USDA march 31, 2022 report
14 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - March 28, 2022, 8:45 p.m.

@kannbwx

Some more stats on analysts' estimates for 2022 U.S. plantings. Of 28 responses:

 #Corn 2 above 2021 area 4 at 93M+ acres 14 within 0.5M of avg 3 sub 91M

 #Soybeans3 at 90M+ 13 within 0.5M of avg 5 sub 88M 2 below 2021 area 

Corn+Soy Avg 180.73M 13 predict new high 9 at 181.5M+

Image



Comments
By metmike - March 28, 2022, 8:52 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

When I say quarterly stocks aren't the main event, what I mean is that U.S. corn and soy acreage in particular will be the two numbers the market wants to see first on Thursday. But never dismiss stocks.... they can stir up chaos anytime, anywhere.

By metmike - March 28, 2022, 8:54 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

To quickly decode the table - anything shaded blue is where the trade over-guessed, which is a more bullish factor. Red is under-guess/bearish. Here's the same table with true units - both views have their usefulness.

Image

By metmike - March 28, 2022, 8:56 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

How has the trade performed on the March 31 reports? Analysts like to over-guess soybean acres but have recently lowballed soy stocks. More mixed on corn. In 2021, analysts had their biggest overshoot of corn & soy acres in 12+ years. CBOT #corn & #soybeans ended limit up.

Image

By metmike - March 28, 2022, 8:58 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

U.S. quarterly stocks won't be the main event Thursday, but supplies are tighter than usual so they can't be forgotten. Trade estimates would be:#Corn: +2.4% YOY, -5.7% on 5yr avg#Soybeans: +22% YOY, -8.5% on 5yr avg#Wheat: -20% YOY, -30% on 5yr avg, 13yr low for date

Image

By metmike - March 29, 2022, 11:52 a.m.
Like Reply

Historical analysis shows that weather is usually the only factor that significantly changes U.S. plantings from the March intentions. That was until 2020 when the pandemic-induced spring price plunge soured farmers from both crops - even corn

By metmike - March 29, 2022, 11:55 a.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

Nov soy/Dec corn at 2.21 is the lowest for the week since 2009. 

Usually values over 2.5 favor soy and under 2.4 favor corn. 

Middle is gray area.

 In terms of Thursday's survey results, keep in mind that the survey was taken in this window:

Image

                    


By metmike - March 29, 2022, 11:56 a.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

Strictly from a new-crop futures standpoint, the market is sending the strongest signal in 13 years to U.S. farmers to plant #corn over #soybeans.

 Whether this pans out depends on a multitude of factors including inputs & availability, weather, etc.

Image

By metmike - March 31, 2022, 12:34 p.m.
Like Reply

Obviously bullish corn and bearish beans!

More stats coming right up.

By metmike - March 31, 2022, 12:35 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

U.S. Planting Intentions: #Corn acres fall outside the trade range of guesses for a fourth consecutive year.

Image

By metmike - March 31, 2022, 12:38 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

Total U.S. #wheat plantings came in below expectations, especially when it comes to spring wheat area, which is pegged below last year. Durum comes in safely above expectations.

Image

By metmike - March 31, 2022, 12:39 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

#Cotton plantings are set to be a bit larger than analysts thought, but #sorghum comes in smaller. Oats were below expectations but barley was above, rice comes in near trade guesses.

Image

By metmike - March 31, 2022, 12:40 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

This year, the trade's idea on corn + soy was not totally off, but they basically mixed up the two. 

2022 corn + soy analysts: 92 + 88.7 = 180.73M 2022 corn + soy intentions: 89.5 + 91 = 180.45M

By metmike - March 31, 2022, 12:41 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

U.S. acreage misses happen when the total universe of acres is misjudged. Many expected an increase this year, but it is set to rise just 0.1% over last year. The 2015-2018 average was around 319M and 2014 was 326.7M. 2022 #corn + #soybeans = 180.45M acres (-0.1% YOY)

Image

By metmike - March 31, 2022, 12:42 p.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

March 1 #corn stocks came in below trade guesses as did those for #wheat, but #soybeans came in a little above. The Dec. 1 stocks were little changed.

Image