KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 28, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 184K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1417000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -58K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1268.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1700.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 264.8K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +6.9%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +6.4%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.0%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.0%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1450B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +53B)
11:00 AM ET. April Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 46)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 61)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 37)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 41)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, April 29, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (previous +1.0%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)
9:45 AM ET. April Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 62.9)
10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 59.4)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 54.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.4%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 67.2)
3:00 PM ET. March Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +7.4%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the March 2021 low crossing at 12,727.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,085.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,593.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,085.40. First support is Tuesday's crossing at 12,801.50. Second support is the March 2021-low crossing at 12,727.50.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 4094.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4404.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4322.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4380.88. First support is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4162.47. Second support is the February low crossing at 4094.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149-08. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 138-14. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16.
June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.092 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.092. Second resistance the March 31st high crossing at 123.040. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 118.080. Second support is the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:June crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle off March's high and low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above April's high crossing at $109.20 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned triangle and could lead to a test of the March 24th high crossing at $113.51. If June renews the decline off April's high, the bottom of the aforementioned triangle crossing near $94.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $109.20. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $113.51. First support is the April 11th low crossing at $92..60. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at $90.37.
June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the April 7th low, March's high crossing at $4.0170 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4841 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.9721. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $4.0170. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4841. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.2639.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.4806 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1330 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.4806. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.5887. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1330. Second support is April's low crossing at $2.9649.
June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.736 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional losses near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at 8.197. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.736. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 6.387.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the March-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $103.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $103.96. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $101.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.48.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06326 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.04844. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06326. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1.02980. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.02474.
The June British Pound was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 23rd high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.2232 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2953 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2831. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2953. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2474. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.2232.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the March 31st high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.01109 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.04843 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.04843. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.06326. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.02980. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.01109.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, March's low crossing at $77.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.02 would open the door for additional short covering near-term. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.24. First support is the overnight low crossing at $77.71. Second support is March's low crossing at $77.51.
The June Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight as it resumed the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.079523 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.078196. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.079523. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.076425. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was slightly higher in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1841.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average $1941.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1941.30. Second is April's high crossing at $2003.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1887.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1841.50.
July silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $22.316 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.032 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.032. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $26.275. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $23.023. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $22.316.
July copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 4.3362 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.6759 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6182. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.6759. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 4.4556. Second support is 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 4.3362.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's breakout above psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29th low, the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second resistance is the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.32 1/4.
July wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off the March 29th low, the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $11.59 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $10.55 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.43 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $11.59 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $10.55 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.42 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $12.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.27 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $12.28. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.59. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.27 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.73 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.43 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $12.03 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.43 3/4. Second support is the April 4th low crossing at $10.95 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.44 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at $17.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday high crossing at $17.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.56 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.47 1/2.
July soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $422.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $457.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $457.50. Second resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $467.80. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $422.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $403.40.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 85.77. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.07.
Thanks tallpine!
The last GFS ensemble especially, make a noteworthy but low reliability change, that would lead to drier weather in the Plains in the 2nd week in May.....maybe but much of the guidance keeps the pattern active.