KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, April 1, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +490K; previous +678K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.8%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.58)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.01)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.03%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.5%; previous +5.13%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +24K)
Private Payroll (previous +654K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.3%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. March US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 58.5; previous 57.3)
10:00 AM ET. March ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (expected 59.0; previous 58.6)
Prices Idx (previous 75.6)
Employment Idx (previous 52.9)
Inventories (previous 53.6)
New Orders Idx (previous 61.7)
Production Idx (previous 58.5)
10:00 AM ET. February Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +1.0%; previous +1.3%)
Residential Construction
11:00 AM ET. March Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53.6)
4:00 PM ET. March Domestic Auto Industry Sales
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,212.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,266.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,810.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,212.94.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4400.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4624.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.86. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4532.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4400.35.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 154-01. First support is Monday's low crossing at 146-10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 143-17.
June T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.029 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.172. Second resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.029. First support is Monday's low crossing at 120.305. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 120.147.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:May crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.41 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $126.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $116.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $126.42. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $96.41. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at $92.20.
May heating oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0291 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $4.3138 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $3.8570. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.3138. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.2114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0291.
May unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9854 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off the March 15th low, March's high crossing at $3.8075 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $3.4727. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $3.8075. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.0309. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9854.
May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.082 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 5.832. Second resistance is last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.876. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.419. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.082.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of its losses off Monday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 17th low crossing at $97.72 would mark a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 8th high crossing at $99.47. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the March 17th low crossing at $97.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.23.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's key reversal down. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $109.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.13 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-April. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.13. Second resistance is the February 22nd high crossing at $114.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $109.77. Second support is March's low crossing at $108.46.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365 is the next upside target.If June renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, March's low crossing at 1.2994 is the next downside target. First resistance isthe38% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3277. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March decline crossing at 1.3365. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3047. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.2994.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1.0972 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.0694 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.0908. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0972. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0694. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, last-October's high crossing at $81.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 10th high crossing at $80.55. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at $81.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.12.
The June Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.083849 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.082264. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.083849. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.080085. Second support is the June-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.079450.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $1967.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1897.80 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1967.20. Second resistance is the February 24th high crossing at $1976.50. Third resistance is March's high crossing at $2082.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1897.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1832.80.
May silver was lower overnight and the low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.433 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.437 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $26.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.437. Second support is the February 15th low crossing at $23.125.
May copper was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.6420 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.6420. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5849.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to slightly lower in subdued trading overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off Tuesday's low, March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $7.13 1/2 would confirm a downside breakout of this month's trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.92. First resistance is March's high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $7.13 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.92.
May wheat was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's trading range following yesterday's neutral quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.05 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.69 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.77 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.50.
May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.57 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.98 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $11.64 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $9.57 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 22nd high crossing at $11.23 would mark a possible upside breakout of March's trading range and would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $10.19 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline following yesterday's bearish grain stocks and acreage reports. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.08 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-April. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $16.83 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted.First resistance is the March 23rd high crossing at $17.36 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Third resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.08 1/4. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.
May soybean meal was steady overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Tuesday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $453.20 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $494.70. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $453.20. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $441.70.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.59 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 76.63. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 78.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.81. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 68.10.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $2.78 at $101.75.
April hogs closed lower for the third-day in a row on Thursday despite a friendly hogs and pigs report. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 112.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $108.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $112.85. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.03. Second support is the March 7th low crossing at $98.47.
April cattle closed down $0.80 at $139.38
April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 16th high crossing at $141.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the March 23rd low crossing at $138.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 16th high crossing at $141.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.16. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $138.10. Second support is March's low crossing at $133.50.
April Feeder cattle closed down $2.28 at $161.40.
April feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $158.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the March 16th high crossing at $164.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 16th high crossing at $164.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.31. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $158.85. Second support is March's low crossing at $154.27.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 22.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renew the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022-rally crossing at 20.24 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 27.10 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May extends Tuesday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.46 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, March's high crossing at 19.89 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday following a bearish stocks and acreage report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 154.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.04 would signal that a top has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!