INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - March 31, 2022, 4:52 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, April 1, 2022   



8:30 AM ET. March U.S. Employment Report

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +490K; previous +678K)

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.8%)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.58)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.01)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.03%)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.5%; previous +5.13%)

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)

                       Government Payrolls (previous +24K)

                       Private Payroll (previous +654K)

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.3%)

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



9:45 AM ET. March US Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 58.5; previous 57.3)



10:00 AM ET. March ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 59.0; previous 58.6)

                       Prices Idx (previous 75.6)

                       Employment Idx (previous 52.9)

                       Inventories (previous 53.6)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 61.7)

                       Production Idx (previous 58.5)



10:00 AM ET. February Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

                       New Construction (expected +1.0%; previous +1.3%)

                       Residential Construction



11:00 AM ET. March Global Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 53.6)



4:00 PM ET. March Domestic Auto Industry Sales


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday's and filled Tuesday's gap, which now appears to have been an exhaustion gap.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 35,783.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,101.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 35,372.26. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 35,783.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,850.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,343.02. 



The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,163.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,262.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,770.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,298.69. 



The June S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4390.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 4624.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4526.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4390.64. 



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 20/32's at 150-02. 



June T-bonds closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 152-03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 143-17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 154-06. First support is Monday's low crossing at 146-10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 143-17.



June T-notes closed up 15 pts. at 122.215.



June T-notes closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.130 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 120.147 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.130. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.315. First support is Monday's low crossing at 120.305. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 120.147.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil closed sharply on Thursdayafter the U.S. announced a giant release from its strategic reserves today. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.09 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $126.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $116.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.41. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $98.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.09.   



May heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0119 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.9534 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.8570. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.9534. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.2114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0119.     



May unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $3.8075 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9737 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $3.4817. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.8075. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.0309. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9737.    



May Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.055 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.832. Second resistance is the February-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 6.493. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.351. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.055.     



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it rebounded off trading range support crossing at $97.72. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $97.72 would mark a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.17. If June renews the rally off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $99.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $97.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.17.  



The June Euro closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.19 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound into early-April. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $109.77 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.19. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $114.87. First support is March's low crossing at 108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.



The June British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If June extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, March's low crossing at 1.2997 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3047. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.2997.  

 

The June Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Thursday but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0846. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1.0972 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.0694 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0908. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0972. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0694. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609. 



The June Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, last-October's high crossing at 81.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 10th high crossing at 80.55. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 81.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.04.  



The June Japanese Yen closed higher for the third-day in a row on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.084125 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.082489. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.084125. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.080085. Second support is the the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off the 50-day moving average, the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1895.80 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $2078.80. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1895.80. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $1845.40.  



May silver closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.475 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.433 would open the door for additional weakness into the end of the month. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 26.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.433. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at 23.125.       



May copper closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.6420 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.6420. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5822.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed up $0.10 3/4-cents at $7.48 3/4. 



May corn closed higher on Thursday following today's neutral quarterly grains stocks and acreage report. The USDA estimated corn stocks as of March 1 at 7.85 billion bushels, which was in line with pre-report estimates. However, expected corn acreage for 2022 came in at 89.5 million acres, down 2 million acres from pre-report estimates. Early gains after the bullish acreage report faded into the close and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off Tuesday's low, March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $7.13 1/2 would mark a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $7.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.89 1/4.   



May wheat closed down $0.21 1/4-cents at $10.06.  



May wheat closed lower on Thursday following today's neutral grain stocks and planted acreage report. The USDA pegged wheat stocks at 1.0245 billion bushels, which was just under pre-report estimates. Wheat acreage came in at 47.35 million bushels just below pre-report estimates for 47.9 million acres. Second quarter demand was estimated at 353.5 million bushels compared to expectations for demand to come in around 740 million bushels. It was this projected decline in second quarter wheat demand that sent wheat prices lower into the close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.45 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.69 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.45 1/4.



May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.14 3/4-cents at $10.29 3/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as today's neutral grain stocks and acreage failed to triggered new sustained buying interest. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.54 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.07 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.57 3/4.



May Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.21 1/2-cents at $10.79 1/2.



May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains signaling that sideways to higher prices are is possible near-term. If May renews the rally off Tuesday's low, March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the Tuesday's low crossing at $10.19 1/2 would mark a resumption of the decline off March's high. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $10.19 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.09 1/2. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed down $0.45 3/4-cents at $16.18 1/4.



May soybeans closed sharply lower on Thursday following a bearish grain stocks and acreage report. The USDA pegged soybean stocks as of March 1st at 1.931 billion bushels, which was 34 million bushels above pre-report estimates. The planting intentions report estimated 2022 soybean acreage at 90.95 million acres, which was 2.05 million acres more than the average pre-report trade guess. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the March 4th low crossing at $16.34 1/2 marked a downside breakout of the February-March trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.04 3/4. Second support is the Feb. 15th low crossing at $15.46 1/4.  



May soybean meal closed down $5.60 at $467.50. 



May soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $451.80 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $494.70. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $451.80. Second support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. 



May soybean oil closed down 228 pts. at 69.94. 



May soybean oil closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off March's high. The oil market was hit by sharply lower crude oil prices and a bearish gain stocks and planting intentions report for soybeans. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at 76.63. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 78.58. First support is today's low crossing at 68.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $2.78 at $101.75. 



April hogs closed lower for the third-day in a row on Thursday despite a friendly hogs and pigs report. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 112.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $108.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $112.85. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.03. Second support is the March 7th low crossing at $98.47.  



April cattle closed down $0.80 at $139.38 



April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 16th high crossing at $141.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the March 23rd low crossing at $138.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 16th high crossing at $141.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.16. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $138.10. Second support is March's low crossing at $133.50.  



April Feeder cattle closed down $2.28 at $161.40. 



April feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $158.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the March 16th high crossing at $164.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 16th high crossing at $164.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.31. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $158.85. Second support is March's low crossing at $154.27.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 22.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renew the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 20.24 is the next downside target.                



May cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 27.10 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



May sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May extends Tuesday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.46 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, March's high crossing at 19.89 is the next upside target.              



May cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday following a bearish stocks and acreage report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 154.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.04 would signal that a top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - March 31, 2022, 6:44 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!

Shocker low on the corn acreage.

Shocker high on the bean acreage.

https://www.thedailyscoop.com/news/retail-business/soybean-prices-sink-major-surprise-usdas-march-31-acreage-report