KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 4, 2022
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +415K; previous +467K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.9%; previous 4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.63)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.23)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.73%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.8%; previous +5.68%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.2)
Government Payrolls (previous +23K)
Private Payroll (previous +444K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
Monday, March 7, 2022
10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 117.62)
ETI, Y/Y%
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +18.9B)
Tuesday, March 8, 2022
N/A 2nd Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey
6:00 AM ET. February NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 97.1)
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -80.7B)
Exports (USD) (previous 228.1B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
Imports (USD) (previous 308.9B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 44.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 38.9)
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,276.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,276.26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,975.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4396.62 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4392.62. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 4484.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a modestly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 159-22. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-28. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 153-10.
June T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.211 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.296. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.211. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 125.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:April crude oil was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. However, if April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $122.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $116.57. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $122.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $98.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.41.
April heating oil was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1586 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9116 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $3.8416. Second resistance is the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1586. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.0621. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9116.
April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April extends the rally off December's low, the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.6310 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9185 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $3.5221. Second resistance is the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $3.6310. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9185. Second support is the February 18th low crossing at $2.7316.
April Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 5.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.401 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4.938. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.053. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.401. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.111.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight and spiked above resistance marked by the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $98.31 as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $98.34. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $96.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.38.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the March-2020 low crossing at $108.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.21 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.99. First support is the overnight low crossing at $109.76. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at $108.82.
The March British Pound was lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3488 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3488. Second resistance is the February 10th high crossing at 1.3641. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3271. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 1.3241.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0848 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.0715.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight following Thursday's downside reversal. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $77.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 10th high crossing at $79.13 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the February 10th high crossing at $79.13. Second resistance is the January 26th high crossing at $79.66. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $77.65. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday high crossing at 0.087425 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday high crossing at 0.087425. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.085955. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1882.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1882.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1843.10.
May silver was steady to slightly higher overnight and remains poised to resume the rally off February's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $25.804 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.073 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $25.705. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $25.904. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $24.734. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.073.
May copper was higher for the fifth-day in a row overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last-May's high crossing at 4.8400, which marks the upper boundary of 2021-2022-trading range would signal the resumption of the rally off the January-2020 low into uncharted territory. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4732 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.8790. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 4.8880. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5113. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4835.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher overnight and is challenging key resistance marked by the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.72 3/4. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off September's low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.71 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.72 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.01 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.71 1/2.
May wheat gapped limit up overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a limit up opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.11 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's gap crossing at $10.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $12.09. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2016 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.11. First support is Thursday's high crossing at $11.34. Second support is Thursday's gap crossing at $10.59.
May Kansas City wheat gapped lock limit up overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a limit up opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2019-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.54 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's gap crossing at $10.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $12.25 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2019-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.54. First support is Wednesday's gap crossing at $10.03. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.90 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat gapped up and traded limit in overnight trading as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a limit up opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.33 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $11.78 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.33 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.88 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.13. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $15.46 1/4.
May soybean meal was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 16th low crossing at $435.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $424.40.
May soybean oil was sharply lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 77.33. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.80.
Thanks tallpine!
Who wants to be short energies or grains going into this weekend????
Or have a speculative/short term trade long equities or other markets?
2 days is plenty of time to be trapped in a position when the Ukraine news contains something unexpected.
There has never been a situation like this in history.
9-11-01 was a 1 and done thing and MORE extreme with regards for the time frame of closed markets but the fundamentals didn't change much compared to now.
So when they reopened, it wasn't this extreme.
Maybe only MWE in 2008, will end up being the only commodity that was MORE extreme after all this is over?