@kannbwx

CBOT #corn has predominantly traded at the $7-per-bushel level in 2022. $5 was the most common handle in 2021, though $5+ had been absent from 2015 through 2020. 8% of 2022 has featured $8 (first time since 2012), though no session yet has featured prices exclusively above $8.

@kannbwx·

2h

The U.S. EPA is expected to send biofuel blending mandates for 2020, 2021 & 2022 to the White House for final review by early next week. It is unclear whether the volumes will be the same as proposed in December, where 2020 & 2021 were below expectations.

reuters.comU.S. EPA to send 2020-2022 biofuel mandates to White House by early next week -sourcesThe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to send biofuel blending mandates for 2020, 2021 and 2022 to the White House for final review by early next week, according to two sources...

@kannbwx

·Apr 27

Remember this chart from a year ago? CBOT #corn futures had amassed record yearly gains by the end of April 2021, but as of Wednesday, 2022 gains were HIGHER, up 37% so far vs 35% a year ago. 2021 gains maxed out at +51% on May 7.+43% in 2022 would yield record prices.

Too many labels make the chart too messy, but some will wonder about those extreme years. Here you go. The #corn gains we saw in 2021 were unprecedented, but here we are in 2022, exact same scenario. How many people were expecting that?

Remember this chart from a year ago? CBOT #corn futures had amassed record yearly gains by the end of April 2021, but as of Wednesday, 2022 gains were HIGHER, up 37% so far vs 35% a year ago. 2021 gains maxed out at +51% on May 7.+43% in 2022 would yield record prices.

@kannbwx

from Wednesday

April 27: Most-active CBOT #corn futures reached $8.18-1/2 per bushel, the highest since Aug. 24, 2012. U.S. weather isn't great and planting is slow, and #Brazil's crop is dry. The contract has traded higher than Wednesday in only 8 other sessions. All-time high is $8.49.

@kannbwx

U.S. #ethanol production last week ticked up from the previous week's low, but output was below average. Stocks have tumbled 10% in the last 4 weeks as production eased, and motor gasoline demand is still sluggish with sky-high prices at the pump.

First decent rain in a very long time for some of the dry HRW areas is clobbering wheat, especially HRW prices right now.

Sunday Night/Monday is the ideal time frame.

Could have a gap lower on Sunday NIght's wheat:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83788/#83791

See more on this here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83643/

@kannbwx

One year ago at this time, the story in CBOT futures was the big rally since the start of the year. These were the moves in the first 4 months of 2021:

#Corn +34% (unprecedented at the time)

#Soybeans +15%

#Wheat +14%

#Soymeal -2%

#Soyoil +41%

@kannbwx

Moves in most-active CBOT futures: April:#Corn +9%

#Soybeans +4%

#Wheat +5%

#Soymeal -8%

#Soyoil +20%

 Since Jan 1: Corn +37%

 Soy +26%

 Wheat +37% 

Meal +8% 

Oil +49%

 Since 1 year ago: Corn +26% 

Soy +12% 

Wheat +45% 

Meal +2% 

Oil +41%

@kannbwx

Money managers have been strongly bullish CBOT #corn futures & options since late 2020. The full dataset does not go back very far (2006), but the recent pattern has never before been seen under the current format.