Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:37 a.m.

Happy July 23rd!


 Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.


Wet East Coast!

Rains(big) increase C.Plains later this week, spreading east!  


 The latest forecasts are below.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

   




7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:38 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat..........mostly East.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:39 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:41 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Tuesday....... comfortable Midwest, to East Coast. S.Plains finally cools off a bit. Stays hot in the Southwest.

                    

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:43 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Comfortable air N.Plains/ Midwest.  High dewpoints for Northeast/East Coast...........Atlantic moisture pouring in!


Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:43 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:45 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Hot South.  Magnificent North(especially Upper Midwest/N.Plains).

Record Heat West!!!!!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:47 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Below average in the N.Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.

Heat backs up to the West!  Record heat in some places and this is the hottest time of year!!


High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Active in the East/Northeast with Atlantic moisture pouring in.


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image:

Widespread rain in the East moving from south to north to even northwest all day around an upper level low just to the west.


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:55 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.     

Wet in the East. New rain in the Plains.   

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(relief KS/MO/AR late this week)

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 10 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


                             

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks:


Today:  Cooler than average Plains to Midwest to Southeast..... heat  backed up West...pushed south in S.Plains.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Hot West!!  Below average temperatures N/C.Plains/ Midwest.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Hot West!!!!  Below average Midwest.
NCEP Ensemble t = 240 hour forecast product


Day 15  Hot West to Plains.............The pattern may be shifting and movingNCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 10:05 a.m.
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Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles.  Same question. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this nudge the trough northward?

Less than half of the members have this idea.


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 10:07 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............hot south and west.

Alot of rain Plains.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 10:07 a.m.
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August Forecast. Updated by the NWS on Thursday.

Very warm/hot, except for the N.Plains.

Dry Southern Plains to Southwest Cornbelt.............where soils are driest right now(there is a correlation as drought begets drought)



/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif
/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif
By wglassfo - July 23, 2018, 12:04 p.m.
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Hi Mike

Still only getting 1/2 width on the rain fall maps

Days 1 -7 is western side

I scroll down and move bar over

Then I get 1/2 look at  eastern side of map

Eastern 1/2 is better than nothing I suppose

Everything else is perfect

I go to your weather info every day

Real happy you do such a good job on the forum

Must be days you wish you could skip a day

 But no:

Regular as clock work

I really like your personal additions

I can make the maps work

Just thought I would update

No big deal

Tks Mike



By metmike - July 23, 2018, 1:09 p.m.
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12Z GFS is warmer than previous guidance, which had already started warming it up 2 model runs ago.........trend continues.

Week 2 which has been featuring widespread below normal temps in the Midwest to East for the previous week+ is looking more like above normal now. Possibly some much above in the southern 2/3rds.


The last operational GFS is below.

The operational GFS has been the warmest of the models over the past week.

      

gfs_namer_324_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_324_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_324_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_324_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_324_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_324_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_324_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_324_850_temp_ht_s.gif



Rainfall is pretty generous with deep Gulf Moisture surging northward.

Total rains for the next 360 hours:

       
 << Previous

Next >>

  

Forecast Hour:  360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif

By cutworm - July 23, 2018, 1:15 p.m.
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We got 2 in rain here in SEIN. Just in time, we were hurting the last 5 days before the rain. Looking at the maps I don't think Mcfarm received much if any and just 50 miles away. Hope Wayne got some.

Haven't checked pollination yet.

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 1:25 p.m.
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Thanks Cutworm!

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 1:39 p.m.
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As an ensemble average the 12z run of the Canadian model is  warmer than the previous one as we go thru week 2. The majority of members now have the heat ridge shifting east and dominating at least the southern half of the US.


Several members have the upper level ridge's extending across the southern 2/3rds of the US. This would mean "heat fill" for corn, which will be filling kernels the next month. 

372h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 8, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

By WxFollower - July 23, 2018, 2:18 p.m.
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Yes, good point about the 12Z CDN ens. Also, the 12Z GFS ens is hinting at a warmer pattern. These trends will be interesting to follow over the next few days to see whether they’re reflecting reality. 

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 4:19 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

Here's the 12z GFS ensemble mean.  Upper level ridging southern 2/3rds of the country.

   

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_300_500_vort_ht.gif

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 4:31 p.m.
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NWS extended forecast........for Plains/Midwest, widespread below normal temperatures......bearish for natural gas(and corn because kernel filling will be maximized). Hot out West. 

Wet, especially in the southeastern half of the country. 


Will this pattern shift in early August? The NWS service has a 4 out of 5 confidence in the forecast below and states that the pattern is amplified and stable. 

I disagree and think the upper level trough in the Midwest weakens and upper level ridging builds over, at least the southern half of the country....but there likely will be plenty of rain with deep Gulf Moisture coming northward.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - July 23, 2018, 4:34 p.m.
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 By pll - July 22, 2018, 9:11 p.m.            

            


Just got a nice 1 inch rain roll through here ECILL

   ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++        



                By mcfarm - July 22, 2018, 10:03 p.m.            

            

yes mother nature can be cruel...after missig rain after rain that drifted east or south east today we missed them as thry drifted west and south west...we are now about 8/10ths for July and although that's dry and hot our crops seem to be hanging in

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good for you pll. mcfarm, based on the pattern, you should have received much more rain than PLL. In fact, he should have been too far west to get an inch or rain over the weekend. It will be several days now before your next chance........not until this weekend.

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 4:59 p.m.
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Extreme Weather days 3-7: Heavy rains KS/MO/N.AR but the thing is that this area has a drought and needs the rain. Note the soil moisture map below.

HOT! out West.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif

By metmike - July 23, 2018, 5:03 p.m.
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Days 8-14 extreme weather. Possible heavy rain threat along the East Coast......speculative.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png