INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 8, 2022, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, March 8, 2022  

 



 

 

N/A 2nd Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey

 



 

 

6:00 AM ET. February NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

 

                       Small Business Idx (previous 97.1)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -80.7B)

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 228.1B)

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%)

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 308.9B)

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous +1.6%)

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

 

10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 44.0)

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 38.9)

 

10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidated some of the sharp decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,142.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,142.56. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,857.78. First support is February's low crossing at 13,025.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2021's rally crossing at 12,847.13.



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4368.93 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4368.93. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 4484.50. First support is February's low crossing at 4101.75. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4055.79. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds was sharply lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 155-10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 160-12. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 160-17. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155-10.



June T-notes was lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.250 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.296 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.296. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.250. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at 125.290.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:April crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. If April extends the rally off December's low, the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $147.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $130.50. Second resistance is the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $147.27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.80.



April heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low above the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1586, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0531 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.2373. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 3.8000. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.3421. 



April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the all-time high posted in July-2008 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1140 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.2410 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.8904. Second resistance is the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1140. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.2076. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0132.    



April Henry natural gas was lower overnight following Monday's downside reversal as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.446 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off February's low, last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.184. Second resistance is last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.446. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.161.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $99.42. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $97.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.76.



The March Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.38 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $110.98. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.38. First support is Monday's low crossing at $108.07. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.



The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.2846 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3443 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3320. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3443. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3081. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.2846.



The March Swiss Franc was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, January's low crossing at 1.0715 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off February's low, the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 22nd high crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 1.0994. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 1.0764. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.0715.  

 

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $77.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 10th high crossing at $79.13 would mark a potential upside breakout of the February-March trading range. First resistance is the February 10th high crossing at $79.13. Second resistance is the January 26th high crossing at $79.66. First support is the February 24th low crossing at $77.65. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.13.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the February-March trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 24th high crossing at 0.087425 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 24th high crossing at 0.087425. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088170. First support is February's low crossing at 0.085955. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2061.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1902.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2008.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2061.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1940.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1902.70.



May silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $26.956 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.421 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $26.660. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $26.956. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.153. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.420.   



May copper is working on a possible inside day and was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline, which marked a huge key reversal down. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5871 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this week's breakout above last-May's high crossing at 4.8400, which marks the upper boundary of 2021-2022-trading range upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.0395. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5869. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5001.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was lower overnight due to profit taking following the recent test of key resistance marked by the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.72 3/4. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.82 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off September's low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.72 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.16 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.82 1/4. 



May wheat was high overnight and posted a new all-time high as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading saw a wide trading range overnight after spiking to a new all-time high. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Friday's gap crossing at $11.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $13.64 1/2. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Friday's high crossing at $12.09. Second support is last-Friday's gap crossing at $11.34.



May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's gap crossing at $11.50 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is last-Friday's gap crossing at $11.50 1/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.65 3/4.



May Minneapolis wheat steady in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.74 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $12.11 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.74 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.14 1/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.22. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.

 

May soybean meal was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 16th low crossing at $435.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $487.00. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $427.00. 



May soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 77.33. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.67.       


Comments
By metmike - March 8, 2022, 1:13 p.m.
Like Reply

The insane trading continues in wheat.

On the other hand..........sometimes traders in insane markets are predictable (-:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/82313/#82387

I would not be surprised to see wheat, when it gets done with the limit ups.........be  followed by a limit down.

When the panic buying is exhausted, who will be left to buy short term at these prices?