https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/84316/#84329
metmike: Looks BULLISH for wheat to me.
USDA projects 2022/23 ending stocks for U.S. #corn & #wheat will fall from the current year, but #soybeans are seen increasing. These trends align with trade expectations.
We're going to close OFF the limit but for the HRW contract, close to it.
Looks like wheat, especially HRW could gap much higher on the open.
Wheat opened with a massive gap higher!
More than 50c higher on the open with SRW actually a bit stronger.
Both SRW and HRW are currently limit up +70c and new highs.
I actually had a limit order to buy HRW on the open and missed it by double digit cents.
For me, this means maybe no trade from the long side.
Even with us coming down well below the limit, the upside now is covering at limit up of +70c today.
If we drop 30c, who's to say we can't drop another 20c quickly in this environment?
Any drop that fills the gap higher is an ominous buying exhaustion technical signal(gap and crap).
We're actually down 20c from the limit now and making new lows for the session for SRW.
Beans and corn were MUCH higher too but are making new lows for the session, while still higher.
I'll have to check but they could be close to gap and crap exhaustion formations, depending on whether the opening was an actual gap higher than Friday's high.
This is nuts.
OK, for the record, the July corn was NOT a gap and crap because it didn't quite open higher than the high on Friday.
December corn did and barely filled the gap but is still pretty strong and its not really a gap and crap until we are back down closer to the Fri close.
Beans gapped higher on every 2022 contract and is maintaining most of the gap.
Wheat gapped more than 30c above the high on Friday and +50c higher than the close, came back down below the open for the SRW(dropped quickly by 29c), which held and now we're +63c.
For those that haven't traded this kind of market, a piece of bearish news that often would have limited impact can cause us to go from limit up to limit down real fast.
And we can still go MUCH higher(after today).
Our corn basis has gained 21 cents this past 7 days
Some of that was to nite basis [stronger]
What does that say for price
Give it a couple days to settle down
Ukraine and India are pushing wheat price, plus NA drought in some wheat growing places. SA drought and you have a lot of problems
Craziness!
Markets still up strong but closer to the lows of the session at the moment.
The main reason for the gap higher in beans is that we closed near the highs on Friday.
Gains have been cut in half for C and S. Not saying that this is bearish, just that, if you are long, it gets mighty tough to stay long if prices were up this much and if we sell off to lower on the session.
Does anybody remember wheat hitting 20.00
By tallpine - March 4, 2022, 7:47 a.m.
All time highs in wheat
Chi. Wheat 2008 $13.34 1/2
Kansas City Wheat 2008 $13.84 3/4
Minneapolis Wheat 2008 $24.26
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By metmike - March 4, 2022, 12:58 p.m.
I actually remember the MWE high, tallpine.
https://www.twincities.com/2008/02/15/wheat-market-gone-wild/
Decades from now, farmers will still talk about this week – the moment when wheat in Minneapolis soared to nearly $20 a bushel.
metmike: They got that right!
February 25, 2008 12:20 PM
http://m.futuresmag.com/2008/02/25/mgex-wheat-smashes-records
Hard red spring wheat traded at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) hit the unprecedented level of $25 per bushel Monday as the bull market in grain hit hyper drive. MGEX recently received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to remove price limits on the spot wheat futures contract month commencing the first business day after expiration of non-serial options on the spot month. Monday was the first day the March contract had no limits. March MGEX wheat rallied from its Friday close of $19.25 to $25 on Monday before settling at $24.
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By wglassfo - March 4, 2022, 3:17 p.m.
I remember that market
I was in there on the wrong side
I legged in on a spread to mitigate my losses
I legged out but sadly lost money
This is a story that made the rounds during those insane prices
FWIW
A farmer had a bin of 10,000 bu wheat [approx.]
He was offered 20, maybe 25/bu [not sure exactly]
The farmer refused the offer
Coffee shop talk was
Classic example of:
When two fools met
MWE having a MEGA gap and crap exhaustion signal today.
Gap higher last night but NOT to new highs because of record slow planting, filled and now down 27c.
Nice rains in the S.Plains, where we have drought.
KE wheat -37c!
Crop progress:
Wheat sharply lower again Wednesday morning …..but 30c off the lows!
see the weather thread for rain amounts in the s.plains at the bottom
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#84890
Several counties in SouthCentral KS got 5-7 inches of rain. Severe drought areas farther west got much less than that but the eastern areas of drought are gone in the S.Plains and western areas were helped.
This is what clobbered wheat prices the last several days!!
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
After being sharply lower again today, wheat has come back with MWE leading the way, now in + territory and KW also just behind.
It's uncertain if we can keep going higher and the benefits of the huge rains are all dialed in.
