Happy July 23rd!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.
Wet East Coast!
Rains(big) increase C.Plains later this week, spreading east!
The latest forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Excessive Rainfall threat..........mostly East.
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
High Temperatures today and Tuesday....... comfortable Midwest, to East Coast. S.Plains finally cools off a bit. Stays hot in the Southwest.
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Comfortable air N.Plains/ Midwest. High dewpoints for Northeast/East Coast...........Atlantic moisture pouring in!
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.
Highs days 3-7.
Hot South. Magnificent North(especially Upper Midwest/N.Plains).
Record Heat West!!!!!
How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Below average in the N.Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.
Heat backs up to the West! Record heat in some places and this is the hottest time of year!!
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Active in the East/Northeast with Atlantic moisture pouring in.
Here is the latest radar image:
Widespread rain in the East moving from south to north to even northwest all day around an upper level low just to the west.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
Rains the past 24 hours.
Wet in the East. New rain in the Plains.
Missouri/Arkansas to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(relief KS/MO/AR late this week)
NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently.
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks:
Today: Cooler than average Plains to Midwest to Southeast..... heat backed up West...pushed south in S.Plains.
In 5+ days:
Hot West!! Below average temperatures N/C.Plains/ Midwest.
In 10+ days Hot West!!!! Below average Midwest.
Day 15 Hot West to Plains.............The pattern may be shifting and moving
Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. Same question. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?
Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward? Will this nudge the trough northward?
Less than half of the members have this idea.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............hot south and west.
Alot of rain Plains.
Precip below:
Hi Mike
Still only getting 1/2 width on the rain fall maps
Days 1 -7 is western side
I scroll down and move bar over
Then I get 1/2 look at eastern side of map
Eastern 1/2 is better than nothing I suppose
Everything else is perfect
I go to your weather info every day
Real happy you do such a good job on the forum
Must be days you wish you could skip a day
But no:
Regular as clock work
I really like your personal additions
I can make the maps work
Just thought I would update
No big deal
Tks Mike
12Z GFS is warmer than previous guidance, which had already started warming it up 2 model runs ago.........trend continues.
Week 2 which has been featuring widespread below normal temps in the Midwest to East for the previous week+ is looking more like above normal now. Possibly some much above in the southern 2/3rds.
The last operational GFS is below.
The operational GFS has been the warmest of the models over the past week.
gfs_namer_324_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_324_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_324_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_324_850_temp_ht |
Rainfall is pretty generous with deep Gulf Moisture surging northward.
Total rains for the next 360 hours:
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Forecast Hour: 360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif
We got 2 in rain here in SEIN. Just in time, we were hurting the last 5 days before the rain. Looking at the maps I don't think Mcfarm received much if any and just 50 miles away. Hope Wayne got some.
Haven't checked pollination yet.
As an ensemble average the 12z run of the Canadian model is warmer than the previous one as we go thru week 2. The majority of members now have the heat ridge shifting east and dominating at least the southern half of the US.
Several members have the upper level ridge's extending across the southern 2/3rds of the US. This would mean "heat fill" for corn, which will be filling kernels the next month.
372h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 8, 2018 00UTC
Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members
Yes, good point about the 12Z CDN ens. Also, the 12Z GFS ens is hinting at a warmer pattern. These trends will be interesting to follow over the next few days to see whether they’re reflecting reality.
NWS extended forecast........for Plains/Midwest, widespread below normal temperatures......bearish for natural gas(and corn because kernel filling will be maximized). Hot out West.
Wet, especially in the southeastern half of the country.
Will this pattern shift in early August? The NWS service has a 4 out of 5 confidence in the forecast below and states that the pattern is amplified and stable.
I disagree and think the upper level trough in the Midwest weakens and upper level ridging builds over, at least the southern half of the country....but there likely will be plenty of rain with deep Gulf Moisture coming northward.
Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
By pll - July 22, 2018, 9:11 p.m.
Just got a nice 1 inch rain roll through here ECILL
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By mcfarm - July 22, 2018, 10:03 p.m.
yes mother nature can be cruel...after missig rain after rain that drifted east or south east today we missed them as thry drifted west and south west...we are now about 8/10ths for July and although that's dry and hot our crops seem to be hanging in
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Good for you pll. mcfarm, based on the pattern, you should have received much more rain than PLL. In fact, he should have been too far west to get an inch or rain over the weekend. It will be several days now before your next chance........not until this weekend.
Extreme Weather days 3-7: Heavy rains KS/MO/N.AR but the thing is that this area has a drought and needs the rain. Note the soil moisture map below.
HOT! out West.
Days 8-14 extreme weather. Possible heavy rain threat along the East Coast......speculative.