KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 31, 2022
7:30 AM ET. March Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -20.03%)
8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +2.1%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +5.5%; previous +5.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 195K; previous 187K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1350000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -67K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 985.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 399.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 523K)
9:45 AM ET. March Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 57.0; previous 56.3)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter GDP by State
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1389B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -51B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. February Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,170.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,266.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,782.33. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,170.16.
The June S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4392.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4624.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.86. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4529.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4392.20.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-02. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 154-06. First support is Monday's low crossing at 146-10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17.
June T-notes was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.131 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.252. Second resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.131. First support is Monday's low crossing at 120.305. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:May crude oil was sharply lower overnight as traders eye negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.10 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $126.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $116.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.10. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at $92.20.
May heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0109 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $4.3138 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $3.8570. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.3138. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.2114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0109.
May unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9735 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $3.8075 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $3.4727. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $3.8075. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.0309. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9735.
May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.050 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.707. Second resistance is last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.876. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.342. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.050.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of its losses off Monday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $97.72 would mark a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 8th high crossing at $99.47. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $97.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.17.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.19 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-April. If June renews the decline off February's high, March's low crossing at $108.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.19. Second resistance is the February 22nd high crossing at $114.30. First support is March's low crossing at $108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, March's low crossing at 1.2994 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365 is the next upside target.First resistance is the38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3047. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.2994.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0843 would open the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at 1.0972. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.0694 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0843. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0972. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0694. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the November 10th high crossing at $80.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 10th high crossing at $80.55. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at $81.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.03.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.084125 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.082488. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.084125. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.080085. Second support is the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1895.60 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $1967.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1967.20. Second resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50. Third resistance is March's high crossing at $2082.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1895.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1832.80.
May silver was slightly lower overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.474 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.433 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $26.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.433. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $23.125.
May copper was slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.6420 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.6420. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.4685.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to slightly lower in subdued trading overnight as it awaits the release of the quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports at 12:00 noon today. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $7.13 1/2 would confirm a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.89. If May renews the rally off September's low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $7.13 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.89.
May wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it awaits the release of the Quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports later today. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.45 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.69 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.45 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.57 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.07 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.57 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.88 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $10.19 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were mostly steady in quiet trading overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.05 3/4. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $17.36 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Third resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.05 3/4.
May soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Tuesday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $451.90 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $494.70. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $451.90. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $441.70.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.83 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 76.63. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 78.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.71. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10.
Thanks tallpine!
USDA fireworks going off in just over 30 minutes!