It has been impressive how the West (the free world) has rallied and unified like we haven't seen since WWII. Even Switzerland!
Will sanctions remain ironclad? For a month? Sure. For 3 months? Maybe? for 6 months or a year? Seems unlikely.
Sanctions involve inflicting pain on Russia, but also on ourselves.
As I see it, the biggest issue will be energy, mainly oil and gas.
At this point, the US (and many other countries) are refusing as much as possible to buy Russian oil and gas.
At the same time, the US is supposedly trying to move away from trade with China.... supposedly.
The Biden administration is trying to limit domestic oil and gas production and shutdown the keystone XL project.
That leaves OPEC as the only other major oil and natural gas producer (at least as far as I'm aware).
If the US continues on this path, we will be at the mercy of OPECs pricing, and they will know it and charge us accordingly.
Sanctions on Russia for things like not selling them food or technology are easier to hold to (as I see it), but energy is going to be the biggest gamble.
The key COULD be China's position. IF China took a position.
If China came out against Russia.............this might be enough for the West to win. This would increase the pressure and damage to Russia.
If China came out for Russia, this might doom the West to failure and ramp up the risk and pain for the West.
China appears to be neutral but their meeting with Putin in November was not to discuss golf games. China and Russia intentionally avoided the Climate meetings late last year and were blasted for it.
China CAN'T come out against Putin and make any claims on Taiwan.
China is extremely important in all of this.
China's trade with Russia has increased 50% in the past decade. China was on Russia's side prior to the invasion, but has paused due to the extraordinary reaction of the West.
They will try to walk the fine line between Russia and China.
This article in The Atlantic about the future of the world is interesting I think. Putin has given the Green movement it's biggest boost yet. The climate debate is no longer the lever that is driving the issue. Economics is.
Side note: Elon Musk (Mr. EV) advocates "Drill baby Drill"....
Great article joj!
I understand why they state things like this below. However, there is also the likelihood that the same reason for fake green energy to NOT move faster...... because it can't work the way we are told it will work will continue. Not using the laws of physics, chemistry and energy but yes using the laws of politics which means promises stuff to get agenda passed.
They won't be discovering green fairy energy or unicorn fart energy.
The quickest way to replace the energy right now, would be to just use what's there right now as Elon Musk is promoting (like you said joj).
The market doesn't know that cheap, easy to use and hugely profitable carbon capture technology is right around the corner.
I'm unable to provide more details because I'm in the process of helping to state the science for the patent.
When the market finds out about this, most people that wanted to shut down fossil fuels because of CO2 emissions will have the rug completely pulled out from under them. They will likely come up with another reason to justify it but IT'S coming soon.
Am I biased? Yeah, because I know the facts/truth and base it entirely on that. All the financial reward and favorable monetary dynamics is being thrown at the fake green energy near term though and that's where the big money will go.
It may take a couple of years to turn that around but since the train already left the station and huuuge investments will have already been made, it's going to be hard to cause those to stop in their tracks and suddenly go back to the "old" way.
From the article:
The Green-Energy Revolution Goes Into Warp Speed
Tech revolutions in the 21st century tend to be very fast. It took about a decade for the share of Americans with a smartphone to go from zero to 80 percent. But energy revolutions are lazier affairs, and the green-energy transition in particular has been torpid in the U.S. and Europe, which is perhaps surprising given the declining price of solar energy. The West has simply refused to build green-energy projects fast enough to decarbonize the grid.
The other thing is that everybody seems to be assuming that this is going to continue for a long time.
If that happens, everybody on both sides loses alot.
The markets have dialed in alot of the risk for that.
Considering the dynamics, Putin may be able to get something that he could not have gotten if he hadn't done this.
It would be idiotic for Ukraine to offer Russia ZERO and tell them to just get out.
They WILL offer something that Putin wants.
Maybe its as simple as promising NOT to join NATO or the European Union.
It's VERY possible that this is all Putin wanted all along and he could only get it this way and of a sudden..........we have PEACE.
Seems pretty extreme but that's only if you are not thinking about this long term(which Putin is) and there was almost no chance for Putin to stop Ukraine from joining NATO(his enemy) and even the European Union and working hard to obliterate Russia's fossil fuel dynasty.
Why Russia is Invading Ukraine
Started by metmike - March 2, 2022, 10:34 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/82284/
In thinking about this even more today. I am elevating the odds of this ending quickly to much higher than before!
Nobody knows if it will go for months or years or end tomorrow...........except for Putin and you can bet he doesn't want us to know his plan/real thinking.
In fact, us NOT knowing what he really wants might be part of his plan.
When you play chess, you never want your opponent to know your plan.
One can rationalize that he could be telling us clearly what he is fighting for to make his case but if he did that, you know darn well the West would be totally slamming this objective.
In fact, I was pretty sure this was about fossil fuels and am even more convinced after thinking about it objectively as possible.
If he stated that, what would be the reaction of the West?
We know Russia and China were absent from the last world climate meetings with all the other countries and got bashed relentlessly.
For him to tell us this is about Russia's interest, that include fossil fuels(their life blood #1-natural gas, #2-coal, #8-oil in the world) would have caused an extreme reaction about Putin wanting to destroy the planet because of his selfish interest as a nationalist in Russia benefiting from their polluting and killing the planet.
No way that he can "come clean" with that real agenda.
So most people speculating on what this is about are like the ones that really have no idea what this is about.
Far from me knowing everything.........just the opposite. However, the fossil fuel connection is a no brainer.
Is this backfiring with him losing short term sales of oil and motivating countries to find other suppliers?
Possibly but this is why I feel it could be resolved quicker than expected IF Ukraine gives him an assurance they will not be part of the war on his fossil fuels LONG TERM.
I hope I remember this correctly
Russia might win the battle but will lose the war
No way does russia occupy a large country like Ukraine
So: Russia defeats Kiev and wins concessions from Ukraine but then retreats to small areas won in concessions. Perhaps a peaceful retreat or re treat from greullea war fare [who knows??]
The big one is who pays to re-build the destruction caused by russian missiles
All of this destruction might be the objective of Putin
Nobody will ever know what Putin wants or thinks is a win for russia
Perhaps Ukranian economic defeat is the end game
Nobody will ever know what Putin wants or thinks is a win for russia
Thanks Wayne!
Before concluding that, let's wait to see where this goes. There's several possible outcomes. Some that will make it more clear. Some that will still leave many of us scratching our heads.
I'm willing to adjust my thinking as we go.
After Saturdays binge posting about Putin's life for fun, that I thank you greatly for Wayne, because you made the post that prompted that........ I learned 10 times more about him than I knew before.
That means I still know less than experts about Putin but it somehow makes me feel more that he would NOT start a nuclear war because of who he is. I had previously thought that there was a good chance of him using nuclear weapons but dialed that down a bit..........but really don't know at all.
And that he is looking to get some traction here in order to negotiate for what HE REALLY WANTS.
We will see what that is but I'm confident that it has to do with the value of Russia's fossil fuels in the future.
In my opinion, you are over thinking it Mike. Not everything is related to the climate debate. Putin wants Russia's empire back. All his past pronouncements point to that. If he knew how this was going to go (it has gone horribly), he would not have invaded.
He messed up. He's human.
Hitler was considered infallible by the Germans until the world caved in on them. In the end he proclaimed that the German people were not worthy of him. In other words, he didn't mess up. They failed.