INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 26, 2022, 7:58 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, May 26, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 218K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +21K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1317000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -25K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1023.8K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 902.2K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 334.1K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous -1.4%)

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +8.0%)

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -0.8%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.0%)

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.8%)

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous -0.6%)

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.2%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +2.7%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Pending Home Sales Index

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 103.7)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -1.2%)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -8.2%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET, EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1732B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +89B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. May Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 28)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 49)

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 25)

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 34)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

1630/2030           Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, May 27, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 65.2)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.5)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.4%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 69.4)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,353.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 12,594.00. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 13,555.25. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 11,491.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4095.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4095.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4275.75. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3807.50. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 146-25. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 137-30. Second support is May's low crossing at 134-30.



June T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.149 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.160 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 121.090. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 122-211. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.160. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.085. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:July crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $116.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $113.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $116.43. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.24.  



July heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $3.9282 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4724 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 17th high crossing at $3.8324. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $3.9282. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4724. Second support is is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.2642.



July unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.3393 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $3.8771. Second resistance is unknown.First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.4236. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.3393.    



July Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.175 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 9.437. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.175. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.065.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $105.07. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.72. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $101.65. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.22.  



The June Euro was higher overnight as it remains poised to extend the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07829 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05676 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07829. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $1.09585. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05676. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.03615.  



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2784 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2428 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 1.2638. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2784. First support is May's low crossing at 1.2156. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.1914.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04863 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01973 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.04540. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04863. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01973. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.99485.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $78.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.65. Second support is May's low crossing at $76.46.



The June Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.079401 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077638 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March renews the decline off January's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.079401. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.080582. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077638. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.076215.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average $1904.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1834.00 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1904.00. Second is April's high crossing at $2003.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10.



July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.905 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.905. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 23.345. First support is May's low crossing at $20.420. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.



July copper was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 5th high crossing at 4.4400 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1315 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 4.4400. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5152. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1315. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it extends this week's downside breakout of the April-May trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.68 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $8.10 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $8.10 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.70. Second support is broken resistance marked by the March 7th high crossing at $7.47.  



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with March's high appears to have been posted with last-Tuesday's high. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.42 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted, while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.91 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above May's high crossing at $12.48 would renew the rally off March's low while opening the door for a possible test of the February-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.34 1/2. First resistance is May's high crossing at $12.84. Second resistance is the February-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.42 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.98 1/2.  



July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.20 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. Second resistance is the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.20 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.54 1/2.



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.63 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.63 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.77 1/2. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.52 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the April 22nd high crossing at $17.34 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $17.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.52 1/4. Second support is the May 9th low crossing at $15.78.  

 

July soybean meal was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $442.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $416.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 3rd high crossing at $435.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $442.10. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $362.50.



July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.25 is the next downside target. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is the overnight low crossing at 78.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.25.   

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $1.10 at $107.95. 



July hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $106.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.11. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $121.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $106.39. Second support is May's low crossing at $97.37. 



August cattle closed down $0.23 at $132.53 



August cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $128.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.21. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $136.23. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $130.28. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $128.54.   



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.20 at $167.87. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at $152.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.79. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $173.47. First support is Monday's low crossing at $162.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at $152.22.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 20.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month's rally, April's high crossing at 23.77 is the next upside target.                   



July cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the December-2021 low crossing at 23.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.94 would signal that a short-term low has been posted and could lead to additional gains near-term.            



July sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 20.46 is the next upside target.                    



July cotton closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - May 26, 2022, 9:55 a.m.
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Thanks very much  tallpine!

By metmike - May 26, 2022, 10:17 a.m.
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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#84890

Several counties in SouthCentral KS got 5-7 inches of rain. Severe drought areas farther west got much less than that but the eastern areas of drought are gone in the S.Plains and western areas were helped.

This is what clobbered wheat prices the last several days!!

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours