INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 17, 2022, 7:41 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, March 17, 2022  

 

8:30 AM ET. March Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (previous 16.0)

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 69.3)

 

                       Employment (previous 32.3)

 

                       New Orders (previous 14.2)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 49.8)

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 23.0)

 

                       Inventories (previous 4.0)

 

                       Shipments (previous 13.4)

 

8:30 AM ET. February New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

 

                       Total Starts (previous 1.638M)

 

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -4.1%)

 

                       Building Permits (previous 1.899M)

 

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 227K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +11K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1494000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +25K)

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2166.6K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 3099.3K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 370.2K)

 

9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 77.6%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +1)

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1519B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -124B)

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 

Friday, March 18, 2022  

 

10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 

10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales

 

                       Existing Sales (previous 6.5M)

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +6.7%)

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 1.6)

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 350300)

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.4%)

 

10:00 AM ET. February Leading Indicators

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

 

                       Leading Index (previous 119.6)

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,454.89 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 12,727.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 14,389.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,454.89. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 12,942.50. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 12,727.50.



The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4422.40 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4018.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 4410.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4422.40. First support is February's low crossing at 4094.26. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4018.92. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off Monday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 155-26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 155-26. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 160-12. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 150-27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.



June T-notes was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.158 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126.024. Second resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.158. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 123.255. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:May crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $104.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $104.95. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.29. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $86.47.



May heating oil was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7869 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.3483 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.3483. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.3138. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.7869. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $2.5518. 



May unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.8077 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2420 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2420. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $3.8075. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.8077. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $2.6898.  



May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.488 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is March's high crossing at 5.199. Second resistance is last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.488. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.334.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 8th high crossing at $99.47. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $97.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.75.



The June Euro was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.85. First support is March's low crossing at $108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.



The June British Pound was higher in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3277 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.2894is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3438. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2994. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.2894.



The June Swiss Franc was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0564 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0834 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0763. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0834. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0609. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0564.   

 

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains. If June renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $77.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.78. Second resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at $79.44. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $77.51. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.19.



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.082304 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.086386 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.085760. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.086386. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.084120. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.082304.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1872.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1972.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1943.00. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1972.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1872.20. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $1845.40.



May silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.998 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.734 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.734. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.998. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $23.125.   



May copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6497 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, the February 24th low crossing at 4.4470 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6497. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.0395. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5215. Second support is the February 24th low crossing at 4.4470.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss while extending this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.18 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off September's low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $7.28 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.18 3/4. 



May wheat was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's limit down trade. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.41 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of the month. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.57 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.57 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.41 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4. 



May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's limit down trade. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.23 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $11.64 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.58 1/4.



May Minneapolis wheat was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Wednesday's limit down trade. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $11.16 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $11.16 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $10.26 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.

 

May soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $463.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $491.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $463.10. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $441.70. 



May soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 4th low crossing at 71.87 would mark a downside breakout of March's trading range thereby opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.86. If May renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 78.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the March 4th low crossing at 71.87. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at 68.22.       


Comments
By metmike - March 17, 2022, 11:38 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!