KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, April 15, 2022 

8:30 AM ET. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous -11.8)

                       Employment Idx (previous 14.5)

                       New Orders Idx (previous -11.2)

                       Prices Received (previous 56.1)

9:15 AM ET. March Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 77.6%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)

10:00 AM ET. March State Employment and Unemployment

4:00 PM ET. February Treasury International Capital Data

  N/A              U.S. stock markets closed on Good Friday

  N/A              Emancipation Day observed in Washington, DC

  N/A              Marianas: Good Friday

 Monday, April 18, 2022 

9:00 AM ET. IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 2 released

9:00 AM ET. IMF Global Financial Stability Report chapter 2 released

10:00 AM ET. April NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 79)

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The Dow closed slightly lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off March's high, minor support crossing at 33,434.60 is the next downside target. If the Dow renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 35,783.87 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 35,372.26. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 35,783.87. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 34,102.81. Second support is the March 8^th low crossing at 32,578.73.

The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 13,527.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,598.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,262.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 13,833.79. Second support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 13,527.67. 

The June S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4362.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4499.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 4624.48. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.80. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4375.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4362.09. 

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June T-bonds closed down 2-11/32's at 140-27. 

June T-bonds closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-30. First support is today's low crossing at 140-24. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16.

June T-notes closed down 1000 pts. at 119.255.

June T-notes closed lower on Thursday ending a two-day bounce off Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.243 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.243. Second resistance is the March 31^st high crossing at 123.040. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 119.105. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 117.135.  

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May crude oil closed higher for the third day in a row on Thursday as it extended the rally off Monday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. Closes above the March 30^th high crossing at $108.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off the March 24^th high, March's low crossing at $92.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 30^th high crossing at $108.75. Second resistance is the March 24^th high crossing at $116.64. First support is March's low crossing at $92.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $86.47.   

May heating oil closed higher for the third day in a row on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of the March decline crossing at 3.9534 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1933 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.9192. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March decline crossing at $3.9534. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1933. Second support is the March 15^th low crossing at $2.8635.    

May unleaded gas closed higher for the third day in a row on Thursday as it extended the rally off the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0841. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the March 24^th high crossing at 3.3954 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday low crossing at $2.9867 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 2.8105. First resistance is the March 24^th high crossing at $3.3954. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.7000. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.9867. Second support is March's low crossing at 2.8105.      

May Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.861 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7.322. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.370. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.861.     

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The June Dollar posted a key reversal down as it closed higher on Thursday to extend the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $102.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.09 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $102.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $99.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.09.  

The June Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off the March 31^st high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 31^st high, the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.00 would would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.43. First support is today's low crossing at $107.81. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.

The June British Pound closed lower on Thursday leaving yesterday's key reversal up unconfirmed at this time. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3114 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off the March 23^rd high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2894 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3114. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3263. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2969. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2894.  

The June Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off the March 31^st high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 31^st high, March's low crossing at 1.0609 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0817 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0817. Second resistance is the March 31^st high crossing at 1.0908. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0626. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0609.

The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday leaving Wednesday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.99 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 80.61. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 81.14. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.99. Second support is March's low crossing at 77.52.  

The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, March's low the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.081528 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.080562. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.081528. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.079290. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.  

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April gold closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's gains. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the March decline crossing at $2005.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1920.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1981.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March decline crossing at $2005.50. First support  is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1920.70. Second support is March's low crossing at $1888.30.  

May silver closed lower on Thursday posting a key reversal down as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the March 24^th high crossing at 26.160 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.769 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 24^th high crossing at 26.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.769. Second support is the March 29^th low crossing at 24.045.        

May copper closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.6240 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.6240. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.4685.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

July Corn closed up $0.05 3/4-cents at $7.83 3/4. 

July corn closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-September's low. Dryness across large portions of the U.S. and renewed concerns for dryness in portions of South America along with declining ethanol stocks underpinned today's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29^th low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing near $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.41 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $7.86. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing near $7.99 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.56. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.41.     

July wheat closed down $0.16 3/4-cents at $11.04 1/2.  

July wheat closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking ahead of the Easter holiday weekend. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the March decline crossing at $11.60 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.58 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 22^nd high crossing at $11.39 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March decline crossing at $11.60 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.58 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.85 1/2. 

July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.20 3/4-cents at $11.57 1/4.

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking ahead of the Easter holiday weekend. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29^th low crossing at $9.93, March's high crossing at $12.59 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.89 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $11.90 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.59. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.89 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.06.

July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.12 1/4-cents at $11.46 3/4.

July Minneapolis wheat closed lower due to profit taking ahead of the Easter holiday weekend on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are is possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29^th low, March's high crossing at $11.80 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.97 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $11.69 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $11.80 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.97 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.41 1/2. 

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July soybeans closed up a $0.00 1/4-cent at $16.65 1/4.

July soybeans closed fractionally higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at $17.13 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $15.46 3/4. First resistance March's high crossing at $17.36 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. First support is April's low crossing at $15.76 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $15.39 3/4.  

July soybean meal closed up $1.40 at $455.70. 

July soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $463.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off March's high, the February 16^th low crossing at $435.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $463.90. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $484.60. First support is April's low crossing at $441.10. Second support is the February 16^th low crossing at $435.50. 

July soybean oil closed up 74 pts. at 78.11. 

July soybean oil closed higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, bean oil is in uncharted territory and upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.19. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.93. 

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June hogs closed up $0.88 at $118.48. 

June hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the March 7^th low crossing at $109.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.32. Second resistance is the March 16^th high crossing at $122.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $111.94. Second support is the March 15^th low crossing at $109.15.  

June cattle closed down $0.53 at $136.35 

June cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's slow. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $135.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.44. Second resistance is the March 29^th high crossing at $138.53. First support is the April 6^th low crossing at $132.48. Second support is March's low crossing at $130.97.  

May Feeder cattle closed down $0.28 at $161.68. 

May Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday, The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $156.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.85. Second resistance is the March 29^th high crossing at $170.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $156.85. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $156.27.   

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May coffee closed lower on Thursday and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.26 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the March 28^th low crossing at 21.25 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off March's low, the February 23^rd high crossing at 25.20 is the next upside target.              

May cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, March's low crossing at 24.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.          

May sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.81. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 20.69 is the next upside target.              

May cotton closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking ahead of the Easter holiday weekend but not before posting a new contract high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 154.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.25 would confirm that a top has been posted.