When I say quarterly stocks aren't the main event, what I mean is that U.S. corn and soy acreage in particular will be the two numbers the market wants to see first on Thursday. But never dismiss stocks.... they can stir up chaos anytime, anywhere.
To quickly decode the table - anything shaded blue is where the trade over-guessed, which is a more bullish factor. Red is under-guess/bearish. Here's the same table with true units - both views have their usefulness.
How has the trade performed on the March 31 reports? Analysts like to over-guess soybean acres but have recently lowballed soy stocks. More mixed on corn. In 2021, analysts had their biggest overshoot of corn & soy acres in 12+ years. CBOT #corn & #soybeans ended limit up.
U.S. quarterly stocks won't be the main event Thursday, but supplies are tighter than usual so they can't be forgotten. Trade estimates would be:#Corn: +2.4% YOY, -5.7% on 5yr avg#Soybeans: +22% YOY, -8.5% on 5yr avg#Wheat: -20% YOY, -30% on 5yr avg, 13yr low for date
Historical analysis shows that weather is usually the only factor that significantly changes U.S. plantings from the March intentions. That was until 2020 when the pandemic-induced spring price plunge soured farmers from both crops - even corn
U.S. acreage misses happen when the total universe of acres is misjudged. Many expected an increase this year, but it is set to rise just 0.1% over last year. The 2015-2018 average was around 319M and 2014 was 326.7M. 2022 #corn + #soybeans = 180.45M acres (-0.1% YOY)