INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 31, 2022, 8:03 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, May 31, 2022    

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index

 

9:00 AM ET. March U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 

9:00 AM ET. March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.4%)

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +18.6%)

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.4%)

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +20.0%; previous +20.2%)

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.7%)

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +19.8%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May  Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 55.9; previous 56.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Consumer Confidence Index

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 103.9; previous 107.3)

 

                       Expectation Idx

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 152.6)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. May Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (expected 1.3; previous 1.1)

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 10.8)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. April Agricultural Prices

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +6.3%)

 



 

 

Wednesday, June 1, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 315.5)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 225.5)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 794.9)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.9%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +12.4%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +11.4%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May US Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 57.4; previous 59.2)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 54.5; previous 55.4)

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 84.6)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 50.9)

 

                       Inventories (previous 51.6)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 53.5)

 

                       Production Idx (previous 53.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 

                       New Construction (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. May Global Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 52.2)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

4:00 AM ET. May Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.6M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.2M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)

 



 

 

Thursday, June 2, 2022   

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. May Challenger Job-Cut Report

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +14%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. May ADP National Employment Report

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +301000; previous +247000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs

 

                       Non-Farm Productivity (expected -7.5%; previous +6.6%)

 

                       Unit Labor Costs (expected +11.6%; previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 208K; previous 210K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1346000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +31K)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous +2.2%)

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.4%)

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +2.5%)

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1812B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +80B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 419.801M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.019M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.707M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.482M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.921M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.657M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 93.2%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.684M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.023M)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. May Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, June 3, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May U.S. Employment Report

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +325K; previous +428K)

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.6%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.85)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.31%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.2%; previous +5.46%)

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +22K)

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +406K)

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.2%)

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 210K)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 719.8K)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 244K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May US Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 54.3; previous 55.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May ISM Report On Business Services PMI

 

                       Services PMI (expected 56.8; previous 57.1)

 

                       Business Activity Idx (previous 59.1)

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 84.6)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 49.5)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 54.6)

 



 

 

Monday, June 6, 2022   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Employment Trends Index

 

                       ETI (previous 120.18)

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. May Global Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 51.9)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,448.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,158.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 12,883.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,448.62. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,158.55. Second support is May's low crossing at 11,491.25.



The June S&P 500 was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low, Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4266.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4004.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4202.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4266.02. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4004.32. Second support is May's low crossing at 3807.50. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139-29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 142-20 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into early-June. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 143-09. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 146-25. First support is the May 18th low crossing at 137-30. Second support is May's low crossing at 134-30.



June T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 18th low crossing at 118.160 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 122-211 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 120.249. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 122-211. First support is the May 18th low crossing at 118.160. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.085. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:July crude oil was higher overnight and trading above the March high as it renews the rally off the April-2020 low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at $122.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $119.43. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $122.88. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.07.  



July heating oil was sharply higher overnight and posted a new contract high as it extended the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.7476 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $4.1340. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.7476. Second support is is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5120.



July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.7471 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $4.1340. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.7471. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5119.    



July Henry natural gas was lower overnight following last-Thursday's key reversal down as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.287 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 9.447. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 10.299. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.287. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.206.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the April 21st low crossing at $99.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.07. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $105.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $101.43. Second support is the April 21st low crossing at $99.81.  



The June Euro was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07676 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05852 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07676. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $1.09585. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05852. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.03615.  



The June British Pound was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2762 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2434 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2762. Second resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.3145. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2434. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2156.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at 1.05683 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02127 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04740. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at 1.05683. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03270. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02127. 

 

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the April 21st high crossing at $80.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $80.24. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $80.61. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.77. Second support is May's low crossing at $76.46.



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077758 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.079162 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.079162. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April decline crossing at 0.080582. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.077758. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.076215.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average $1900.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1842.00 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average $1900.40. Second is April's high crossing at $2003.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1790.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1743.10.



July silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 5th high crossing at $23.345 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 23.345. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.614. First support is May's low crossing at $20.420. Second support is the 62% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at $19.158.



July copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 5th high crossing at 4.4400 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.2035 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the May 5th high crossing at 4.4400. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4997. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.2035. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, broken resistance crossing at $7.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.83 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First resistance is the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $7.55. Second support is broken resistance marked by the March 7th high crossing at $7.47. 



July wheat was lower overnight and remains poised to test the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.02. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $12.84. Second resistance is the February-2008 high crossing at $13.34 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.02. Second support is May's low crossing at $10.34 1/4.  



July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight and is poised to extend the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.60 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $12.66 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. Second resistance is the all-time high posted on the monthly continuation chart of January-2008 crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.60 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4.



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $12.39 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes this year's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $14.52. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $12.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.87 1/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $17.41 would open the door for a possible test of the all-time high crossing at $17.89. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.60 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.60 1/2. Second support is the May 9th low crossing at $15.78.  

 

July soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $440.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 3rd high crossing at $435.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $440.90. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $384.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $362.50.



July soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.67 is the next downside target. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the May 16th high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 78.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.67.   


Comments
By metmike - May 31, 2022, 11:35 a.m.
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Thanks much tallpine!

More heavy rains in the forecast for S.Plains.

Just the opposite of the "dome of death" the market was expecting for June, because of the La Nina and every long range forecast this year.

It's very cool and wet for much of the Midwest.