Crop progress conditions 5-16-22
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Started by metmike - May 16, 2022, 11:58 a.m.
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By Jim_M - May 16, 2022, 12:11 p.m.
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If someone doesn't look at China's pattern of trying to achieve zero infections, you really have to wonder what they know about the virus.  Just my cynical side coming out.  

By metmike - May 16, 2022, 1:53 p.m.
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Yes, agree Jim. Things sure are different out there and much of it is hidden from us. That would be a wonderful NTR discussion!

By metmike - May 16, 2022, 2:11 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #corn is seen 49% planted as of Sunday (5yr avg is 67%) vs 22% last week. #Soybeans are seen 29% planted (39% avg), spring #wheat 43% planted (67% avg). Report is out this afternoon at 3pm CT.

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Sometimes, I can make pretty good guesses on crop conditions. Guessing correctly on the improvement on HRW  last week because of the rains and the deterioration every week since last Fall on the dry weather for HRW.

This one is tricky. The map below is a key factor. 

The wheat crop is already 39% P/VP, most of that the HRW crop, so it's impossible to make a VP crop worse since there is no "dead" category. There was likely some deterioration though in the worst places. It's hard to know if the earlier rains still benefited a few spots on the margin but last weeks heat had to have hurt the HRW crop that was F and P already.

With that heat, you can bet alot of C and S got planted. I usually do better predicting planting when we have delays. Producers can plant an incredible amount in a short time with today's planters. Also, huge planting the last couple of days often does not show up in the latest report.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220514.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - May 17, 2022, 1:54 a.m.
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Crop rating/planting USDA

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/8336h188j/ng452n96t/np194f69p/prog2122.pdf

Not surprisingly/as expected(for me), the wheat in VP category had the biggest change +3. This came from a -1 in the P and a -2 in the good category. So the ratings deteriorated but the market was supposed to be expecting a +1% improvement.

-7c on the HRW price right now, suggests that others expected this deterioration. 

Corn had as much planted as expected.

Beans were +1% planted vs expectations.

Spring wheat was +3% planted vs expectations

By metmike - May 17, 2022, 1:55 a.m.
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@kannbwx

As of Sunday, U.S. #corn was 49% planted, #soybeans 30% and spring #wheat 39%. Corn and spring wheat are well behind averages. Winter wheat conditions dropped to 27% good/exc, though the trade expected a slight improvement.

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By metmike - May 17, 2022, 1:58 a.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #corn was 49% planted as of Sunday, up from 22% a week earlier but behind the five-year average of 67%. Trade expected 49%. This is the third slowest pace for the date in more than 25 years.

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A lot of #corn planting was done in major states last week except North Dakota. The top producing states are all well behind average with the most pronounced delays in the western belt (Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa). Iowa and Illinois crossed the 50% mark last week.

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By metmike - May 17, 2022, 2:01 a.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #soybeans were 30% planted as of Sunday, behind the 5-year average of 39%. Those delays are not yet as severe as those for corn or spring wheat. Last year, soybean planting was super fast and 58% complete by the same date.

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Barely any #soybeans are planted in North Dakota and Minnesota's pace is also extremely slow. 30% nationally vs 39% average is not too severe a delay so long as it does not worsen in the next week or so.

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By metmike - May 17, 2022, 2:03 a.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. spring #wheat was 39% planted as of Sunday, the slowest for the date since 2011. The five-year average is 67% but 83% had been planted last year. North Dakota had planted 17% (60% is avg) and Minnesota just 5% (75% is avg). ND+MN grow 2/3 of the crop.

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North Dakota is planting spring #wheat at about the slowest pace possible. 17% complete as of Sunday is better than only 1995 and 2011 for the date, barely. Conditions have been super wet this spring. ND was set to plant 46% of the U.S. spring wheat acreage this year.

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By metmike - May 17, 2022, 2:06 a.m.
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@kannbwx


Mid-May U.S. winter #wheat conditions (% good/excellent) vs average. Note conditions in the top states: Kansas 24% Oklahoma 13% Texas 5% Colorado 19% Montana 11% These 5 states planted 63% of the U.S. winter wheat crop this year.

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metmike: It's entirely the HRW crop obliterating the ratings because of the severe drought in those areas. For just the HRW crop, this might be the lowest rating ever!

By metmike - May 18, 2022, 10:12 a.m.
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N plains will dry out to plant corn and wheat. S.plains gets some rain.  See weather.

By metmike - May 18, 2022, 12:11 p.m.
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The grains(WHEAT) are either testing support, or if they fail here.......sending out gap and crap buying exhaustion signals/technical signatures of at least a short term top.

By metmike - May 19, 2022, 1:48 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#India cut its #wheat harvest estimate to 106.4 million tonnes from what was supposed to be a record 111.3 mmt, though many traders think it could be closer to 100 mmt after the March heat wave. 106 mmt would be the smallest crop in 3 years, 100 the smallest in 4.

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By metmike - May 19, 2022, 1:50 p.m.
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Wheat is trading better planting  MWE  N.Plains and rains HRW in the S.Plains.

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                                    


            

                

By metmike - May 19, 2022, 1:54 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Never hurts to refresh on these maps. This is where #corn, #soybeans and spring #wheat are grown in the USA. That's why record yields can never be taken for granted or expected every year - takes favorable weather across a very large span of the country.

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metmike:

Here's the Winter Wheat map/HRW:

Winter Wheat: Planted Acreage by County

By metmike - May 19, 2022, 1:55 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Good news for the main growing areas for #corn & #soybeans - drought has receded in the last two months, esp in places like Iowa. Drought is also down in North Dakota, but now there's excess moisture. April was the 2nd wettest in 128 years of record for ND. Also the 8th coldest.

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By metmike - May 19, 2022, 1:56 p.m.
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@kannbwx

CPC sees the chance for June to be warmer-than-usual across much of the U.S. #Corn Belt but drier conditions are possible in the Plains. A warm June isn't bad for most spring-planted crops as it aids early growth, but decent rains are preferable. Want to avoid hot & dry July/Aug.

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