@kannbwx

Initial U.S. #corn conditions come in at 73% good-to-excellent, well above the trade guess of 68%.

 Conditions for #soybeans and spring #wheat will be available next week. 5% of the winter wheat crop was harvested as of Sunday.

@kannbwx

#Corn in the heart of the U.S. Midwest (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana) is doing unusually well for the time of year, but drought is curbing health in Colorado and Texas.

 Conditions are considered on the portion of crop emerged, which is only 22% in North Dakota but 78% nationally.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

81% of North Dakota's #corn was planted as of June 5, still the slowest pace on record. Final planting date for full crop insurance eligibility was May 25 for most of the state. Planting corn too late in ND is risky because of the chances of early frost.

@kannbwx

The final date to plant spring #wheat in North Dakota was June 5 (for some parts it was May 31), but only 74% was planted as of June 5. That implies some farmers plan to keep going but for how much longer? ND grows half of the country's protein-rich spring wheat.

@kannbwx

Only 41% of North Dakota's #soybeans were planted as of June 5, the smallest ever % for the date. ND plants the 4th largest U.S. soy area and its final insurance planting date is June 10. Farmers will plant a bit beyond that date, but there is a lot left and time is running out.

there are also estimates of 5.4 million acres of corn yet to plant

thanks mcfarm,

This is true but its actually a bit LESS than the average.

Latest grain/weather trading discussion.

Would prefer the trading part be here and not the weather thread.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#85419

  MetMike

  As veteran traders, we both have been on the winning and losing side of Friday positions that either panned out with huge profits, or locked limit down losses.  (Cant remember the year, but long 4th July weekend, several thousand ahead on two contracts only to be two limit days down on rain forecasted to suffer a loss!)

  IF, IF we are near weekly highs Friday near the close, I will BUY a put.  LIMITED risk at an extreme "too early" in the season for a 'true' crop scare.  Couple of reasons for put--limited risk, Friday will approach end of near term cycle as a crest (thus time for a "near term" correction), and probably too early for crop damage and/or strong possibility of a forecast change.

Please continue to post your observations; moreover, allow the TRADER in MetMike to once again be "exposed".

MUCH appreciated------------still have fond memories of hurricane and drought profits per METMIKE----and other cautionary, limit exposure posts!!

Thumbs up

Thank tjc,

Especially love conversations like this one with another very experienced trader.

I try to avoid giving trade advise and let traders decide what to do themselves and understand your reasoning in buying a put.

Seasonals/timing, price and current crop condition make being short attractive if we have anything close to average weather or just modest adversity in a few places.

However, despite that I would definitely NOT be short futures over this weekend.

The dome of death potential is greatly elevated right now and personally, I have almost no interest in anything but the long side until the weather models change.

Not just the week 2 weather models but the La Nina forcing on the atmosphere has enough causation with hot/dry Summers to elevate odds of bullish weather beyond those week 2 solutions.

Time that I updated the La Nina/Summer forecast too, since this came up!