KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 4, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 343.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -8.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 234.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -7.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 930.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -9.0%)
8:15 AM ET. April ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +390000; previous +455000)
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -106.7B; previous -89.19B)
Exports (USD) (previous 228.63B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Imports (USD) (previous 317.81B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refundingannouncement
9:45 AM ET. April US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 55.0; previous 58.0)
10:00 AM ET. April ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 58.3; previous 58.3)
Business Activity Idx (previous 55.5)
Prices Idx (previous 83.8)
Employment Idx (previous 54.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.1)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 414.424M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.691M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.805M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.573M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 107.286M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.449M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.3%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.821M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.788M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 0.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 0.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 8)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 1)
Discount Rate (previous 0.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.25)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
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The Dow closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated the decline off April's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at 32,272.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,138.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,138.01. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 35,492.22. First support is February's low crossing at 32,272.64. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 30,547.53.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of 2018-2021 crossing at 12,621.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,014.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,311.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,776.12. First support is Monday's low crossing at 12,709.75. Second support is the 38% retracement level of 2018-2021 crossing at 12,621.30.
The June S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 4020.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4347.43 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4249.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4347.43. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2020 rally crossing at 4020.19. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2020 rally crossing at 3894.79.
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June T-bonds closed up 20 pts. at 139-24.
June T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 143-09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-14. First support is April's low crossing at 138-14. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16.
June T-notes closed up 015 pts. at 118.130.
June T-notes closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 120.185 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 120.185. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.272. First support is April's low crossing at 118.080. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 117.135.
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June crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the March-May symmetrical triangle.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.07 would temper the near-term neutral to friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off the April 25th low, the March 24th high crossing at $116.61 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 18th high crossing at $109.20. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $116.61. First support is the April 25th low crossing at $95.28. Second support is April's low crossing at $92.60.
June heating oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.7099 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6151 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.2380. Second resistance is weekly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.7099. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.8654. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6151.
June unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday and above the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 3.4806. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 3.5887 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2686 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 3.5887. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.7000. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.2685. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.1789.
June Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday challenging April's high crossing at 8.197. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above April's high would open the door for a test of the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 6.471 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at 8.197. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 6.471. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 5.828.
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The June Dollar closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 2020-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $103.96. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $102.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.19.
The June Euro closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 31st high, the December-2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $103.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $106.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $104.91. Second support is the December-2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $103.68.
The June British Pound closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.2232 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2863 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2678. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2863. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2411. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.2232.
The June Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off the March 31st high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 31st high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2021 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.01109 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.05460 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03862. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.05460. First support is today's low crossing at 1.02240. Second support is the the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2021 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.01109.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesdayas it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2021 low crossing at 77.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.36. First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.41. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at 77.19.
The June Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off March's high, March's low the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.078788 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 0.078885. Second resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 0.080070. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.076280. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
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June gold closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1841.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1940.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1940.50. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $1997.10. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1841.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1789.90.
July silver closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the December 15th low crossing at 21.565 is the downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average 24.499 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average 23.662. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.499. First support is Monday's low crossing at 22.130. Second support is the December 15th low crossing at 21.565.
July copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the December 15th low crossing at 4.1105 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.6108 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.4813. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.6108. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.2040. Second support is the December 15th low crossing at 4.1105.
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July Corn closed down $0.10 1/2-cents at $7.93.
July corn closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.86 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off the March 29th low, the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. Second resistance is the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing near $8.43 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.86 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.41 3/4.
July wheat closed down a $0.10-cents at $10.45 1/2.
July wheat closed lower on Tuesday and below support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.57 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.57 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-May. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the March decline crossing at $11.59 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March decline crossing at $11.59 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March decline crossing at $12.00 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.57 1/2. Second support is the April 1st low crossing at $9.82.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.05 1/4-cents at $10.92 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.89 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.37 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at $12.02 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $12.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.89 1/2. Second support is the April 6th low crossing at $10.63 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.12 1/4-cents at $11.55 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.56 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes the rally off the March 29th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $12.06. Second resistance is the March 29th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.56 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.99.
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July soybeans closed down $0.14 3/4 at $16.30 1/2.
July soybeans closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to low prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 25% retracement of 2021-2022 rally crossing at $16.09 1/2 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at $17.41 is the next upside target. First resistance April's high crossing at $17.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. First support is the 25% retracement of 2021-2022 rally crossing at $16.09 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2.
July soybean meal closed down $7.00 at $423.90.
July soybean meal close lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $403.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $456.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $442.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $456.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $422.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $403.40.
July soybean oil closed up 19 pts. at 80.28.
July soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 87.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.73.
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June hogs closed down $2.78 at $102.20.
June hogs closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off March's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-April rally crossing at $97.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.31. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-March rally crossing at $102.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-April rally crossing at $97.05.
June cattle closed up $0.13 at $135.33
June cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Friday's high, March's low crossing at $130.97 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at $138.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at $138.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at $140.29. First support is April's low crossing at $133.48. Second support is March's low crossing at $130.97.
August Feeder cattle closed up $2.20 at $176.28.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $176.87 would signal a short-term trend change has taken place while opening the door for additional gains. If August renews the decline off March's high, last-November's low crossing at $166.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $176.87. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is last-November's low crossing at $166.77. Second support is the September-2021 low crossing at $166.08.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If July extends the decline off April's high, the March 28th low crossing at 21.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
July cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, the December 20th low crossing at 24.59 is the next downside target.
July sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the March 16th low crossing at 18.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 154.43 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 132.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Temps will be heating up as expected, especially at the start of next week.
That should eliminate cold soils as a planting concern in most places