KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 3, 2022
7:30 AM ET. February Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +0.63%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 227K; previous 232K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -17K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1476000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -112K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +6.7%; previous -5.2%
Unit Labor Costs (expected +0.3%; previous +9.6%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1158.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2099K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 686.1K)
9:45 AM ET. February US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 56.7; previous 51.2)
10:00 AM ET. February ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 60.7; previous 59.9)
Business Activity Idx (previous 59.9)
Prices Idx (previous 82.3)
Employment Idx (previous 52.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 61.7)
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous -0.4%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1782B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -129B)
11:00 AM ET. February Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.3)
12:00 PM ET. February Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, March 4, 2022
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +415K; previous +467K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.9%; previous 4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.63)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.23)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.73%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.8%; previous +5.68%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.2)
Government Payrolls (previous +23K)
Private Payroll (previous +444K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
Monday, March 7, 2022
10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 117.62)
ETI, Y/Y%
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +18.9B)
Tuesday, March 8, 2022
N/A 2nd Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
6:00 AM ET. February NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 97.1)
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -80.7B)
Exports (USD) (previous 228.1B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Imports (USD) (previous 308.9B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 44.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 38.9)
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,313.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,313.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,020.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4404.93 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4404.93. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 4484.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 159-22. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-25. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 153-10.
June T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.200 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.296. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.200. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 125.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:April crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $122.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $116.57. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $122.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $97.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.62.
April heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1586 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8761 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.8416. Second resistance is the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1586. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.9931. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8761.
April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a modestly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.6310 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8932 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.5221. Second resistance is the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.4452. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.8932. Second support is the February 18th low crossing at $2.7316.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 5.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.397 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4.938. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.053. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.397. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.087.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $97.85. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.05. Second support is February's low crossing at $95.15.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the March-2020 low crossing at $108.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.28 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $112.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.28. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $110.83. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at $108.82.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Thursday's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3505 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3505. Second resistance is the February 10th high crossing at 1.3641. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3271. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0846 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.0715.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and is poised to breakout to the topside of the January-March trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 10th high crossing at $79.13 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $77.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 10th high crossing at $79.13. Second resistance is the January 26th high crossing at $79.66. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $77.65. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday high crossing at 0.087425 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday high crossing at 0.087425. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.085955. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1875.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1913.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1875.60.
May silver was higher overnight and is poised to resume the rally off February's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $25.804 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.941 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $25.705. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $25.904. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $24.620. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.941.
May copper was higher overnight as it has renewed the rally off December's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, last-May's high crossing at 4.8400 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4732 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.7825. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 4.8400. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4732. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.2880.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking following early overnight strength that led to a spike above key resistance marked by the June-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.43 1/4. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.72 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.62 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $7.52. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.72 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.86 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.62 1/2.
May wheat gapped up and was sharply higher for the fourth day in a row overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.11 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's gap crossing at $9.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $11.34. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.23 1/2. Second support is last-Friday low crossing at $8.59 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat was sharply higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2019-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.53 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $8.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $11.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2019-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.53 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.47 1/4. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.91.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to modestly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the April-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.55 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $11.13 3/4. Second resistance is the April-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.72 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.55 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.07 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.07 1/4. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $15.46 1/4.
May soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 16th low crossing at $435.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $422.90.
May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.33. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.48.
Thank you tallpine!
Ready for another historic day?
let’s hope it’s not too memorable )-: