89.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the May-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.36. Second resistance is the May-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.83. First support is last-Friday low crossing at $89.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $82.55.

April heating oil was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday low crossing at $2.6728 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.0711 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $3.0064. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.0711. First support is last-Friday low crossing at $2.6728. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.5923.  

April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.7939 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at $3.2088 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $3.0701. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at $3.2088. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.7940. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.6188.    

April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 5.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.394 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.938. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.053. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.394. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.003.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $97.74. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.97. Second support is this month's low crossing at $95.15.

The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.41 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $115.04. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline crossing at $116.26. First support is January's low crossing at $111.31. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.91.

The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Thursday's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3531 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the February 10^th high crossing at 1.3641. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3745. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.3272. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241.

The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.0715 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0878 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is the January 21^st high crossing at 1.0994. First support is the February 10^th low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.0715.  

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline  that marked a downside breakout of the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $77.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 10^th high crossing at $79.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 10^th high crossing at $79.13. Second resistance is the January 26^th high crossing at $79.66. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $77.65. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.

The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087094 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087094. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.085955. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.  

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was lower overnight as the initial shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine appears to be dissipating.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1850.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1888.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1850.90.

May silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.436 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $25.904 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $25.705. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $25.904. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $24.029. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.436.   

May copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4450 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, last-October's high crossing at 4.7415 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.6995. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 4.7415. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4450. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.2880.

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

May corn was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.45 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off September's low, the June-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $7.16 1/4. Second resistance is the June-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.60 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.45 1/2. 

May wheat was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.05 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.72 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.36 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.05 3/4.

May Kansas City wheat was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2019-rally crossing at $10.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.29 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.81. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2019-rally crossing at $10.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.65 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.29 3/4.

May Minneapolis wheat was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally following Thursday's sharp rally, which appears to have been a blow off top. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, the April-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $10.62 3/4. Second resistance is the April-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.74 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.53. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

May soybeans was sharply lower overnight following Thursday's downside reversal as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.78 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.78 3/4. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $15.46 1/4.

May soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's loss. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $444.60 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If May extends the rally off last-October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $444.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $417.00. 

May soybean oil was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 74.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 68.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.61.