It took just 4 days for the SPR scheme to blow up
19 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - April 4, 2022, 4:26 p.m.
Comments
By metmike - April 4, 2022, 5:09 p.m.
Like Reply

From the article:

The president remarked Thursday that the U.S. release of emergency oil reserves would lead to gas prices declining by up to 35 cents a gallon. However, White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein noted that SPR releases were a “time-limited function” during a press briefing on Friday.

  


 

“It’s not a ‘strategic price reserve.’ It was never intended for this and it won’t do anything, just like the last one,” Institute for Energy Research President Tom Pyle told the Daily Caller News Foundation after Biden’s announcement. “This is about nine days worth of demand, but even less because a barrel of crude from the Reserve does not equal a barrel of gasoline.”

 

Biden released 50 million barrels of oil in November and another 30 million barrels on March 1. Both previous stockpile releases were followed by temporary decreases in gasoline prices before prices then shot up again.

 

The average cost of gasoline hit its highest level ever mere weeks after Biden’s March 1 release of oil. 

 

On Monday, oil prices again seemed unfazed by the historic global oil stockpile releases, rising on continued concerns about the impact of declining Russian energy output and lack of progress on a renewed Iran nuclear deal, Reuters reported.

  metmike: This would be like, in the middle of the great  Mississippi River flood in the Summer of 1993.......when it didn't rain for a day with the forecast for the rains to increase again in 2 days and be heavy for the rest of the month saying.......look everybody, it's not raining today, that means the Mississippi River will be going down!Or in the drought of 1988, that started early in the year from a La Nina(like this current one) that lasted well into the Summer... after a small rain in May, saying, "look everyone, it rained! This will really help our crops come harvest time in September!


The reality is that this is an ABUSE of the SPR.

 The PERMANENT solution to fix the long term issue of high prices is to send a signal to the market to DRILL FOR and GET MORE from the ground. Closing pipelines(Keystone) and making it illegal to drill (for ng) on federal land is the complete  opposite of this. 

Telling big oil and big money to go get more fossil fuels (with actions favorable for it) to lower prices in the US is needed...instead of discouraging them and trying to entice all their money to be invested in fake green energy. 

By metmike - April 4, 2022, 5:18 p.m.
Like Reply

The opposition says things like: "But the Keystone Pipeline was not even close to completion and none of that oil would be here right now to help!

This is true to some extent. However,  the SPR oil is available immediately, how much did that help???

It's a market that dials in the future risks and uses pricing based on future expectations.

If the market knew that crude oil production would be doubling next year or the year after(an exaggeration), prices would crash NOW ahead of expected increases.

Much of the current price in fossil fuels is dialing in an EXPECTATION for the future and risk for continued shortages because of the WAR ON FOSSIL FUELS.

The big money, is shying away from fossil fuel investments because the government is is making it much more profitable to invest in fake green energy!


  $555 billion to fight the fake climate crisis            

                            Started by metmike - Nov. 2, 2021, 12:19 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/76969/


Aside from the pipeline that everybody knows about and won't be bringing us oil for several years, there are trillions of dollars that will NOT be spent before then on fossil fuels(that would have before at these prices) if the big money/fossil fuel interests have better opportunities with fake green energy.

Biden's message was loud and clear on day one, when he signed up with the Climate Accord, canceled the Keystone Pipeline and told everybody the US government under his leadership was on a path to get rid of fossil fuels ASAP.


If you were in the business of making raincoats and Biden announced that our government's NEW official policy is to get rid of raincoat production in the next 10 years or ASAP and replace all of them with umbrella production...........you would be looking for opportunities to switch to the umbrella business, starting ASAP.!


By joj - April 5, 2022, 8:48 a.m.
Like Reply

Mike,

I have a question.  If not now, when would be the time to use the SPR?

Please control your urge to go on a rant about the Fake Climate crisis.  :)

Thanks in advance.

By metmike - April 5, 2022, 11:04 a.m.
Like Reply

Good question joj!

OK, after thinking about it more, this is actually a good time to use the SPR to replace lost supplies coming from Russia.

 I agree with you!

That's one reason why I like having you here!


By metmike - April 5, 2022, 11:20 a.m.
Like Reply

Use of the SPR last November to reduce prices was the abuse of it!

The SPR release this time, should not be sold as a way to reduce prices. It's there to bring supplies in times of a supply disruption emergency............like this time.

Let the market decide the price but the SPR is there to help make sure the US has sufficient supply to run our economy.


Do you agree with that joj?

By mcfarm - April 5, 2022, 11:24 a.m.
Like Reply

guys, that reserve is for EMERGENCIES, ya know like WW II, It is not there for some politician to totally screw a countries energy independence with stupid policy decisions, then claim an emergency and try to bail his own idiotic policies out.

By metmike - April 5, 2022, 12:18 p.m.
Like Reply

Mcfarm,

so if the exact same global and US short term , emergency oil market supply situation existed……only it was because we declared war on Russia and vise versa…..it would be ok?

I totally get the screwed up, worst in history energypolicies of Biden but this seems like a short term emergency outside of that To me.

the november release of spr oil was not though.

though the sanctions on Russia are intentional and its a self imposed loss of supply, its still an emergency and needed just as bad.


By Jim_M - April 5, 2022, 1:11 p.m.
Like Reply

IMO, even with the SPR withdrawals, the overall supplies in the US continue to be in a deficit type situation.  Does it really matter if it comes from a oil tank or SPR?  It's still a draw on overall US supplies.  To me, it just reinforces the idea that we don't have enough oil.  

