KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 4, 2022
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +415K; previous +467K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.9%; previous 4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.63)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.23)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.73%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.8%; previous +5.68%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.2)
Government Payrolls (previous +23K)
Private Payroll (previous +444K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
Monday, March 7, 2022
10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 117.62)
ETI, Y/Y%
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +18.9B)
Tuesday, March 8, 2022
N/A 2nd Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
6:00 AM ET. February NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 97.1)
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -80.7B)
Exports (USD) (previous 228.1B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Imports (USD) (previous 308.9B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 44.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 38.9)
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 34,095.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains during the first half of March. A resumption of the decline off February's high could lead to a retest of the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 32,264.22 is possible. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 34,095.74. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,415.47. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 32,264.22. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 30,547.53.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,305.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021 rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,305.75. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 15,068.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021 rally crossing at 12,847.13.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4404.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4404.35. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at 4484.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79.
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June T-bonds closed up 14/32's at 156-30.
June T-bonds posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 154-25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 162-12. First support is 20-day moving average crossing at 154-25. Second support is February's low crossing at 151-29.
June T-notes closed up 100-pts. at 127.190.
June T-notes posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.202 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.296. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.202. Second support is the February 10th low crossing at 125.145.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil posted a downside reversal on Thursday with the lower close as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The late-day sell off was triggered after Biden's administration seemed to minimize the likelihood of a ban against Russian oil. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $122.88 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $90.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $116.57. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $122.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $96.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.36.
April heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday after posting another new high close for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $415.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $384.16. Second resistance is the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $415.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.99. Second support is the February 18th low crossing at $267.28.
April unleaded gas close slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $363.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $288.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 352.21. Second resistance is the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $363.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $288.93. Second support is the February 18th low crossing at $273.16.
April Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, February's high crossing at 5.053 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.340 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4.938. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.053. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.340. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.087.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.05 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $97.97. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31. First support is the February 21st low crossing at $95.65. Second support is February's low crossing at $95.15.
The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, last-March's low crossing at $108.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 114.02. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 115.04. First support is today's low crossing at 110.35. Second support is last-March's low crossing at $108.22.
The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3503 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3503. Second resistance is the February 10th high crossing at 1.3641. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3166.
The March Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews last-Thursday's decline, January's low crossing at 1.0715 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1015. First support is February's low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is the January's low crossing at 1.0715.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the January-March trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.13 would mark an upside breakout of the January-March trading range while signaling that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 71.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.13. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 80.32. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 77.64. Second support is December's low crossing at 77.13.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.087425 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.087425. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.086380. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016 rally crossing at 0.084932.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold posted an inside day with a higher closed on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2020 high crossing at $1985.10 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $1878.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is the November-2020 high crossing at $1985.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1878.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1875.90.
May silver closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 25.904 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.933 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 25.705. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline crossing at 25.904. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 23.920. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.933.
May copper closed higher for the third-day in a row on Thursday as it extended the rally off December's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, last-May's high crossing at 484.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 447.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 478.80. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 484.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 447.37. Second support is January's low crossing at 428.80.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up $0.22 3/4-cents at $7.47 3/4.
May corn closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above weekly resistance crossing at $7.43 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of monthly resistance crossing at $7.72 1/4. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.55 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $7.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $7.72 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.89. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.55 1/4.
May wheat closed up $0.75-cents at $11.34.
May wheat gapped up and closed limit up on Thursday and posted a new contract high as it extends the rally off January's low. The limit up close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at $12.11 is the next upside target. Closes below today's gap crossing at $10.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $11.34. Second resistance is the January-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. First support is today's gap crossing at $10.59. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.25.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.75-cents at $11.50 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed limit up on Thursday as it posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.53 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $8.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $11.50 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $11.53 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.51. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.91.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.60-cents at $11.18 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed limit up on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The limit-up close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are is possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.74 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $11.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.74 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.56 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed up $0.04 3/4-cents at $16.67 3/4
May soybeans closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off November's low, the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.07 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.07 1/4. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $15.46 1/4.
May soybean meal closed up $5.40 at $453.40.
May soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the February 16th low crossing at $435.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, the June-2014 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $509.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is the June-2014 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $509.40. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $423.00.
May soybean oil closed down 106 pts. at 74.81.
May soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.33. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.45. Second support is the February 9th low crossing at 62.81.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.98 at $105.33.
April hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off October's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $121.70 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off February's high, the February 14th low crossing at 101.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $112.85. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is the February 14th low crossing at $101.00. Second support is the February 4th low crossing at $97.90.
April cattle closed down $1.95 at $138.15
April cattle closed lower for the seventh-day in a row on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at $136.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.76. First support is today's low crossing at $138.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at $136.30.
April Feeder cattle closed down $2.40 at $160.60.
April feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, November's low crossing at $156.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's gap crossing at $167.72. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.49. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $159.15. Second support is November's low crossing at $156.15.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 220.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 244.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.68 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 24.54 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 17.39 is the next downside target.
May cotton posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, last-Thursday's high crossing at 125.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.49 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-March.
Thanks tallpine!
News from Ukraine is 10 to 100 times more powerful than almost anything else for some markets.
Imagine what news of a cease fire agreement would do to the markets.
Imagine news that a nuclear weapon was just used.
Yes, I know those seem extremely unlikely but those are the extreme scenario's from either side that ARE VERY POSSIBLE at any point in any trading day, that up until just over a week ago, haven't existed since.................9-11-01.
If they happen when the markets are closed and you have a position, just pray that you got lucky and picked the right side.
With regards to wheat today. Just pure insanity, even compared to the other markets.
I imagine we'll see some limit down moves at some point too.