INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - May 26, 2022, 4:36 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, May 27, 2022  



8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)



8:30 AM ET. April Advance Economic Indicators Report



10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 65.2)

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.5)

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.4%)

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 69.4)



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher for the fifth-day in a row on Thursday and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,339.89 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,655.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 31,970.76 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.  If the Dow renews the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 29,814.73 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 32,770.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,655.94. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 31,395.89. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 29,814.73.  



The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,372.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,372.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,512.75. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 11,491.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.



The June S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Thursday and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4031.36 signaling that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the May 18th high crossing at 4095.00 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off January's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 4095.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4277.42. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2020 rally crossing at 3894.79. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50. 



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed unchanged at 141-27. 



June T-bonds closed unchanged on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 143-02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 27th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 146-25. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 137-30. Second support is May's low crossing at 134-30.



June T-notes closed up 20 pts. at 120.210.



June T-notes closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.086 signals that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.160 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.211. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.160. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.085. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the April 25th low, March's high crossing at $116.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $114.83. Second resistance crossing at March's high crossing at $116.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.29.  



July heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the May high crossing at $3.9282 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4742 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $3.8768. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $3.9282. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4742. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.2642.     



July unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.4236 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3.8771. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.4236. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.3402.      



July Henry natural gas posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Thursday signaling that a short-term top appears to have been posted with today's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline crossing at 10.299 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.157 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.447. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.157. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.058.      



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it remains poised to extend the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.33. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $105.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.22. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $99.81.  



The June Euro closed higher on Thursday and remains poised to extend the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.83. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $109.59. First support is May's low crossing at $103.62. Second support is the long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $102.47.



The June British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 4th high crossing at 1.2638 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 4th high  crossing at 1.2638. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2784. First support is May's low crossing at 1.2156. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.1914.  

 

The June Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday as it posted its highest close for the month. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04863 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01973 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04863. Second resistance is the April 12th high crossing at 1.07960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01973. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.99485.



The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.66 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.70. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 80.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.66. Second support is May's low crossing at 76.60. 



The June Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.079399 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.079266. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.079399. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077636. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.076215.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



June gold closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1904.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1835.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1743.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1904.20. Second resistance is the April 29th high crossing at $1921.30. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1789.90. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $1743.10.  



July silver posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 22.215 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at 19.158 is the downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 22.215. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 23.345. First support is May's low crossing at 20.240. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at 19.158.        



July copper closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 5th high crossing at 4.4400 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1315 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 4.4400. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5157. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1315. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed down $0.07 1/4-cents at $7.65. 



July corn closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.70 confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews this year's rally, April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. Second resistance is the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing near $8.43 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.55. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.12 1/2.     



July wheat closed down $0.05 at $11.43 1/4.  



July wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.43 would confirm that a double top with March's high has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.34 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $12.84. Second resistance is the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.34 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.98 3/4.



July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04 3/4-cents at $12.28 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.21 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews this year's rally, the January-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $13 79 1/4. Second resistance isthe January-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.21 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.54 3/4.



July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.11 3/4-cents at $12.92 1/4.



July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.64 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.64 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.77 3/4. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed up $0.45 1/2 at $17.26 1/2.



July soybeans closed sharply higher on Thursday falling just short of testing the contract high of $17.41 posted in February. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally February's high crossing at $17.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.54 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.54 1/2. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $16.08 3/4.  



July soybean meal closed up $4.00 at $428.20. 



July soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $442.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $442.30. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is May's low crossing at $395.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $384.10.



July soybean oil closed up 160 pts. at 80.52. 



July soybean oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 82.05 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.25. Second support is April's low crossing at 67.52. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $3.88 at $111.83. 



July hogs closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.96. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $121.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.45. Second support is May's low crossing at $97.37. 



August cattle closed up $0.08 at $132.60 



August cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $128.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.05. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $136.16. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $130.28. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $128.54.   



August Feeder cattle closed down $1.28 at $166.68. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at $152.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.61. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $173.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at $162.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at $152.22.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If July renews this month's rally, April's high crossing at 23.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 20.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                   



July cocoa closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted and could lead to additional gains near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the December-2021 low crossing at 23.66 is the next downside target.             



July sugar closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 20.46 is the next upside target.                    



July cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - May 26, 2022, 8:04 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!

I agree with the big reversal lower in natural gas.........especially on a bullish EIA report but this was a short squeeze from the expiring June contract.

The amount in storage is still low, with extremely high energy prices but  the war on fossil fuels is creating some adverse conditions for investments in ng and oll and making it uncertain what the response will be to these higher prices vs the past.

The fake green energy crowd is screaming we need more of what caused this problem.........wind and solar, to fix the problem.

As long as energy prices stay very high, everything will have a transportation premium dialed into the price. The most likely scenario that causes lower prices is that this kills the economy too and stifles demand.

That's what happened in 2008. 


NG  is also used to produce much of the worlds fertilizer. Much of the increase in yields in the last half century is the result of man made fertilizer. In the soils and in the air(CO2).

Killing fossil fuels will kill that too and reduce global food production which means less supply and continued high prices.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/84775/#84782