RR economic indicator
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Started by bear - May 6, 2022, 5:43 p.m.

total rail traffic for this late april y-o-y is down almost 6%.  

total rail traffic for the first 4 months of the year, y-o-y is down over 3% .

yes it looks like a recession when you look at what is being shipped around the country (on rail).  

recession with high inflation is a horrible combination.  

but on the bright side,  the unemployment rate has not started to surge yet.  

Comments
By metmike - May 6, 2022, 5:48 p.m.
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Thanks bear,

Bad news!

By cutworm - May 8, 2022, 9:13 p.m.
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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, today informed customers it serves by Union Pacific rail lines that railroad-mandated shipping reductions would result in nitrogen fertilizer shipment delays during the spring application season and that it would be unable to accept new rail sales involving Union Pacific for the foreseeable future. The Company understands that it is one of only 30 companies to face these restrictions.

CF Industries: Union Pacific Curtails Fertilizer Shipments, Delaying Deliveries and Preventing New Rail Orders from Being Taken | CF Industries

People also ask

Why is Union Pacific not shipping fertilizer?

According to Josh Linville, fertilizer director for StoneX Financial, Union Pacific was behind on its own shipments, leading up to the restrictions on private rail cars such as CFI's, to catch up. “This really hurts fertilizer shipments as companies such as CFI rely on their own rail cars to move product.Apr 19, 2022

Cutworm----Does this influence the numbers????

By metmike - May 8, 2022, 10:40 p.m.
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Thanks cutworm,

Great observation!

This is very odd, considering the current situation involving a very under supplied fertilizer market with record high prices for fertilizer and extreme need for big crops this year. 

There are 2 locations for this company in the UK but the rest of them are below.

You probably can tell me more about where they actually manufacture the fertilizer and how its made available since I don't understand that dynamic and what losses in fertilizer available will be to our farmers.

Most of these are strategically located very close to the areas that use/need the fertilizer, so one would think that it makes great sense to take advantage of

1. The short distances in most instances

2. Under supplied market

3. Incredible importance of our food supply with low stocks right now

4.  Record high prices. You can only help to address high prices by increasing supply or cutting demand. Cutting demand will hurt our crop size/food supply. Increasing supply of N is THE main fixer. Why would they not make this a top priority.  

https://www.cfindustries.com/who-we-are/locations


By MarkB - May 8, 2022, 11:41 p.m.
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Cutworm.

If what you have presented is true, then rail companies are restricting their own activity in the shipping industry. Why? Like truckers, they make money by moving products. So why would they restrict the shipments of certain products that are necessary to the nation? Seems kinda fishy to me.