INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - March 30, 2022, 4:26 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, March 31, 2022  



7:30 AM ET. March Challenger Job-Cut Report

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -20.03%)



8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0%)

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +2.1%)

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.1%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.5%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +5.5%; previous +5.2%)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 195K; previous 187K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1350000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -67K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 985.7K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 399.2K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 523K)



9:45 AM ET. March Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

                       PMI-Adj (expected 57.0; previous 56.3)



10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter GDP by State



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1389B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -51B)

                       

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



3:00 PM ET. February Agricultural Prices

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -0.9%)



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow posted an inside day as it closed lower on Wednesday's to consolidate some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 35,783.87 is the next upside target.  Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,036.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 35,372.26. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 35,783.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,790.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,036.35. 



The June NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,115.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,262.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,680.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,115.26. 



The June S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4379.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 4624.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4509.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4379.26. 



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 22/32's at 149-20. 



June T-bonds closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 152-13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 143-17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149-12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-13. First support is Monday's low crossing at 146-10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 143-17.



June T-notes closed up 125 pts. at 122.230.



June T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.203 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 120.147 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.294. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.203. First support is Monday's low crossing at 120.305. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 120.147.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.74 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $126.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $116.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.41. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $98.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.74.   



May heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9951 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.9534 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.8570. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.9534. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.2114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9951.     



May unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $3.8075 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9617 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $3.4817. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.8075. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.0309. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9617.    



May Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday erasing most of this week's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.008 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.707. Second resistance is the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.287. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.008.     



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed lower for the second day in a row on Wednesday, which suggest that Monday's high marked a double top with the early-March high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $97.72 would mark a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.12. If June renews the rally off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $99.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $97.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.12.  



The June Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.24 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $109.77 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $114.87. First support is March's low crossing at 108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.



The June British Pound closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If June extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, March's low crossing at 1.2997 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3294 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3047. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.2997.  

 

The June Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08.48 as it renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1.0972 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.0694 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0879. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0972. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0694. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609. 



The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and spiked above January's high crossing at 80.25. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the November 10th high crossing at 80.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 10th high crossing at 80.55. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 81.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.98.  



The June Japanese Yen closed higher for the second day in a row on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.084346 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.082698. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.084346. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.080085. Second support is the the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1893.90 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If April renews the rally off the 50-day moving average, the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $2078.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1893.90. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $1845.40.  



May silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline.  The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.416 would open the door for additional weakness into the end of the month. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.480 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 26.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.416. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at 23.125.       



May copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.6420 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.6420. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5767.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed up $0.11 3/4-cents at $7.38. 



May corn posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. At the same time, trading is likely to be subdued ahead of the quarterly grain stocks and planting intentions report tomorrow at noon EST. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 16th low crossing at $7.26 3/4 would mark a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off the March 16th low, March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4. First resistance is March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $7.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $6.79 1/4.    



May wheat closed up $0.13-cents at $10.27 1/4.  



May wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline ahead of Thursday's release of grain stocks and planted acreage report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.41 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.21 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.69 1/4. Second resistance is March's highcrossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.41 1/4.



May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.20-cents at $10.44 1/2.

 

May Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.50 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.13 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.57 3/4.



May Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.15-cents at $10.58.



May Minneapolis wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are is possible near-term. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $10.26 3/4 would mark a resumption of the decline off March's high. If May renews the rally off the March 17th low, March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $10.19 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.06 3/4. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed up $0.21-cents at $16.64.



May soybeans closed higher on Wednesday while extending the February-March trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 4th low crossing at $16.34 1/2 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the March 4th low crossing at $16.34 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.00 1/2.  



May soybean meal closed up $7.10 at $473.10. 



May soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $450.40 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $494.70. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $450.40. Second support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. 



May soybean oil closed up 56 pts. at 72.22. 



May soybean oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.50 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is March's high crossing at 78.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 70.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.50. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $1.58 at $104.48. 



April hogs closed lower for the second day in a row on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the aforementioned rally, February's high crossing at 112.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $108.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $112.85. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.82. Second support is the March 7th low crossing at $98.47.  



April cattle closed down $0.75 at $140.15 



April cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 16th high crossing at $141.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at $132.46 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 16th high crossing at $141.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.24. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $138.10. Second support is March's low crossing at $133.50.  



April Feeder cattle closed down $0.53 at $163.82. 



April feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $158.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the March 16th high crossing at $164.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 16th high crossing at $164.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.49. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $158.85. Second support is March's low crossing at $154.27.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 22.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renew the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 20.24 is the next downside target.                 



May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 27.10 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



May sugar posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Tuesday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.44 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, March's high crossing at 19.89 is the next upside target.              



May cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 154.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.25 would signal that a top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - March 30, 2022, 6:32 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!