INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 27, 2022, 8:11 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, May 27, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 65.2)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.5)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.4%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 69.4)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,345.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 12,594.00. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 13,555.25. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 11,491.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of 2018-2021 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 11,324.15.



The June S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4095.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4095.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4270.56. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3807.50. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 3759.50. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 142-28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 146-25. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 137-30. Second support is May's low crossing at 134-30.



June T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.103 opens the door for additional short-term gains and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 122-211. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.160 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 121.090. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 122-211. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.160. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.085. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:July crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $116.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $114.99. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $116.43. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.63.  



July heating oil was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $3.9282 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.7052 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.8800. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $3.9282. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4898. Second support is is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.2642.



July unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $3.8771 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $3.5370 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $3.8771. Second resistance is unknown.First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.5370. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.4236. Third support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.3559.    



July Henry natural gas was lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.229 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 9.447. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.229. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.131.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.28. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $105.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.30. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $99.81.  



The June Euro was slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07746 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05742 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07746. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $1.09585. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05742. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.03615.  



The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2773 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2427 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2773. Second resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.3145. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2427. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2156.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04807 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02030 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.04615. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04807. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02030. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.99485. 

 

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $78.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.69. Second support is May's low crossing at $76.46.



The June Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.079285 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077707 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.079285. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.080582. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077707. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.076215.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average $1902.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1839.60 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1902.30. Second is April's high crossing at $2003.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10.



July silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 5th high crossing at $23.345 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 23.345. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.688. First support is May's low crossing at $20.420. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.



July copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 5th high crossing at 4.4400 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1315 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 4.4400. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5070. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1315. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it extends this week's breakout below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.71. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, broken resistance crossing at $7.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.84 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $8.10 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $8.10 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.55. Second support is broken resistance marked by the March 7th high crossing at $7.47.  



July wheat was lower overnight and remains poised to test the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.00. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.89 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $12.84. Second resistance is the February-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.00. Second support is May's low crossing at $10.34 1/4.  



July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. Second resistance is the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.57 1/2.



July Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.82 1/2. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $17.41 would mark a possible upside breakout of this year's trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the all-time high crossing at $17.89. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.56 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.56 3/4. Second support is the May 9th low crossing at $15.78.  

 

July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $441.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $416.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 3rd high crossing at $435.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $441.50. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $362.50.



July soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.47 is the next downside target. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 78.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.47.   


Comments
By metmike - May 27, 2022, 10:19 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

NG much cooler forecast. European model was -6 CDDs