INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 18, 2022, 7:55 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, April 18, 2022  

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. IMF World Economic Outlook chapter 2 released

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. IMF Global Financial Stability Report chapter 2 released

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April NAHB Housing Market Index

 

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 79)

 



 

 

Tuesday, April 19, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. March New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

 

                       Total Starts (previous 1.769M)

 

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +6.8%)

 

                       Building Permits (previous 1.859M)

 

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous -1.9%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +13.4%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +13.4%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. G24 Ministers and Governors Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +7.8M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.1M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.0M

 



 

 

Wednesday, April 20, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 393.5)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.3%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 261.8)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.4%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1109)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.9%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales

 

                       Existing Sales (previous 6.02M)

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -7.2%)

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 1.7)

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 357300)

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.0%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 421.753M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +9.382M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 233.139M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.648M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.399M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.902M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 90.0%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.771M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.044M)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

Thursday, April 21, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (previous 27.4)

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 81.0)

 

                       Employment (previous 38.9)

 

                       New Orders (previous 25.8)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 54.4)

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 39.7)

 

                       Inventories (previous 0.5)

 

                       Shipments (previous 30.2)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 185K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +18K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1475000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -48K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1736K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1006.9K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 321.3K)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Leading Indicators

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Leading Index (previous 119.9)

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1397B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +15B)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, April 22, 2022   

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 58.5)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 58.9)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off March's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 13,529.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,562.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,266.64. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-March decline crossing at 15,763.56. First support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 13,835.93. Second support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 13,529.10.



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4362.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4493.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 4709.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4493.44. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 4631.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4362.82. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4299.33.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 143-23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-11. First support is the overnight low crossing at 140-03. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16.



June T-notes were lower overnight and are poised to extend the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.166 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.166. Second resistance the March 31st high crossing at 123.040. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 119.105. Second support is the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:May crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the March  24th high crossing at $116.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.69 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at $108.75. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $116.64. First support is the March 15th low crossing at $92.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $86.47.



May heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the April 7th low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off the April 7th low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $4.1278 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.5087 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.9700. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $4.1278. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.5087. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.2172.



May unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, the March 24th high crossing at $3.4727 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0971 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $3.4727. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $3.8075. First support is April's low crossing at $2.9867. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $2.9037.  



May Henry natural gas gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.992 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7.558. Second resistance is the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.551. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.992.   



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, the April-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $101.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.21 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. Second resistance is the April-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $101.03. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.97.  



The June Euro was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off the March 31st low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.0671 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09871 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09871. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.11304. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1.07810. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.0671.



The June British Pound was slightly lower overnight as it extends last-Thursday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3106 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off the March 23rd high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2894 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3106. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3252. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2969. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2894.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.0564 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0765 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0765. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0811. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0608. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.0564.    

 

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.68 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.00 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.68. Second resistance is the April 5th high crossing at $80.61. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $78.69.  



The June Japanese Yen gapped down and was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.081278 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.080304. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.081278. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.078985. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $2010.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1928.50 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1998.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $2010.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1928.50. Second support is March's low crossing at $1893.20.



May silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $27.495 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.843 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $26.210. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $27.495. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.843. Second support is March's low crossing at $24.045. 



May copper was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.6427 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 4.4685. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8214. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 4.8967. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.6427. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.4685. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29th low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.44 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $7.93 1/2. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.62 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.44 3/4.  



July wheat was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off March's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29th low, psychological resistance crossing at $12.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.62 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 22nd high crossing at $11.39 3/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $12.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.62 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.93. 



July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off March's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $12.59 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.95 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $11.90 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.59. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.95 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.06.



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $11.80 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $11.76 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $11.80 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.30 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.47 1/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the rally off April's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at $17.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.27 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $16.81 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $17.31. First support is April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $15.39 3/4.

 

July soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $422.70 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $465.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $465.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $484.60. First support is the 25% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $444.30. Second support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.50. 



July soybean oil  gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 78.27. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 70.18.  


Comments
By metmike - April 18, 2022, 11:34 a.m.
Like Reply

Crop progress/rating this afternoon should be bullish.

Wheat ratings very bad still.

Not much corn/beans planted.


NG off to the races. Colder later this month but its April, so weather is not big at this time of year but seasonals are extremely bullish in April and storage is LOW.

By metmike - April 18, 2022, 11:39 a.m.
Like Reply

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78385/#83416


A shift west of 300+ miles of this forecast rain shield will put a pretty bearish spin on HRW prices.

That's obviously NOT the current forecast!