By joj - April 5, 2022, 1:31 p.m.
Like Reply

I agree with your points Mike.

By metmike - April 5, 2022, 1:37 p.m.
Like Reply

Agree Jim!

The SPR is to help us temporarily, thru an emergency until the situation is fixed.

The really bad energy policy is still broken.

Using the SPR here is appropriate but must come with a change in the energy policy.

If Russia comes back on line, things are not as bad.........but they are still bad. This should be a crystal clear wake up call screaming a loud message to Biden about his horrible energy policy. 

The answer seems to be to completely  ignore it and continue with the fake green energy scheme to support his party's agenda. 

By metmike - April 5, 2022, 11:38 p.m.
Like Reply

These charts help provide some perspective, when the explanations of what happened and why the rig count and prices acted this way are provided.


https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-rigs

The number of active US rigs drilling for oil, an early indicator of future output, was up by 2 to 533 in the week ended April 1st, the highest since April 2020, Baker Hughes data show. source: Baker Hughes Company                                                



Baker Hughes Crude Oil Rigs


Crude oil price below

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil


By metmike - April 6, 2022, 12:09 a.m.
Like Reply

Watch Four Years of Oil Drilling Collapse in Seconds

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-oil-rigs/


metmike: Rig counts soared higher/doubled in less and 5 years, starting in 2010 as fracking technology hit the industry which also resulted in an explosion in US production of oil and natural gas.

The increase in production resulted in prices plunging, along with the Climate Accord in 2015, making the war on fossil fuels a top, global priority (get rid of them ASAP)...........caused the rig count to fall off of a cliff. 

Trump's fossil fuel favorable policies were helping to increase rigs and production again.......then COVID hit in 2020, demand dropped off a cliff with prices dropping plunging and pulled the rug out with rigs dropping to the lowest in 10 years.

After that COVID spike down, the rig count has slowly continued to recover but is still only 1/3rd as high as it was in 2015, even with current prices at similar levels (or even higher) than 2015.

Why isn't the rig count soaring much higher,?

We still have the new fracking technology  with prices more than high enough to provide incentive?

A big reason is that the war on fossil fuels has changed the objectives and long term plans for many in this industry. 

This administration, in particular but the global message in general (Climate Accord/fake climate crisis) is sending a strong message, verbally and policy/action wise that investments in fake green energy, like wind and solar energy will be getting the preferable tax/funding structures and fossil fuel plays being phased out/discouraged.


$150 oil could provide very  strong price incentive/rewards to the big money that is most concerned with their long term investments on the future but not if that future is looking shaky for fossil fuels.  Fossil fuels are the past. Fake green energy is the future. 


By mcfarm - April 6, 2022, 9:53 a.m.
Like Reply

there is a gas station in California and someone has posted their gas price on the internet. It read 8.99 per gallon. Now if old Joe Biden had to actually purchase gas for a car like most all Americans do, that sign right there would be plenty incentive all by its lonesome.

By metmike - April 6, 2022, 11:24 a.m.
Like Reply

Though we could be doing much better, the rig count still IS climbing and production should increase.

By joj - April 6, 2022, 1:01 p.m.
Like Reply

I am a contrarian by nature.

This thread declared the SPR release was a failure due to the recovery in the price of oil. It caused me to think "sell short now".  I haven't traded crude futures in decades and I'm getting more timid in my 60s than I was as a youngster.  So I did nothing.

But here we are back under 100 bucks a barrel.  Of course these short term gyrations may have nothing at all to do with SPR policy at all.  But I'm tickled that the post came out at a perfect moment to sell short.  

And take no offense at that Mike.  I'm a great fade when I'm most opinionated.  :)

By metmike - April 6, 2022, 2:04 p.m.
Like Reply

No offense taken joj!

Your contrarian and other views are extremely appreciated, even more than those that agree with me.  

You're a brilliant guy and can see things that I don't to help me out!

By metmike - April 18, 2022, 11:44 a.m.
Like Reply

‘Too Many Constraints’ to Rapidly Boost Lower 48 Oil, Natural Gas Production, Experts Say

 

Lower 48 oil and natural gas production is on the rise, particularly in the Permian Basin, but shortages of labor, materials and equipment will prevent a rapid supply response to current market tightness, according to experts. The Biden administration has called on U.S. producers to ramp up supply in order to lower gasoline prices and… 

By metmike - April 18, 2022, 6:14 p.m.
Like Reply

This proves that they have no clue what they're doing(other than how to use plans to try to convince people to think they do)

  E15 gas this Summer            

                            10 responses |    

                Started by metmike - April 12, 2022, 4:04 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83265/

By metmike - April 18, 2022, 6:25 p.m.
Like Reply

Biden administration to resume leasing for oil and gas drilling on federal lands

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/15/biden-administration-to-resume-leasing-for-oil-and-gas-drilling-on-federal-lands.html

In late February, the administration said it was delaying decisions on new oil and gas drilling on federal land after a federal court blocked federal agencies from using an estimate known as the “social cost of carbon” to evaluate the damage done by carbon emissions stemming from energy production.

metmike: This is a total bs, fake number because the authentic social cost of carbon is a positive number when you dial in the benefits!!!

The Social Benefit of Carbon: $3.5 Trillion in Agricultural Productivity

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/10/the-social-benefit-of-carbon-3-5-trillion-in-agricultural-productivity/


Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
Craig D. Idso, Ph.D.

The Positive Externalities
of Carbon Dioxide:

http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/co2benefits/MonetaryBenefitsofRisingCO2onGlobalFoodProduction.pdf