gold seasonal
8 responses | 0 likes
Started by bear - April 15, 2022, 10:59 p.m.

gold is looking good,  but the last half of april is normally a weak timeframe on the charts. 

if you're long, have a tight stop.  

Comments
By metmike - April 16, 2022, 1:56 p.m.
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By bear - April 17, 2022, 12:25 a.m.
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in the bigger picture, that big 12 year cup and handle may finally break out at any point.  or it may go on longer. 


By bowyer - April 20, 2022, 4:18 p.m.
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A couple of questions from a farmer. Why would gold and silver have seasonals? I understand why grains would usually have weather premium built in going into summer heat and then also harvest lows. Is there times of the year where supplies are limited? Also in regards to silver, the physical seems to be in high demand while futures don't seem to respond. One ounce silver eagles selling for $38 each while silver is trading at $25. I buy pre 1965 silver coins because I can buy it for $30 ounce melt value.

By joj - April 21, 2022, 11:09 a.m.
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Bear,

I'm curious about just how well seasonal studies work for each commodity.  Is it quantifiable?  

For example:  One can give an exact figure for correlation between interest rates / stocks or Corn/Soybeans etc...

Is gold seasonal as reliable as grain seasonal?  

Thanks

By metmike - April 21, 2022, 11:37 a.m.
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Thanks joj!

I know that you posed the question to bear and hope that he responds too. I'll leave gold to him.

This is one of the best discussions on seasonality with awesome graphs. 

Why to Trade Seasonality?

Heating Oil - Seasonal Pattern

Soybeans - Seasonal Pattern30-Year T-Bonds - Seasonal Pattern

Heating Oil - 20 Years for pattern calculationCorn Mar-May Spread 5-30 Years Pattern Correlation

By metmike - April 21, 2022, 11:41 a.m.
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OK, I noticed bowyer asked why gold and silver have seasonals. 

Here's an explanation from an authority:

Take Advantage of the Different Seasonal Trends of Precious Metals!

https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/take-advantage-of-the-different-seasonal-trends-of-precious-metals/

Festivities are driving the gold price

The main reason for the positive seasonal gold price performance between early August to late February are various festivities, including Christmas, the Chinese new year celebrations and the Indian wedding season. Gold is frequently given as a gift on these occasions. Jewelry makers and merchants tend to stock up on gold prior to the festivities, and tend to push up gold prices in the process. Around two thirds of annual mine production are used by the jewelry trade.

Industrial metals are subject to seasonal trends of their own

Interestingly, platinum and palladium prices are also recording strong seasonal gains at the beginning of the year – instead of from August onward like gold. In other words, industrial demand is the dominant driver of their seasonal price trends. Very likely many industrial users tend to place their buy orders early in the new financial year.

While such calendar-driven business practices appear detrimental if one wants to obtain the best possible prices, annual planning and ordering procedures are often aligned with the financial year. Purchasers of precious metals may not be aware of the seasonal price trends, may be ignoring them because their in-house procedures are taking precedence.

By bear - April 23, 2022, 2:45 p.m.
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it also depends on whether we are in a long term bull or bear market for that specific market.  that is why you see both 15 and 40 yr pattern on the gold chart.  

and i think gold is effected by the dow seasonals also.  remember the old saying,... sell in may and go away.  so the dow might not do as well from july to oct.  maybe this is why sometimes gold might bottom in july.  

i think the dow phenomena is based on the tradition of people going on vacation in summer.  (i never really checked volume to confirm this trend).  maybe gold finds support when the dow has less support.  

sometimes the dow is weak in july , aug, sept.  

but yes, festivities in some countries support metals also.  

but you notice silver often trends with the dow.  

By bear - April 23, 2022, 2:47 p.m.
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from 2000 to 2002, silver trended down with the dow.  2008, silver was going down with the dow.  (for a short time anyway).